tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37845532735215335522024-02-19T14:35:09.997+11:00Casey ex AustraliaThis blog has been moved to blog.caseyhandmer.com . Posts here are no longer updated.Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.comBlogger211125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-4149365590974065842018-12-03T17:44:00.001+11:002018-12-03T17:44:06.107+11:00Blog moved to blog.caseyhandmer.com<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Hello loyal readers. I have moved this blog to WordPress, found at <a href="http://blog.caseyhandmer.com/">blog.caseyhandmer.com</a>.<br />
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Many good new blog posts are in process! See you over there.</div>
Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-61598715619365011692018-11-29T17:12:00.000+11:002018-11-29T17:12:36.178+11:00Mars global hydrology at full MOLA resolution<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Close readers of this blog may remember a post from 2016 where I discussed my early efforts to perform hydrological simulations on Mars. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2016/06/mars-future-hydrology.html&source=gmail&ust=1543558028320000&usg=AFQjCNFkGr-RI55nZfgu-hHKnSaFou4DCw" href="http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2016/06/mars-future-hydrology.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">http://caseyexaustralia.<wbr></wbr>blogspot.com/2016/06/mars-<wbr></wbr>future-hydrology.html</a></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That is, I performed the simulations on my computer, which like me resides on Earth, but the topic was Mars. This was thanks to the incredible Mars Orbital Laser Altimeter (MOLA) dataset, and at length I was able to produce data like the plot below, showing rivers forming between flooded craters.</span></span><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="image.png" class="CToWUd a6T" data-image-whitelisted="" height="199" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&attid=0.1&permmsgid=msg-a:r-530350728513625344&th=1675e13cbde3597e&view=fimg&sz=s0-l75-ft&attbid=ANGjdJ8tt3Bu2_TxTqluWai2ZEHk6H3anMI1SlU1WcX9ZLeri5dzlzCd6seMrAQRZ6XqWdyuZZ0aUe-jFxg1MEIL1hGWfIGRUNn2QtLnQp0KiNpWsqZBP016ECwrMOI&disp=emb&realattid=ii_jp0wo9p50" style="margin-right: 0px; outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At the end of the blog, I mentioned that this simulation failed to exploit the full MOLA dataset. Indeed, I had reduced the resolution from a maximum of about 500m to around 15km. 15km isn't really enough to resolve finer erosive details on Mars, or get a good look at the landscape, but it's all I had the time and expertise to do at the time.<br /><br />Earlier this year, I decided to revisit the problem and resolved to teach myself how to use Python for these sorts of problems. If you want to follow along, you can clone my repo at <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://github.com/CHandmer/water-flow&source=gmail&ust=1543558028320000&usg=AFQjCNFH0p_ankbm5zZUuV3F6pI6iBHVFA" href="https://github.com/CHandmer/water-flow" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">https://github.com/<wbr></wbr>CHandmer/water-flow</a> and run your own simulation. And yes, I will take pull requests if you have an improvement or modification!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="image.png" class="CToWUd a6T" data-image-whitelisted="" height="200" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&attid=0.2&permmsgid=msg-a:r-530350728513625344&th=1675e13cbde3597e&view=fimg&sz=s0-l75-ft&attbid=ANGjdJ9g8_A1--t6S0YOL_djuVu07KWZ4ARXn6ghlt2PdDTEyXfaz6YDgX8Zu63YDCyf5W2Xm6t7XeZCS4h4clb33mF83dh1tjQr6JXDOCLmn9P1Dl5Tbr0IVMtoqvc&disp=emb&realattid=ii_jp251umn1" style="outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="400" /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />I found simulating the full resolution model quite challenging. To recap, the full MOLA dataset encapsulates the topography of the entire planet at 500m resolution. This corresponds to an array of size 20,000x40,000. When other aspects of my data structure are included, the total file size is about 100GB per time step! Naturally, I broke the global domain into 32 smaller subdomains that could actually fit within RAM.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To enable quick convergence to the solution, I began by dumping 150m of water (which can be adjusted in the code) uniformly all over the planet, then turned on an evaporation/precipitation routine, and ran the whole thing at greatly-reduced resolution. When the solution approached convergence, I doubled the resolution and repeated the procedure. All in all, I doubled the resolution about 10 times, achieving a global solution in roughly two weeks on my 2011-era laptop. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Once I had the complete data, I wanted to reproduce my earlier plots and depict information about river/lake/ocean depth, flow rate, gradient, and so on. Despite careful use of perceptually uniform color maps and other tricks, I found the results mostly unsatisfactory. They just didn't feel right. So I carefully backed up the data and moved onto other things.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But every now and then I'd lie awake at night and wonder "How can I plot this 100GB dataset in a satisfactory way?" At 300dpi a printed poster would stretch 10 feet by 20 feet! It's a big planet. And I wanted what amounted to a color function that was both beautiful and precise. That showed the accessibility of the landscape and told a story about it too. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last week, I was talking with some friends about the pathological drainage patterns of the California/Nevada/Utah desert when it finally occurred to me how to solve this problem. Humans have built in hardware that can read landscape. If I could transform the data into a familiar enough landscape, our brains would interpret and read what was going on. That was the hope, although of course Mars has many more craters than Earth.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So I took some screenshots from Google Earth and analysed their pixels in the space of hue, saturation, and brightness (HSV). This is an alternative to the more familiar red green blue (RGB) encoding of color. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="image.png" class="CToWUd a6T" data-image-whitelisted="" height="270" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&attid=0.3&permmsgid=msg-a:r-530350728513625344&th=1675e13cbde3597e&view=fimg&sz=s0-l75-ft&attbid=ANGjdJ8xQY5wFqqnrHjwuzl1rV-i-9--uzemPxumRhKbskVQUerJQh2AnBvdwvjXAYOZAjim3aQg0uDZBxTwQspp0bxMM-vhSOB3rNU-rkxVw2wwpHcRy2aFTCVVHCc&disp=emb&realattid=ii_jp25jify3" style="margin-right: 0px; outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="400" /> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="image.png" class="CToWUd a6T" data-image-whitelisted="" height="279" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&attid=0.4&permmsgid=msg-a:r-530350728513625344&th=1675e13cbde3597e&view=fimg&sz=s0-l75-ft&attbid=ANGjdJ8i4xc09ZwTgQIp3yvzoHI-8R9jKznZEze4C4bX4WatVuyHbwrg4H38n6q1WBDEsYouCwXc-5jdkZwTNjNt66YqT7rrQDZJZDkS0iC_TF02K3uvjWLeFtKokBA&disp=emb&realattid=ii_jp25kbdb4" style="margin-right: 0px; outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="image.png" class="CToWUd a6T" data-image-whitelisted="" height="303" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&attid=0.5&permmsgid=msg-a:r-530350728513625344&th=1675e13cbde3597e&view=fimg&sz=s0-l75-ft&attbid=ANGjdJ9caFDjUP59NrT28L2iMdyq5cvtCxc7TAlMw09ImWmdrwEC5gmhuNDkRCk1NoeBoungYlIeT48Gi1oh8x3luP0E6vXzdEBWB1PFOLb8gD4CzdEtYnl6UzDTy94&disp=emb&realattid=ii_jp25lont5" style="outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The trend here is from reasonably bright, red/pink, desaturated landscape to blue, dark, saturated water, via green, dark, desaturated foliage. I decided to use a Viking-derived true color image of Mars to provide the color of the unflooded landscape; a generic pinky red was too uniform and blank looking. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="image.png" class="CToWUd a6T" data-image-whitelisted="" height="200" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&attid=0.6&permmsgid=msg-a:r-530350728513625344&th=1675e13cbde3597e&view=fimg&sz=s0-l75-ft&attbid=ANGjdJ8rno9MVX7yPgU_iBp9M_QLDRtcLEBzZer8crIDXjeGnqzoSjV6PjmkkLjjdMxn-NpTTKYfM6EJav599b0lfbFK-0J1vZpT8aWTwjaD1k9NOF2cuG031ShsyVE&disp=emb&realattid=ii_jp25obxs6" style="outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At full resolution (10000x20000 pixels) this image is only 2x lower resolution than the original MOLA dataset! That corresponds to roughly 1km per pixel. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://astrogeology.usgs.gov/search/map/Mars/Viking/Color/Mars_Viking_ClrMosaic_global_925m&source=gmail&ust=1543558028320000&usg=AFQjCNHWM3xPbp-O4nxU9bNi3SwC19xruA" href="https://astrogeology.usgs.gov/search/map/Mars/Viking/Color/Mars_Viking_ClrMosaic_global_925m" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">https://astrogeology.<wbr></wbr>usgs.gov/search/map/Mars/<wbr></wbr>Viking/Color/Mars_Viking_<wbr></wbr>ClrMosaic_global_925m</a> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Once I had finished tweaking a function that took the altitude, gradient, slope, and water depth of a particular pixel and output a color, all that remained was to render the entire image. This took quite a while, mostly because of bugs that I only discovered half way through the process! For the final step, I was able to use the synthetic terraformed Mars surface image I had produced as an image layer in Google Earth to reproduce the "click and zoom" experience we all know and love.<br /><br />I'm quite happy with the results. At the global scale, it looks really awesome.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But you can also zoom in to look at tiny details!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="image.png" class="CToWUd a6T" data-image-whitelisted="" height="190" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&attid=0.8&permmsgid=msg-a:r-530350728513625344&th=1675e13cbde3597e&view=fimg&sz=s0-l75-ft&attbid=ANGjdJ-_KRDK-2fhdiO-5GMejoQ8uXsjiirh7gk8OMYOoPX5wc-JECJH6pv5KX2JgqC6f7eRDP4mAn5ZNVoTz-hM9F3oUKp6W2dxITUxJQIIMs27DU_1Fe4kVOz4UvM&disp=emb&realattid=ii_jp26xus111" style="outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And further!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="image.png" class="CToWUd a6T" data-image-whitelisted="" height="247" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&attid=0.9&permmsgid=msg-a:r-530350728513625344&th=1675e13cbde3597e&view=fimg&sz=s0-l75-ft&attbid=ANGjdJ8rotpBSHOsu2B-wNQy2TH0leKP1Zs7_f5g8CBEb6Bwff0MNNSJ9Es3YiRMa1c-HAJFxG7Lo8XOVYGSqEZOmim6FGga12aE5_qMpFUvJpdi6Iq3996_F7HGOyE&disp=emb&realattid=ii_jp270a9o12" style="outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As always, if one zooms too far, pixels appear! </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="image.png" class="CToWUd a6T" data-image-whitelisted="" height="249" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&attid=0.10&permmsgid=msg-a:r-530350728513625344&th=1675e13cbde3597e&view=fimg&sz=s0-l75-ft&attbid=ANGjdJ8_UnW0gxHTwpZwtPcFw_kwE0nqgGGq4olHWOwPkoZfz3p1QeZTz9YnaIDC6XUm5bEo-yh8tuYkgYYBYgEk2puE9OU-uvBptEBZjppbmN7-yZqUH7vuoKoCUx0&disp=emb&realattid=ii_jp2714h113" style="outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To save you the trouble of replicating my plotting algorithms, you can access the full resolution renders here: <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://drive.google.com/open?id%3D1V-NUV1hnynzTr-6Q-FY5xo3cAC4ryLHi&source=gmail&ust=1543558028320000&usg=AFQjCNHc72Ue4XavKeWP-IzGJ3C4USqT2Q" href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=1V-NUV1hnynzTr-6Q-FY5xo3cAC4ryLHi" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">https://drive.google.<wbr></wbr>com/open?id=1V-NUV1hnynzTr-6Q-<wbr></wbr>FY5xo3cAC4ryLHi</a> . If you're interested in getting access to the raw data and don't have time to run the simulation yourself (preferably with unique water and precipitation values) then get in touch. I'd love to see what other people can make out of this data!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As happy as I am with this plot, it is not perfect. Perhaps in future I will find time to fix the following issues:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- Vegetation is a huge hack. It shouldn't be too hard to program vegetation color and cover according to insolation angle, altitude, latitude, and water availability. Similarly, high altitude water could be colored for snow.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- Hydrological accuracy isn't great. Some sections of the planet have much too much water, and others much too little, based on existing erosive patterns. Some of this is due to resolution limitations, and some is due to poor convergence of underlying data. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- Climate accuracy. I devised precipitation to be proportional to altitude, as with orogenic rainfall. But prevailing winds (which I didn't model) would cause rain shadowing and other excitement. I think the next decade will see the maturation of generic global climate models, which would be awesome to apply here.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- Resolution limitation. I recently discovered that the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter's CTX imager has imaged about 60% of the planet at 6m stereo resolution, so now I'm itching to prototype a data pipeline to perform photogrammetric enhancement of the MOLA dataset. At 6m resolution, the global topo dataset would grow from 8 billion numbers to about 50 trillion, and even my laptop might struggle to compute the full river systems. But 6m would be adequate to resolve crater canyon drainages and enable even more zoom than ever before.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I will continue to post screen grabs of enticing bays, islands, and crater chains at <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://twitter.com/cjhandmer&source=gmail&ust=1543558028320000&usg=AFQjCNFddatdcYcfeOZSNmoloT10Y4uT_g" href="http://twitter.com/cjhandmer" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">twitter.com/cjhandmer</a> from time to time, as I explore this new landscape and imagine the possibilities. </span></div>
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Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-72007111841268223232018-10-17T19:09:00.000+11:002018-10-17T19:10:00.982+11:00Short story: Russian Salt and Snow<div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-4d89f731-7fff-b5f8-a96d-b0841d27d9b1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial;white-space:pre-wrap">(This story was originally inspired by a sequence in the non-fiction adventure book "Five Months on a Leaky Boat" (<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Five-Months-Leaky-Boat-Kozel-ebook/dp/B005HSH6WA">https://www.amazon.com/Five-Months-Leaky-Boat-Kozel-ebook/dp/B005HSH6WA</a>) where the adventurers visit a tiny Siberian town with a dark secret, on the Yenisey river. I refined the basic ideas toward a novel length work, drawing heavily on my own, somewhat less drastic, experiences in the wilder parts of North East Asia. In 2016, I redeveloped it in short story form, and have intermittently operated on various serious narrative issues ever since. I'm 90% happy with this, and 100% convinced I've given the fundamental idea a decent try and, more importantly, would rather spend time developing newer, more optimistic story concepts! This story is probably more appropriate for older readers, and I wouldn't describe it as warm and fuzzy. Enjoy! C.H.)</span><br></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial;white-space:pre-wrap"><br></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="background-color:transparent;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial;white-space:pre-wrap"><br></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Russian Salt and Snow</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Casey Handmer 2018</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><br></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">***</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Without salt, the radiation will build up in our glands," said Misha. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">He rowed their dented metal boat between trunks of broken concrete looming out of the night. What might once have been a wharf now cradled a lazy eddy. Beyond, a gash in the river's bank.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"This is the only town we have seen yet that hasn't been bombed, if that cooking smoke we saw yesterday is any guide," Lana said.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">A crescent moon cut briefly through the clouds, showing a drowned spit of sediment and a shallow bay. Misha pulled the oars through the silent black water.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Can we trade for salt?" Chaika asked.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Trade what?" Lana took a breath. "As Nikolai would have said, we will 'scavenge' it," She sat behind Misha on the middle seat, facing forwards. Chaika perched at the stern, mindlessly picking at a net holding their meagre supplies. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"This town used to be called Yakutsk. My grandfather's brother was sent here," Misha said.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The boat nosed gently for the inlet. Chaika pointed the snake-like head of their Geiger counter at the water and it clicked faintly. Her eyes reflected the golden glowing dial. Its needle flicked like her heartbeat.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"This creek is not too bad." Chaika's voice registered her surprise. "How big was Yakutsk?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"At least a hundred thousand people." With a final push, Misha crunched the hull against the gravel. "It is hard to believe it was overlooked."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">***</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Chaika, take cover." </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">They skidded down a short embankment and crouched low in a roadside ditch.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Lana, what is it?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Their feet disturbed puddles in the moonlight beneath racing clouds. Chaika brushed the earth from her hands and looked around. Nothing.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana stared into the distance, pointed at the supposed source of the noise which had so startled her. She whispered under her breath "We could be surrounded, how would we know?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Chaika agreed. The darkness which had only minutes ago disguised their movement now oozed with shadows and paranoia. Lena began to shiver. It was early spring and the ground was still covered in patches of snow.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Do you want to stay here all night?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Chaika padded down the ditch. Lena followed, checking behind her every third step. Up ahead, a ruin emerged from the night. Cracked prefabricated concrete panels, mud, and a moon-shaded nook they melted into. Lana heard nothing besides the beating of her heart and the shearing of their tired clothes with each fraught breath. Gradually, they felt the night relax around them. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"This must have been some kind of checkpoint back before </span><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-style:italic;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">perestroika</span><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Maybe there's something left. We could wait here until dawn."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Let's clear it and move on. It's still too far to town and I don't want to have to hide all day feeding mosquitoes."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana struck a match, squinting into the sudden flare. Chaika looked around, then gasped in surprise. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Lana, it is a ground squirrel, we're in his house."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana saw it peeking out from between broken slabs. The match licked her fingers and she dropped it, shadows flickering upwards then dropping into darkness. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"It would make a good snack, if we could catch it."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Lana, no! It's too cute. Maybe it has babies?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana chuckled slightly, then stifled a cough. The air seemed to move between them. She struck another match. A tiny girl of maybe twelve years stepped into the light. She smiled in a tentative way, seemed to start to say something. As one, they uttered.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Who are you?" </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The light flickered. The girl's eyes stared with animal intensity. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Grib."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Chaika."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Lana. Grib? You just pop up in the night?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"That's what they say. Please, I'm not dangerous."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The match went out. A voice in the dark. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Where are you going?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"I want to escape Yakutsk. It is cursed. But they say it is impossible to survive in the wild. But here you are. Why do you want to go there anyway?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Chaika and I have been travelling for many weeks and need to obtain salt," said Lana. She tapped the radiation dosimeter pen in her shirt pocket. "Or we will die like the others."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Grib replied. "That's right. My father says the salt has iodine that helps protect against the radiation."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"So there is salt in this town?" Chaika asked.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Yakutsk is a city, the largest left on Earth, they say. And yes, salt by the ton, if you know where to look. But it is a dangerous place. Forsaken."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana reached for Chaika's arm.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"We have no choice. Maybe you can show us where to find the salt. Then, after, we take you with us?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Grib's voice seemed to have come much closer. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Deal."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Grib led them through the predawn darkness. Chaika crept over the landscape like a cat. How little they knew about this skinny girl with big eyes! Lana thought it best to delay telling her about their hideout. The earth exhaled moisture that clung to her eyebrows and temples. Her shoes trod the softly thawing ground and she thought of Misha, back at the camp, and his child growing within her.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">***</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">It is always coldest just before the dawn. Misha carefully flexed his stiff legs and stood up. He wrapped the scratchy blanket around his shoulders and turned towards the lightening eastern sky. They had travelled down the Lena river, brown and swollen by snowmelt, in a small aluminium skiff. They moved under cover of darkness, pulling ashore at dawn, looting abandoned settlements for food and water, then moving on.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Today, they had camped a few miles downstream from Yakutsk, where dense city had begun to fade into the endless boreal forest. Misha wandered between crumbling prefabricated concrete buildings jutting up like ancient teeth. The pavement was littered with rubble, dirty snow, and riven with weeds and trees bursting through every crack. Their leaves glistened with moisture.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">His greatest fear was to be hunted, caught, by some other roving band of survivors with empty minds, or worse, empty stomachs. Nikolai had shown him how to make snares for animals, and today he prepared a set of decoys to warn him if anyone was approaching. He staked out a perimeter with a strand of fishing line and identified a few potential hiding places.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Misha, their hideout secured, took their most precious possession from their boat. He wound the crank to charge the ancient batteries of the Soviet-era Geiger counter, strapped it to his back, and was lost in a world of clicks as particles from the earth, the sky, and fallout conspired to generate tiny lightning bolts inside its electrostatic Muller tube.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">***</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Grib led Lana and Chaika right into the heart of the town. If they had been surprised to see her, imagine her surprise to find them, wandering the wasteland and apparently healthy. Grib spoke, "You know you're not the first strangers who have shown up here?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Where do the others come from?" Chaika asked.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Probably outlying settlements or mines. They all end up there." Grib shrugged towards a shadowy pit. Ruts from cart wheels led right up to the edge.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"So strangers aren't welcome here?" Lana asked. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Grib shrugged again.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">There were few people moving around in the early morning light. As they approached the central neighbourhood they heard the familiar snapping clicks of a Geiger counter, amplified over a large area. Whatever it was tracking was extremely active: the clicks blurred together into a constant screech of white noise. Lana knew better than to ask.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"What's that noise?" Chaika asked.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"I'll show you, since we are already being sneaky." Grib said.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">She led them into a building that faced onto the central square. It was similar in design to many other buildings they had seen. A thick, insulated door. A central stairwell, vandalized post boxes, convection heaters that had once run on central hot water, and crumbling concrete risers. They spiraled up to the top, clambered up a pitted frozen ladder into a crawl space, and moved between piles of old crates, their contents and owners long forgotten. At the edge, a narrow gap afforded a view of the square.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"That building on the far side was the opera house." Grib said. "Yakutsk was nuked, like every other city. But ours was a fizzer. It's still right there, in the foyer, underneath the hole it made as it fell. Its core is unstable but, as of yet, subcritical. In the early days, they monitored it with a geiger counter. Later, they connected it into the square's PA system so everyone could hear how angry it was at any time."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Does anyone go in there now?" Lana asked.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Yes. A kind of madness has descended over this town. We call the bomb 'Tsar', and the fear that Tsar could yet detonate has seeped into the bones of everyone who remains here. Tending to its moods has become the purview of the priesthood. Sometimes it seems to become especially angry..."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Chaika cut in. "Nikolai would know how to placate Tsar. Niko always knew."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Who is Niko?" Asked Grib. Lana replied.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"We lost him."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">***</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Misha walked through this emptying world with his Geiger counter clicking merrily away. Every now and then a twisted lump of metal in the street would warn him away. Yakutsk was far enough from other cities that the fallout here was either chunks of shrapnel that flew in from space like a meteor, or else fine dust that blew on the wind and settled on everything, like snow. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">At first it was just him and Niko. Later, while they were still camping beyond the ruins of Severobaikalsk amidst a dragon's hoard of tinned vegetables, Niko had an idea.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Maybe we should look for other survivors."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Why?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Maybe we can find them before they find us." He looked at their winter hoard of supplies.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Maybe they have some alcohol."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Just up the coast is the town of Nizhneangarsk. I am old, I will search around here. Why don't you hike up there, look for people, and come back after a few days."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Misha packed a bag and set off. He walked through the long autumnal night to stay warm, and following the railway line, and found the town around noon the next day. It was quiet. A couple of hungry looking dogs wandered aimlessly, but the mostly wooden buildings were either burned or empty. Below the railway station, he saw one of the few masonry structures, a single level building, gradually sinking into the swamp. It was also in ruins, but there was no reason for Misha to not be thorough. He wasn't planning on coming back.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The floor was tiled where it wasn't mud, the walls were thick concrete, and a few had graffiti from which he understood it to have been a hospital long ago. In the core of the building, around the boiler room, he smelled human.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Anyone here?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">A noise, but no reply. Misha cautiously followed the sound. He wasn't keen on meeting a lost bear at this time of year. Skinny bears are hungry. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">He found her, hiding behind a doorway. Her eyes were fearful but oddly familiar. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"It's okay, I'm looking for survivors. Are you okay?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">She nodded.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Do you want to come with me?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">She took his hand and stood up. She was shorter than him, about the same age, still shaking with fear. She went with him, and they walked back to the camp that night.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Back at the camp, Niko wondered if she could talk.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Do you have a name?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">She nodded. She ate and drank and, after a week, cautiously cleared her throat.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"My name is Chaika."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Welcome back, Chaika," Niko said. "Misha, she sounds like you."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Why is that?" Wondered Misha. Niko had been around these parts since the beginning.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Misha, Chaika, look at each other. Clearly you are related. Cousins, hmmm?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Misha and Chaika both went round-eyed with surprise. Misha knew better than to ask.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">***</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Enough tourism. Let's find the salt and get moving," Lana said. "I'd be happy to hear all the stories tomorrow or next week."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">They turned back from the window and retraced their steps through the cluttered maze. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">As they approached the hatch way, they heard deep voices at the landing. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"... sighted an unknown woman walking from the north …"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Grib held a finger to her lips. Chaika shrank back into the gloom. Lana tried to breathe quietly. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">A few moments later the voices stopped and footsteps clomped down the stairs. Lana counted to one hundred, then crept toward the hatchway and peered over the side. She didn't see a hulking form step out of the shadows below and, grasping her hair, yank her down through the opening. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana fell heavily on the floor, winded. A bushy beard swam through swirling stars. She kicked out, a yelp of pain, then crisp impact of heavy boot behind her ear.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Chaika saw the assailant heft her limp body over his shoulders and climb down the stairs. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">***</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Misha explored the broken buildings, looking for cool water and anything else that might be useful. One of them was just taller than the surrounding forest. Carefully, he climbed through its broken roof and lay there, soaking up the morning sun. From there he could see the smoke from cooking fires inside the city, rising gently through the still air high into the sky. Like the fires they also breathed air, consumed fuel, and would spread under the right conditions. Hope dies last.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">They had found Lana last, or rather, she had found them. Niko, Chaika, and Misha were climbing the hills west of Baikal looking for springs with uncontaminated water, when Lana had stepped out from behind a tree and asked to help carry the heavy items they had been shuttling back and forth. Lana was in her mid thirties, tall, and thin like the rest of them. She had a sadness in her eyes, a sobriety of purpose.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">They built a lean-to shelter in a protected glade, a pocket valley in the hills. They filled the gaps with brush and, as the days shortened, cut firewood with their hatchet on continual rotating shifts until they were certain they could heat and dry until spring. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Chaika gradually straightened from an hour of splitting timber and watched the sun sink below the horizon. The sky above and on either side was a bright orange triple column of sparkling ice crystals stretching towards the heavens. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Then, with an exhausted slowness giving way to second fury, the dying autumn released its bated breath and drove phalanx after rushing phalanx of marching clouds across the inland sea and crushed them with snow. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">They huddled around the smoky fire. They passed around a luke warm can of beans impaled by a twisted spoon. They splashed their faces with Misha's demonic vodka and slept long hours huddled in their greasy everyday clothes.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">When the storms passed, they dug themselves out and popped out into a winter wonderland. The snow and leafless frosty branches absorbed every sound. Niko suggested that it was now too cold to snow, and he was right. They ran low on food, and trapped mice living under the snow. Misha's vodka ran out. Then it got colder. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">***</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana felt the sun on her face, blinked twice, and was fully alert. The ground blurred past below her. Hanging upside down, she saw a small clutch of rag-wrapped city folk standing at a distance, pointing furtively. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Where are you taking me?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana knew it was pointless to struggle. She and Misha's child were in trouble.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"What's your name?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Don't speak."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The man carried her down an shadowed alley and through a small door in the base of the opera theatre, then dumped her on the crumbling floor.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Speak, brother." </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Father, I found a stranger. This one seems unusually healthy."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Excellent work, Brother Alexander." The Father emerged from the shadows. He was unusually well built, tall, and clothed in the traditional hat and robe, cinched with a length of rope.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Come, girl, we have a special task for you. You are going to help us placate our Tsar for a while longer."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana felt her child kick inside her just once and then nothing.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">***</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The first day of spring, Misha felt the warm breath of life on his cheek. The snow melted to mud, flowers began to burst up through the ground. Birds were nipping the greening buds of trees.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Lana, Misha, how about you reset your snares?" Niko suggested. "The ptarmigans will start lekking soon, and if we can gather enough food we can move camp as soon as next week."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">They walked off into the forest, and within minutes were isolated from the world. Misha thought back to when nearly anyone on Earth was only a cellphone call away. Their route took them on a wide arc through several parallel valleys, each of which had a rapidly running icy stream at its foot. The first few snares came up empty, but not to worry. Things were just getting started. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">At the first stream, a fallen log provided a bridge. Lana went first, holding out her hand to steady Misha, who was carrying a pack. Salmon leapt up the rapids beneath their feet. On the other side, she looked at him. She could tell he had once been a chubby young man. Now slender, stretched by the winter, his eyes retained a merry twinkle, a sense of mirth, that she delighted in. She didn't let go of his hand, and he didn't either.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">At the head of the next valley, the forest broke into a south-facing meadow, with berry bushes just starting to flower. The smell was intoxicating. Lana and Misha walked arm in arm through the meadow's knee high grass, stems leaning beneath poised buds. Lana stopped and looked up at Misha.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Do you think this broken world can still contain love?" She asked. Misha smiled, and lifting his hand, carefully brushed a stray hair from her face.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"I feel it, like it's resonating beneath the ground, just waiting to come out, with all the flowers."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">She kissed him, tentatively at first. Misha wasn't sure what to do. They spread a blanket to hold back the ground's cold and, as though the rest of the world was disintegrating, held each other.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">***</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The Father led Lana up onto the stage, then down among the seats, through the exits, and into the grand foyer. Several extraordinary staircases cascaded one from the next to the front entrance facing the square. The room was lit through the broken ceiling, a ray of sunlight pierced the gloom and dazzled them. Three floors below, at the foot of the largest staircase, the Tsar lurked in the substantial hole it had made on impact. Above its buckled metal skin hung the Geiger counter, its wire fixed to the ceiling high above by rude nails through the decaying stucco. Nearby, some kind of wheeled work platform.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"What is this place?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Here the brothers take the sacrament and placate our deity."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana's stomach knotted with fear. Her feet descended the stairs as though possessed. At the top of the last staircase, before the Tsar, she could feel its radioactive anger fill the room. The Father motioned several hooded brothers to come forward. They picked her up and secured her by the wrists and ankles to the platform. The altar. The brothers quickly left.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The Father pulled on his own hood, and wheeled the Lana between Tsar and the geiger counter. The pitch of its screaming white noise changed immediately. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"The Tsar seems likes his offering today."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">He took a dagger and sliced her palm, sprinkling the blood over the Tsar's mangled carapace. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"O Tsar, grant us leave to live on your poisoned Earth for one more day. We bring you this offering, that your hunger for the Total End of Man may be momentarily sated."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The Geiger counter's pitch seemed to vary, the breathing of a savage beast resting momentarily between sprees of random orgiastic violence. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"The Tsar is exceptionally pleased. I wonder..."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"I am pregnant. Please let us go!"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"So much the better. The offerings will continue until the Tsar is finally at rest."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana could almost taste the radioactive particles her body was absorbing, a metallic texture in her throat.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"When did you become a Father anyway?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"I was once a technician at a power plant. When our God became manifest, I was called to lead the brothers in a new form of worship."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The Father looked at her wounded hand.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"I cannot remain in the presence for long, but I will be back every six hours to repeat the offering."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Until? Until her blood no longer flowed. Lana's mind raced. This was where strangers met their end in Yakutsk.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">***</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Misha left his reverie on the roof. He checked his snares, refilled the water, patched his clothing, and prepared to wait until Chaika and Lana came back, hopefully laden with plenty of salt.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Misha thought of Nikolai. How could they have lost him? What would they do now?</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Niko, Chaika, Lana, and Misha had stopped for the day in a tiny abandoned village. As usual, Niko had taken Misha and the geiger counter into the ruins to scavenge for provisions. Today, they needed water more than anything. Surface water was contaminated with fallout, and the river water was brown with mud that was too radioactive to filter. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Let's check this building," Niko suggested.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"It looks like it could fall down at any moment," Misha said.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"The roofline is crooked, but if it survived the winter snow and the freeze-thaw, it will be okay for another season. Probably." Niko's gappy smile was crooked like the broken down building.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Water may have gotten into the roof space and pooled there?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Exactly. Mind for broken glass. The nearest hospital was years ago."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Niko glanced at Misha's wound, which began to ache. He had injured himself the previous week in a derelict building. Lana held him down while Niko closed the gash with a pocket knife and baling twine. His forearm was gradually healing, the scar already twisting and curving like a meat hook.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Up in the roof space, they found several large puddles between the uneven precast concrete. Standing for weeks, the fallout had settled to the bottom and Niko showed them how to skim off the top layer, filling a dozen empty containers they had brought up. Misha double checked each container. The water seemed cool enough, at least compared to the background that gradually cooked them night and day.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Niko was nearly seventy, so Misha, at twenty six, was the pack animal. He began to ferry filled water containers back to the street. On his last trip, Niko scanned each landing for radiation, checking against the background to ensure they hadn't picked up radioactive dirt. On the ground floor, one broken down door seemed particularly hot. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Misha, stay here. I'm old and my cells can barely keep me alive, let alone make a new cancer. I'm going to check this out."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Misha waited as Niko's footsteps faded. After a minute, he heard a bang and a muffled splash. Misha dashed in after him. The darkened apartment had been thoroughly ransacked, its wooden floor scorched and broken away in places. In the middle of the main room, a prone form in a dull blue glow. Misha approached, cranking his mechanical flashlight. Its dull, yellow beam cut through a swirl of dust and lit the splayed figure. A skeleton, wrapped in tattered clothing, its skull at rest upon the ground. Small, a child.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Her skeleton hands cradled a melted rock, a skyfallen blast fragment hot enough to stop her freezing for the day or so it would have taken to burn her nerves. The starshard rested half submerged in a pool of water that glowed from the radiation. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Niko, where are you?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Silence. Misha skirted the ghostly wraith and stepped into the kitchen nook. Freshly splintered wood creaked underfoot. The Muller tube, wedged between planks, held the Geiger counter on its cord, suspended over a dark hole. Misha secured the instrument, hauled it back to his level, where it continued its demented clicking. Misha shone his flashlight over the edge of the hole. The flooded basement reflected diminishing ripples twelve feet below. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Nikolai!"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Silence. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The old man was gone.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">***</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana was alone. The geiger counter continued to screech. Her hand stung. Her child was still. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana lifted her head and looked around. Her restraints were frayed and rotting. She stretched her injured hand through the restraint and nursed her ancient pocket knife from her waistband. She grasped the blade between her fingers, eked it into position, and attempted to saw through the ropes. Her hand cramped and bled. She didn't dare utter a sound. The blade nicked her wrist as she painstakingly wore her way through the rope. The first strand parted and the rest unravelled.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">She rolled over to cut at the opposite wrist. Her hand spasmed in sudden pain and the knife dropped away for an eternity before clattering to the floor. She heard footsteps and lay prone. In her peripheral vision, she could see hooded shapes walking the stepped galleries above her. How long until they went away?</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">She waited for a hundred halting breaths after the last step faded, reached over, and started pulling at the knot. Soon her right arm was loose enough to wriggle free. She took ten more metallic, radioactive breaths, then sat up and began to work the knots loose at her feet. She heard footsteps again. Brothers were running down the stairs towards her. In desperation, she wrenched her feet free, slid off the platform, and stumbled to the ground. Her legs wobbled desperately until the adrenaline caught up, and as the hooded brothers started down the last set of stairs she limped into an arched portal beneath.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">In the darkness, Lana fled between the columns deep into the heart of the building. She grabbed a fistful of her jacket with her injured hand to try to staunch the bleeding long enough to break the trail of blood that betrayed her route of flight. Behind her, the Tsar screamed at a higher pitch than ever.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana ran around the next corner and into blind alley. A hooded figure lurked in the shadows. He stepped out, blocking her path, and quietly intoned. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Take the third right, the second left, another left, down the passage. You will be looking for salt?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Yes."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"At the end of the passage, continue downhill until the tunnel narrows. The second chamber has salt, the rest are booby trapped. Then follow the light. Go!"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">She ran. Behind her, she heard her savior shout: "The sacrifice was running towards the box seats."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Third right, second left, and she was cut off. A group of brothers stood near her exit. She crept into an alcove and listened to the hunt. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">She heard her savior once more, a high pitched shout then silence. There was a great commotion, and the group by the final door moved back towards the Tsar. Lana took her chance and stepped into the tunnel. She took a final glance over her shoulder and saw a man, bleeding from the mouth, strapped to the gurney. The roaring crowd triumphantly fed the traitor to their common deity. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Then she was underground. A series of tunnels hewn from the permafrost. The air was well below freezing and her eyes stung in the cold. The tunnel continued indefinitely into the gloom. She slowed to a fast walk and tried to catch her breath. Her hands shook.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The tunnel narrowed. She stopped, deep beneath the Earth. She could hear only her ragged breaths and pounding heart. Once again, she felt animal eyes boring into her.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Grib? How do you see so well in the dark?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Lana. Have you got the salt?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Not yet, second chamber?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Second chamber. Chaika is already there."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Let's load up and move."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">A few minutes later, Chaika, Grib, and Lana climbed narrow stairs to the light. Grib scouted and led them to a hiding place nearby.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Secure for now, Grib noticed Lana's wound. She held the injured hand in her own, turning it to reveal her own wound, healed in a ragged scar. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"I see you have also met the Father," Grib said. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"How did you escape?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"He was my father before he was everyone's Father."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">That evening, Grib, Lana, and Chaika stole out of the city, past the pit of strangers, and back to the empty road. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">As they reached the camp, Grib triggered one of Misha's whistle traps. They didn't see Misha until they heard him. Recognizing them, he beckoned them in.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">"Welcome back old friends and, I see, new. I had a quiet day. How about you?"</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;text-align:justify"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lana stared down narrowing tunnels at Misha's boyish face. She felt their baby kick as she collapsed to the ground. </span></p><br><br></span></div></div> Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-50651673047827981512018-10-12T05:34:00.001+11:002018-10-12T05:34:26.439+11:00What are the major causes of rocket launch failures?<div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><font color="#333333"><b>What are the major causes of rocket launch failures?</b></font><br></font></div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><font color="#333333">Casey Handmer</font></font></div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><font color="#333333">Originally answered on Quora, July 28 2014</font></font></div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><font color="#333333"><br></font></font></div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Let's look at the launch failures since 2000. And there have been a few! (Let me know if I missed any...)</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><b style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">European</b><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Two failures prior to 2000 of Ariane 5, one from guidance software, one from anomalous upper stage torque.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Ariane 5 flight 10: Partial failure due to upper stage anomalously low thrust.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Ariane 5 flight 14: Upper stage anomaly, self destruct.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><b style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Indian</b><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">GSLV has had five failures.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">D1, F02 and F04 due to guidance issues.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">D3 due to upper stage booster pump failure.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">F06 due to loss of control of liquid boosters (guidance or control issue).</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><b style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Japanese</b><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">H-IIA F6 due to stage separation failure.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><b style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Russian</b><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Russia launches a LOT of rockets. Some of their rockets are the most reliable in the world. Still, they have had some failures.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Proton-M has had 10 failures. </span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">1 due to overfueling of the upper stage (human error) in 2010. </span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2002, optional Blok-DM fourth stage shut down prematurely.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">5 due to problems with optional Briz-M fourth stage. </span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2006, Briz-M stage shut down prematurely due to oxygen supply line burning through during second firing.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2008, Briz-M stage shut down due to failure of gas duct between gas generator and turbine.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2011, Briz-M stage lost attitude control due to software error.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2012, Briz-M stage failed after 7 seconds.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2012, Briz-M stage failed 4 minutes early.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">3 due to Proton-M lower stage. </span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2007, a damaged cable prevented stage separation. </span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2013, yaw sensors were installed incorrectly, resulting in failure shortly after liftoff. </span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2014, third stage engine failure. </span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Soyuz 2 rocket has had 2 failures.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2009, due to under performing third stage leaving payload in lower orbit.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2011, due to failure of combustion chamber wall in third stage RD-0124 engine.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Rokot (a converted ICBM) has had 2 failures.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2005, due to a software error.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2011, due to upper stage malfunction.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Volna (a converted SLBM) has had 3 failures.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2001, due to payload separation failure.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2002, due to a payload/launcher interface issue.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2005, due to the failure of the first stage turbopump.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Soyuz U has had 21 failures out of an incredible 745 launches.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2002, due to engine failure on one of the boosters.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2011, due to an upper stage problem.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><b style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Chinese</b><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Not every Chinese launch failure is public knowledge. Two prominent fatal accidents of the Long March 3B in the mid 1990s were due to guidance problems shortly after launch.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Long March 2C (unknown)</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><b style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Ukraine</b><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Dnepr-1 (converted ICBM) in 2006, due to hydraulic failure on one of the first stage combustion chambers. </span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Zenit-3SL (launched in the US by Sea Launch). Originally developed as a booster.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2000, due to a software error.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2004, due to a wiring fault in the upper stage.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2007, due to debris in the first stage turbopump.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2013, due to premature engine shutdown and guidance faults.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><b style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">USA</b><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Atlas V in 2007, due to a fuel leak from a faulty valve.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Delta III in 2000, due to a guidance issue. Two previous Delta III launches in the late 1990s failed due to a software issue and an upper stage issue respectively.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Delta IV in 2004, due to premature engine cutoff. </span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><b style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Brazil</b><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">VLS-1 in 2003, due to exploding on the launch pad.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><b style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Israel</b><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Shavit 1 in 2004, due to unknown reasons.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><b style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Iran</b><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Safir 1 in 2008, due to unknown reasons.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Three further failures in 2012 and 2013, reasons unknown.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><b style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">North Korea</b><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Unha-2 in 2009, due to third stage malfunction.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Unha-3 in 2012 shortly after liftoff.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><b style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Private</b><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Falcon 1 in 2006, due to first stage engine failure - control electronics burned.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2007, due to second stage oscillation (guidance and control issue).</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">In 2008, due to software error in staging.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Rockets are very powerful machines with lots of parts and very little margin for error. In fact, if you assume some tiny probability for any given part to fail, then look at the overall probability of success, it is 0. All rocket parts need to be tested. Today, with computers, we are able to analyse some parts of the problem (like guidance software) in the loop very thoroughly. The hardware is correspondingly admittance tested to ensure that it will work.</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Nevertheless, the above list of launch failures has a few trends. Some common problems are:</span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"></font><ul style="margin:0px 2em 0px 0px;padding:0px;list-style-position:initial;color:rgb(51,51,51)"><li style="margin:0px 0px 0px 2em;padding:0px 0px 0.7em"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Inexperienced designers and builders, be that on new rockets, new companies or, in the case of several Russian launch failures, a lack of expertise caused by retirement and death of elderly program engineers.</font></li><li style="margin:0px 0px 0px 2em;padding:0px 0px 0.7em"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Third/upper/vacuum stage problems. The vacuum stage is difficult to test on Earth, often runs on cryogenic fuel, is the last thing to go wrong, and has to operate in a bizarre environment. Some organizations have jealously guarded expertise in this area, others obviously do not.</font></li><li style="margin:0px 0px 0px 2em;padding:0px 0px 0.7em"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Old systems or old parts.</font></li><li style="margin:0px 0px 0px 2em;padding:0px 0px 0.7em"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Software errors. The cheapest part to change is often changed wrongly, and has poorly understood failure modes.</font></li><li style="margin:0px 0px 0px 2em;padding:0px 0px 0.7em"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Guidance and sensor problems. This may seem obvious, but rockets need dynamic control to work. The systems are complicated and poorly understood.</font></li><li style="margin:0px 0px 0px 2em;padding:0px 0px 0.7em"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">A culture that doesn't prioritize getting it right. This is not as obvious from the above list, but many failures, particularly in the Japanese and Indian space programs, have been attributed to bad error handling. Invariably, someone knew something was wrong, but was unable or unwilling to fix it. Sometimes this is due to the junior engineer fearing or respecting the senior engineer, sometimes it is due to organizational issues. Either way, it's a dumb reason to crash a rocket.</font></li><li style="margin:0px 0px 0px 2em;padding:0px 0px 0.7em"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Probably sabotage has contributed to North Korea's and Iran's ongoing difficulties.</font></li><li style="margin:0px 0px 0px 2em;padding:0px"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Prior to the Long March 3B crash in 1996, China's launch success rate was around 80%. After that crash, which compromised and destroyed a classified Boeing payload, Boeing helped institute changes in project management which has subsequently greatly increased their success rate to about 98%.</font></li></ul></div></div> Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-22524400203429498162018-10-08T20:29:00.001+11:002018-10-09T03:40:29.412+11:00Searching for asteroids and other small dark solar system bodies with a network of ground-based stellar occultation cameras<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<u>Searching for asteroids and other small dark solar system bodies with a network of ground-based stellar occultation cameras</u></div>
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Casey Handmer October 2018</div>
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<u>Apologia</u></div>
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This is a blog written for a general audience. To the readers who (unlike me) actually know what they're talking about with respect to asteroids and astronomy, my deepest apologies. I hope that this is at least amusing, and I would be thrilled to learn of my mistakes. I do not have time or expertise to fully cite every idea or concept, but I have attempted to use phrases that, if googled, would point the reader in the right direction. Onwards!</div>
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<u>Summary</u></div>
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A network of hardware-agnostic all sky cameras positioned all over the world can achieve a <u>dense covering</u> of the entire sky, with respect to stellar occultations of near-visible stars down to magnitude 7, out to the orbit of Jupiter at 5.2 AU. Such a system, decentrally implemented and operated, could rapidly survey the <u>entire population</u> of inner solar system asteroids larger than tens of meters, in just a few years. Gathered data will also reveal information about asteroid size and shape, irrespective of the body's albedo. Extensions of the fundamental concept using hardware readily available in 2018 could track solar system bodies of similar size well out into the Kuiper Belt, albeit at substantially increased cost.</div>
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<u>What do we want?</u></div>
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Asteroids, millions small rocky bodies that exist primarily between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter, are still relatively unexplored and undiscovered. Of the estimated two million or so larger than 1km, only about 100,000 are known, skewing strongly towards the larger and closer specimens. </div>
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<u>Why do we want it?</u></div>
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In addition to their intrinsic scientific value and interest, asteroids routinely impact the Earth, with consequences ranging from a bright fireball (particle size <1cm) to major damage to a city (<10m, such as Chelyabinsk in 2013) to total destruction (<100m, such as Tunguska in 1908) and even planetary scale extinction events (Dinosaurs!!!).</div>
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This diagram shows what fraction of near Earth asteroids are currently known. Each image represents 100 objects, and any of them would be a really really bad day if they hit Earth.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-VPH0oSWlwDFDYypNuolHV8Cn8HAVi_sPp5DeQ9pqLAD5f0qJznUw3Xw2jv_3tC_ZTgzkKa4Y53a676oy61fx6ob75C4mYKxl0hrbrLask6Ordi3YVaetXkx7ZkvC5NuXkPgoZvh64fM/s1600/image-791611.png"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6609915979508859170" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-VPH0oSWlwDFDYypNuolHV8Cn8HAVi_sPp5DeQ9pqLAD5f0qJznUw3Xw2jv_3tC_ZTgzkKa4Y53a676oy61fx6ob75C4mYKxl0hrbrLask6Ordi3YVaetXkx7ZkvC5NuXkPgoZvh64fM/s320/image-791611.png" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/WISE/multimedia/gallery/neowise/pia14734.html">https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/WISE/multimedia/gallery/neowise/pia14734.html</a> </div>
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<u>Why is it hard?</u></div>
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While 916 of an estimated 981 near-Earth asteroids larger than 1km are known, vast numbers of smaller asteroids remain undiscovered. Smaller asteroids are hard to discover with telescopes using light reflected from the sun, and not just because they're tiny. They're also often surfaced with material as dark as charcoal, making them extremely difficult to see with reflected light. </div>
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<u>How will we do it?</u></div>
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Stellar occultations have been used to study asteroids for more than 50 years. A stellar occultation occurs when an asteroid or planet passes between the observer and a distant star, momentarily blocking its light. Because asteroids are quite small relative to the Earth, a stellar occultation makes a "track" across the Earth's surface, such as the one shown below.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibYZdtuKNa6NBBZMARrqecYZO0ydjkCGKJaLjQqDB2JsM4_zMu7ViNQvo9plJGEaKqFL5iA5YT_ifWH-Yt491hM4motLk1jGbgBcJk7HTJpCdK8c8vDTGhE9MHcgJ3sSwkDu9kGdXRkNc/s1600/image-795056.png"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6609915994717843458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibYZdtuKNa6NBBZMARrqecYZO0ydjkCGKJaLjQqDB2JsM4_zMu7ViNQvo9plJGEaKqFL5iA5YT_ifWH-Yt491hM4motLk1jGbgBcJk7HTJpCdK8c8vDTGhE9MHcgJ3sSwkDu9kGdXRkNc/s320/image-795056.png" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/2018_10/1003_6_56712_Map.gif">http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/2018_10/1003_6_56712_Map.gif</a></div>
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<a href="http://asteroidoccultation.com/">asteroidoccultation.com</a> lists predicted occultations of known asteroids passing the Earth so that a network of astronomers can point their telescopes at the correct star and, these days, take a video of the star momentarily winking out. When all the videos are combined with their GPS locations and times, the exact shape of the shadow, and hence the asteroid, can be derived. </div>
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With a powerful enough telescope, hundreds of thousands of stars are visible. The Earth itself is about 12000km wide, and subtends a virtual beam into space in the direction of every star. If a body passes through any of these beams, a sufficiently sensitive photometer will detect the changing brightness of the corresponding star. As the Earth moves through its orbit, this pompom of beams will scrape out a volume within the solar system. If there are enough beams, essentially the entire volume of the inner solar system will be covered in the course of one year.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizVeE15IE6J-4XgeA2c3RkiNMkNaYPTI-UTrOjfs8dRVu8LZxDVN1eHX7vPTMEuF77Intzc3Q08igOKj-avaYhT8eC8RGxWSLu34QOK3ryJhF7JZxPI8Qdh5bd2096eUEb__XCzPGprJE/s1600/image-797400.png"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6609916001639053842" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizVeE15IE6J-4XgeA2c3RkiNMkNaYPTI-UTrOjfs8dRVu8LZxDVN1eHX7vPTMEuF77Intzc3Q08igOKj-avaYhT8eC8RGxWSLu34QOK3ryJhF7JZxPI8Qdh5bd2096eUEb__XCzPGprJE/s320/image-797400.png" /></a></div>
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This diagram shows the Earth's orbit projected on a sphere of radius 3AU. Each star traces out an ovoid, depending on its declination. Combining the ovoids of thousands of stars covers the entire sky with a forest of beams, through which the odds of an asteroid passing without being seen goes to zero. In this diagram, each line is much wider (by roughly 10 times) than the actual beam subtended by the Earth, and the colors are a happy accident. </div>
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In order to estimate the density of coverage, I randomly generated points in the sky then measured how close they were to the nearest beam, for stars brighter than a certain level. If they passed within an Earth radius, then they would generate a stellar occultation. I considered that good enough for detection.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX2euYiGhv1rdnx9bZm9YVggVI89qbXQdRZKLl0ymyRMaEeNSFA3RweziVE1LupXSSgg3TfgXLK4_Lkw_oFPhH1B8hv_gsu7IJJ_TSloJxl-XbIIEqH73dy_TemVQwGYVDO-tJw6hnMHE/s1600/image-799750.png"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6609916012318943202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX2euYiGhv1rdnx9bZm9YVggVI89qbXQdRZKLl0ymyRMaEeNSFA3RweziVE1LupXSSgg3TfgXLK4_Lkw_oFPhH1B8hv_gsu7IJJ_TSloJxl-XbIIEqH73dy_TemVQwGYVDO-tJw6hnMHE/s320/image-799750.png" /></a></div>
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These histograms show the numbers of samples that approach an Earth beam. While the brightest stars do not effectively cover the night sky, my rudimentary calculations show that 82% of the entire sky is covered in one year by just the brightest 5000 stars out to a distance of 3AU, which is roughly the middle of the asteroid belt. Including magnitude 7, which are just dimmer than visible, most points would be detected multiple times per year. It is captivating to think that if humans were able to keep records and time extremely accurately, they could have used this method in ancient times with only their eyes!</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1R8DMS0j0yAjxYhbJnNAFxhDsn0MJp4C3nGxcyl0jEovuPJMVUWA6n0a7dgO9zRftwVRJcWtrVYu-lHKnSvZ1O_KwGOU1WeGhqYvOx-zJK9AY_khK31jlyZleLqq4zA7KETaFBss30ho/s1600/image-701493.png"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6609916021661936994" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1R8DMS0j0yAjxYhbJnNAFxhDsn0MJp4C3nGxcyl0jEovuPJMVUWA6n0a7dgO9zRftwVRJcWtrVYu-lHKnSvZ1O_KwGOU1WeGhqYvOx-zJK9AY_khK31jlyZleLqq4zA7KETaFBss30ho/s320/image-701493.png" /></a></div>
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This graph summarizes the above histogram, showing that tracking of 5000 stars (M6) is adequate to cover 82% of sky in a year, while tracking of 15000 stars (M7) covers 70% of the sky in only 13 weeks.</div>
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<u>Why is this better than the previous approach?</u></div>
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The traditional survey method has significant advantages. A single telescope, operating in an automated fashion, can survey the entire (night) sky in a night or two. Comparing multiple subsequent days enables rapid discovery of moving objects, and completely automated pipelines such as NEO-WISE (<a href="https://neowise.ipac.caltech.edu/">https://neowise.ipac.caltech.edu/</a>) have resulted in the discovery of many thousands of asteroids. </div>
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In contrast, an automated stellar occultation asteroid discovery system requires a coordinated network of thousands or millions of all sky video cameras, sophisticated statistics and software, patience, and must contend with the existing, non-ideal distribution of stars.</div>
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Stellar occultation has one principle advantage. Because stars are so bright and so far away, they are effectively point sources. Asteroids much too small and dark to be seen using traditional telescopes can still block light from distant stars, enabling their detection. In this way, stellar occultation thumbs its nose at the inverse square law, though without violating any laws of physics. </div>
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When I began thinking about this problem last week, it occurred to me that this was, in some sense, the astronomy analogue of the STED/STORM family of super-resolution microscopy techniques, in that it exploits the statistically regular point spread function of a point source. Super-resolution microscopes are also real headaches to implement, but worthwhile for particular use cases. In this case, because there are millions of undiscovered and otherwise undiscoverable asteroids, it might be worth the trouble to attempt detection using stellar occultation.</div>
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<u>What are its limitations?</u></div>
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As previously hinted, like any other experiment there are numerous technical challenges to overcome. This is a non-exhaustive list!</div>
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- Diffraction. For sufficiently distant stars and small asteroids, the occultation produces a diffraction pattern on the surface of the Earth rather than a discrete, hard-edged shadow. Given better than binary photometry, occultation diffraction patterns can be measured using the proposed network. </div>
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- Seeing/scintillation. The Earth's atmosphere tends to wobble and in doing so produces 'twinkle' that naturally varies the brightness and apparent location of stars in the sky. This introduces a noise source that drowns out the occultation signal from particularly small asteroids. Collocating sensors within 10m, necessary to detect asteroids of similar scale, would suffer correlated scintillation noise. Combining data from a more broadly separated set of sensors could still detect the smallest asteroids, provided there were enough of them.</div>
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- Light pollution/sky glow. In many parts of the world, light pollution affects the visibility of the dimmer stars, particularly over the timescales (milliseconds to seconds) necessary for stellar occultations. Additionally, the sky is too bright to see almost all stars during the day, so the network would only be useful for searches during the night. In practice, apparent magnitude 7 and brighter stars still densely cover a 3AU sphere even without a space-based detector system, which can point much closer to the sun.</div>
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- Other sky objects. Planes, birds, clouds, meteors, insects, and satellites can all occult stars or introduce noise. Fortunately, occulations occur on a planetary scale, so more local noise sources can be readily filtered out. Indeed, a widely distributed network of all sky cameras would also be useful for tracking meteors and discovering the remnants of long-period comets, which also pose an existential threat to humanity.</div>
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- Sensor density. The mean free path of any given occultation track between sensors on the Earth determines how effective the proposed network is at detecting every occultation, and particularly the occultations by small objects that have narrow tracks. My analysis assumes that millions of sensors based on mobile phone hardware are positioned over the entire dark-sky land area of the Earth. Note that the network would still have substantial scientific value at smaller scale, but comprehensive exploitation of the opportunity requires an extensive network on Earth.</div>
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- Stellar radius. All the stars in the sky that are visible to the naked eye are either very bright, very close, or both. For particularly wide stars in the night sky, a small, close asteroid won't completely eclipse it. Instead of going completely dark for a fraction of a second, the star will only dim slightly. Star catalogs include star angular diameter, so excluding problematic stars for smaller objects is trivial. </div>
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- Statistical inference. The proposed network will require a multifaceted data pipeline to first discover and measure an occultation, reconstruct an occultation track, generate candidate object sizes and orbits, and then produce predictions of future occultations that can be used to refine orbits. Yes, a dense covering of the sky guarantees repeated occultation observations of every body over a period of years, allowing orbital elements to be calculated. Nonetheless, processing all the data efficiently is a worthy problem.</div>
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- Pixel edges. As an example of hardware specific issues that complicate mere photometry, an all sky camera will not track individual stars. This means that stars will move through the visual field, crossing pixel boundaries and, in some cases, even sharing pixels with other stars. The detector software will need to include a star tracker so it knows what it's looking at and doesn't confuse sensor noise and pixel boundaries with an actual occultation. Detector orientation is otherwise hard to measure.</div>
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- Hardware heterogeneity. As much as I would love to spend someone else's money on a million ARGUS-IS gigapixel cameras (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARGUS-IS">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARGUS-IS</a>) and slap on a 3m fish eye lens, the proposed system will have to contend with hardware heterogeneity. This means that none of the cameras will be perfect, they will all be different, and the software they run will have to have sophisticated hardware models to compensate for these differences. One compelling option is to use retired smart phones with fish eye lens attachments and solar panels for power, and send reduced data back to base with the cellular network. </div>
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- Deep sky limitations. Finally, the inverse square law does come back to bite when considering outer solar system uses of such a network. Stellar occultations for Kuiper belt object discovery and atmosphere measurement is an area of active research (e.g. <a href="https://www.lpi.usra.edu/books/ssbn2008/7022.pdf">https://www.lpi.usra.edu/books/ssbn2008/7022.pdf</a>), but even the system I'm envisioning wouldn't be capable of producing a *dense* dragnet of the sky that far from the sun. There are two main reasons for this. The first is that the projection of Earth's orbit (parallax) gets smaller and smaller, reducing the length of the locus by a factor 1/r. The second is that the projection of the Earth's disk also covers less of the sky, shrinking the area of coverage by 1/r^2. This still scales better than direct discovery, which scales as 1/r^4! But surveying the sky at 60AU would require 20^3 = 8000 times as many stars as at 3AU, necessitating using all the stars up to magnitude 16, which is comparable to the brightness of the nearer Kuiper belt objects themselves! All things being equal, an aperture 100 times greater would be required to gather photometric data of stars this faint, while the sheer number of objects would complicate automated tracking. Furthermore, stars at this magnitude are predominantly located in the galactic plane and are not comprehensively surveyed. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's a different sort of problem.</div>
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<u>A vision for practical implementation</u></div>
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As of today, my best vision for deploying this instrument is the development of an app that runs on smartphones. Each phone would use its camera, an aftermarket fixed focus fisheye lens, GPS, Bluetooth, and a cellular connection, and power source such as a solar panel or very long USB cable.</div>
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Each phone's software incorporates a star tracker that monitors the brightness of each star while it sits within a pixel, checking for a dimming that is statistically at variance from background sensor noise. </div>
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A candidate detection is tagged with location and the specific star, then compared within a local decentralized cluster of 2-15 phones within a ~100m area. Given a concurrence, the event is uploaded using a cellular or satellite network in compact text form, containing the following information: GPS location, start and end time, degree of extinction, an event reference number, phone configuration, orientation, and ID numbers, (most likely) star, and event's declination and right ascension. Local weather data (e.g. percent of the sky visible) is also included. </div>
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The cellular connection is also used to receive information about predicted tracks. If the event is thought to involve a diffraction pattern, ring system, or atmosphere, then more detailed photometric data can be taken and uploaded for analysis.</div>
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On a remote server, incoming events are binned by sky location. Any event that does not have corroborating occultations of the same star are thrown out. Multiple events are reconstructed into tracks, depending on where they were observed, and a further statistical test ensures that a majority of the local clusters along the track all detected the event. For diffraction patterns, all relevant data can be processed together to pull the signal from the noise.</div>
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With sensors capable of tracking magnitude 7 and brighter stars, essentially all of the estimated two million asteroids larger than 1km (and billions of smaller ones) will be detected every year. Earth over(under)takes the slower moving main belt asteroids frequently enough that nearly every asteroid will be detected multiple times over a few year period. The final task of the central server is to process occultation event detections to deconflict coincidences. That is, if two million asteroids are detected twice, there are four thousand billion possible double detections. The vast majority of these can be excluded on physical grounds, but of the remaining, say one billion candidate orbits, each will generate at least one predicted occultation per year. This may seem like a lot, but each camera is tracking about 7000 stars at once, for 31 million seconds a year - a total of 210 billion star-seconds! With a decent sized dataset, most of the remaining candidate orbits can be excluded and asteroids definitively discovered. Finally, combining information from multiple occultations, the asteroids' shapes can be deduced.</div>
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<u>Final Thoughts</u></div>
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Earth has a surface area of 510.1 million km^2. As of 2018, the are of the single largest telescope is 84m^2. The total area of all the optical telescopes is less than 0.002km^2. The total area of all human pupils is about 0.7km^2. All the rest of the star light that falls on the Earth is wasted! While radio astronomers have long used telescopes across the world for very large baseline observation, the use of such a huge canvas for visible observation is limited by the severe physical difficulty of recording a visible light signal at about a million billion Hertz. With stellar occultation, this limitation can be removed. Using the entire Earth and millions of artificial eyes to stare at the night sky is the only practical way to discover and catalog every asteroid that orbits between Earth and Jupiter, including every main belt asteroid, down to a size of tens of meters. </div>
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Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-76030354065745943472018-10-07T08:23:00.000+11:002018-10-07T08:24:00.934+11:00How to rig an election, or yet another think piece on gerrymandering<div dir="ltr"><div dir="auto"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">How to rig an election, or yet another think piece on gerrymandering</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Casey Handmer, 4 January 2018 (revised and published October 2018)</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">This technical note lays out a recipe for gerrymandering any given set of congressional districts.</span></p><div dir="auto"><br></div>Context:<br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><a href="https://www.wired.com/story/pennsylvania-partisan-gerrymandering-experts/" style="text-decoration-line:none" target="_blank"><span style="font-family:arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://www.wired.com/story/pennsylvania-partisan-gerrymandering-experts/</span></a><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Why is gerrymandering bad?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Gerrymandering is bad for two related reasons:</span></p><ul style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">It subverts the will of the people, by skewing the x-intercept of the swing/representation graph, as shown below.</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">It radicalizes representatives, whose representation tends over time towards more homogeneous, less diverse congressional districts. </span></p></li></ul><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">These two reasons drive partisan polarization for many, though not all, issues, and contribute to inefficiencies in the governing process.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">There is a perception that a gerrymandered district is obvious, but a formal definition is surprisingly non obvious. Some ridiculous shape might help with the "know it when you see it" definition, but formally convex districts can also be gerrymandered. For the purposes of this discussion, I will consider a set of districts gerrymandered if their boundaries are statistically robustly shifting the x intercept of the swing/representation graph.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/A6ecBrDh1zNIi3iwaJDH3fPXz01o7J02Gj2cNIEUR5nLcPccsErX4y8leBwIcA3VHMKDi6m-Gh6k2kVtRqzj_0S3krXG2fxVokGVvnizTOQ0i-1s2lDte4ysR4EsLi5eWeFjjBIA" width="541" height="389" style="border: none; margin-right: 0px;"></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">This graph shows a roughly even split of gerrymandering that ensures house safety even with a 5% swing. </span><a href="https://urbanmilwaukee.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/image00-3.png" style="text-decoration-line:none" target="_blank"><span style="font-family:arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://urbanmilwaukee.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/image00-3.png</span></a><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">There are many proposals for algorithms or mechanisms that can select less gerrymandered districts. My favorite proposal (today) is the "I cut, you choose" procedure, where each major party takes turns to draw one district of the appropriate size within the remaining area. This can tend to minimize the negative partisan effect of existing gerrymandering, but I will show that it doesn't actually solve the problem. It merely shifts it somewhere else. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Finally, there are a few other structural weaknesses of the US voting system, including the electoral college and non-preferential voting, but let's focus on one thing at once.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">A note on divisive political issues</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Elections in the US, where voting is non-compulsory, often swing on whether or not so-called "single issue voters" bother to show up. As a result, there is a disproportionate focus in partisan media and political commentary on a reasonably small set of these polarizing issues. Let's call them highly motivating divisive issues, or HMDIs. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">There are many divisive issues out there, but only some are sufficiently motivating to be "big hills to die on." A good test case for whether an issue is an HMDI is whether it's the sort of thing that ruins Thanksgiving. It'll split a room and people just won't shut up about it, happily burning their family in the process.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The peculiar thing about HMDIs is that so many of them are fundamentally niche issues for the vast majority of US voters. I'm not saying they're not important or bellwether issues, but they just don't have a huge impact on the personal lives of most voters. For example:</span></p><ul style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><li style="list-style-type:disc;font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Background checks for gun owners, almost all of whom would pass.</span></p></li><li style="list-style-type:disc;font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Abortion, despite the fact that most people will never have one.</span></p></li><li style="list-style-type:disc;font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Immigration, despite the fact that only a tiny number of people immigrate to the US.</span></p></li><li style="list-style-type:disc;font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Gay marriage, despite the fact that no-one's proposing to force anyone to marry a gay person.</span></p></li><li style="list-style-type:disc;font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Drug decriminalization, despite drug use being a personal choice.</span></p></li></ul><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">My hypothesis is that the modern Democrat and Republican parties accidentally found themselves on either side of these issues which not only split the electorate roughly evenly, and along ideologically simple lines, but also conveyed a slight, unintentional x-intercept bias. Then the redistricting machine did its usual amplification procedure and here we are. In fact, we've even seen historical examples of both parties being on the other side of former HMDIs such as slavery, social security, or federalism. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Let's get technical</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">We know that our current congressional districts are drawn to classify voters with known preferences into different groups to "pack and crack," or try to dilute the influence of opponents while amplifying the influence of allies. Therefore, it's fair to say that the current US electoral district boundaries are, in some sense, a representation of the natural distribution of an inhomogeneous electorate and its preferences. Remember that humans self-sort and self-segregate in statistically significant ways, but that any given divisive issue doesn't predict another particularly well. I would estimate that the total space of >500 issues can be covered reasonably well by the first 15 principal components in terms of geographic voter allocation. </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><br></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">I hypothesize that, were another HMDI to become politically important in the next decade, and its preference prevalence to differ from the background of existing liberal/conservative splits, even a bit, that congressional districts would be redrawn to maintain their maximally gerrymandered state. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Therefore, it's fair to say that it's possible to construct a perturbative map from an existing electorate to a future one, where the set of voters and their most important issues changes, but there is a smoothly continuous variation of district boundaries that maintains a maximum of partisan advantage. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The big idea</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">This perturbative map rests on a hidden assumption that it's possible to analyse the stated and latent preferences of any demographic and to (re)draw a maximally gerrymandered district accordingly. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Given a weighted ranked set of HMDIs, then, it is possible to score any given (set of) potential congressional boundaries for partisan advantage, and select one accordingly. Given that it's difficult to be precise about which HMDIs matter and how much, this is not a particularly sound method for preventing gerrymandering, though it is a good (and proven) approach for maximizing gerrymandering. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The inverse map is more interesting. For any given set of congressional boundaries, the inverse map can generate a weighted ranked set of HMDIs. If, for example, congressional boundaries were redrawn at random after every election, political consultants would perform the inverse map to determine which issues were most likely to swing the election in any given district, then try to push a local agenda that raised the profile of these issues. It is important to note that while some of the issues are likely to be important to voters on both sides of the issue, other issues are likely to convey partisan advantage for only one party. For a historical precedent, see the staggering rise of anti-Muslim animus since 2001, becoming a supreme court issue (the Muslim ban) in only 15 years. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">There is a further implication. Given a map gerrymandered to favor (say) Republicans, there will be a set of issues which divide that region to give, with the exact same boundaries, a gerrymandered advantage to Democrats. In reality, these issues are likely to be mostly relatively unimportant. But that doesn't mean it's not worth looking. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">In other words, for any given map, electorate preoccupation with some issue will render partisan advantage. "This map is gerrymandered on abortion."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Conversely, for any given issue, there is a unique map which maximizes partisan advantage for this issue. "We gerrymandered this map on abortion."</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Why is this interesting?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Do you find endless debates about abortion boring, but want to see some federal political attention given to, say, climate change, space exploration, or world peace?</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Why is our political process obsessed with such insipid HMDIs? Who is driving this train? </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">I think it's fair to say that beyond a certain point, HMDIs function as memes that self-select given the existing set of congressional districting rules. This is a natural instability in the system and probably can't be avoided. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">This is interesting because when maps are redrawn they can alter the relative importance of second-billing issues. We've already seen this - I don't think Newt Gingrich intended his strategy for political conservatism to see a resurgence of Nazism. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">But a more involved quantitative understanding of this process, particularly if its precise workings can be concealed, leaves open the potential for major political meddling. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:arial;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Let's redraw some districts around people who care about climate change and peaceful uses of rockets.</span></p><br><br><br></div> </div> Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-72157752595415274452018-10-01T17:12:00.000+10:002018-10-10T17:58:45.809+11:00"The Program," or, a strategy for universal prosperity in the twenty first century<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Energy! What is it, how do you get it? </div>
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Energy has an esoteric physics definition, but for the purposes of this blog, energy is the ability to do useful work. Work energy per unit time is power, while force multiplied by distance is work.</div>
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Throughout human history, if a human wanted something done, they had to use muscle power. Muscles, powered by food grown using sunlight, water, and ambient carbon dioxide, was the limiting factor in the deployment of work for useful things. There were a handful of exceptions in the form of water or windmills, of course. </div>
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That all changed in the 18th century when engineers in Britain devised the first practical steam engines. For the first time, mechanical power could be harnessed to operate pumps, mills, and vehicles, that wasn't derived from mammalian metabolism. </div>
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This first industrial revolution was followed by the widespread development of factories and assembly lines in the 19th century. </div>
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At around this time the gasoline internal combustion engine was developed, such that by the 1930s rubber wheels on bitumen were overtaking trains as a preferred land surface transportation mechanism.</div>
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The Second World War saw the rapid maturation of aviation and oil extraction technology, and from 1948 until 1973, world per capita energy consumption grew at 7% per year. Physicist Gerard O'Neill predicted that by the year 2000, humanity would need space solar power to continue its incredible growth. </div>
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What does this story mean? Gasoline is a fuel, or a mechanism for the storage and convenient dispatch of mechanical energy. In this, it is hard to beat, as it is pourable, readily available, and incredibly energy dense. While highly flammable, it can be made safe to use. </div>
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7% annual energy growth encapsulates billions of humans being lifted from the poverty of preindustrial subsistence agriculture. With gasoline powered machines, an individual human can be so much more productive, enabling great increases in quality of life. </div>
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Of course, this trend has not continued to the present. Instead, we had a series of oil shocks and a plateauing of wealth in developed countries. Indeed, recent trends seem to point toward a zero-sum struggle for control of limited resources, rather than confidence in limitless growth, at least to the point of post-scarcity. Indeed, energy has only gotten more expensive. </div>
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The figure below shows 5-year smoothed data for US per capita energy consumption and the price of crude oil. The period from 1939 until 1973 was marked by robust growth and steady, slightly declining oil prices. The period from 1973 until present has endured great uncertainty and change in the price of oil (up to 20% per year for several years!), and a commensurate loss of steady growth in the exploitation of energy. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUhaWm52zBQMVkbiIWsXafbaNRgKha5E_-MxD6MMasZptrX3-wWz8no19XPsehtfhVTd1v_BN-Z7RTDKeRkrec8GBFnstVhHDBJTFBLSvnEHeFDYMMajVJM05FVrwrgur0QG3738Pl9js/s1600/Screenshot+from+2018-10-09+23%253A53%253A02.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="431" data-original-width="608" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUhaWm52zBQMVkbiIWsXafbaNRgKha5E_-MxD6MMasZptrX3-wWz8no19XPsehtfhVTd1v_BN-Z7RTDKeRkrec8GBFnstVhHDBJTFBLSvnEHeFDYMMajVJM05FVrwrgur0QG3738Pl9js/s400/Screenshot+from+2018-10-09+23%253A53%253A02.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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I believe that worldwide economic stagnation in the 1980s and 1990s was headed off only by the coincidental development of consumer-accessible computers.</div>
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Computers are a very unusual case, as they have gotten twice as good every 18 months for many decades, at least until recently. To provide an example of how unusual this is, the Curiosity Mars rover uses a particular kind of space-grade chip, which is necessarily of rather poor performance compared to the state of the art. The Mars Helicopter doesn't have enough power to run this chip, so the engineers had to select an option that was smaller and less power hungry. In any other field, this would imply even poorer performance, but because this is a computer, the smaller chip is 60 times as powerful, which is a great boon to the software developers! </div>
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Moore's Law has tapered off in recent years due to fundamental physics, but I think that we're a long way from fully exploiting the potential of current computer hardware. </div>
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While our civilisation has failed to obtain an infinite supply of ever cheaper energy, the growth of wildly cheap computing capacity has allowed us to subvert that constraint to some extent. Although computers don't perform mechanical work in any macro sense, their prodigious abilities with logic and calculation have extended the cognitive capacity of humanity in the same way that engines have extended our muscles. </div>
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Of course, this has further exacerbated a chronic oversupply of human labor present since the end of WWII, since all human needs could now be met in developed countries with a ten hour work week. Today, we are seeing the computerized automation of middle management, such that employees of organizations like Uber are actually dispatched by an algorithm. And when one considers the affordability of real estate it's clear that in this period of macroscale industrial stagnation much value has been stealthily inflated away. </div>
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After this necessarily imprecise historical and economic review, it's time for me to pull out my crystal ball and talk about The Program.</div>
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I was discussing an application of cheap solar energy with my cousin J when my reference to The Program elicited a blank stare. This blog is my attempt to structure on paper my thoughts about energy policy over the next 30 years.</div>
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When we think of 2050, we think of supersonic passenger jets, flying cars, good food, free education, housing, healthcare, and other trappings of a wealthy, prosperous society. Yet even in 2018, nothing can happen without oil. Oil is a dirty, messy business that destroys the environment, corrupts governments, ruins our health, and poisons the atmosphere. But for all that, we can't live without it because, as explained earlier, it can give any human on Earth the superhero capacity to dispatch, as a rough average, 100 times more work than their muscles could achieve on their own. </div>
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Given that oil is not only poisonous, it's also finite, a replacement will have to be found and deployed, and in our lifetime. </div>
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While it's possible to chemically synthesize fuels at huge expense, I'm going to focus this blog on the technology that will prevail, namely electricity. </div>
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Electricity and magnetism are magic. Like gasoline, electricity is a form of energy that can flow down conductive wires and, with motors, perform mechanical work. Its technological maturation has progressed alongside fuels and is so successful that everyone can get it from outlets in their walls.</div>
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Whereas a 19th century factory may have transmitted energy from a central steam engine using belts or shafts, these days nearly everything is run using electric motors. My robot vacuum has 12 motors in it! </div>
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But while electricity has been the go to for appliances for decades, and not just because no-one wants to run a dishwasher with a motorcycle engine, gasoline has been the traditional energy source in mobile applications. </div>
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This reminds me of the old joke about electric helicopters, which is that they needed a very long extension cord! In all seriousness, boats, cars, planes, and rockets needed fuels they could carry with them, so electricity was not an option. Recall why gasoline is such a compelling fuel! Cheap, pourable, energy dense, safe enough. </div>
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When my father built the house in which I grew up in 1986, he used power tools powered by the mains, and drove a petrol powered car. When I attempt to construct things, I use battery powered tools and drive an electric, battery-powered car. No-one has a gas-powered mobile phone. World battery production is growing as batteries power ever-larger vehicles. The Tesla Gigafactory will reach 35GWh production later this year, two years ahead of schedule. There are serious proposals to build battery ships to transport electricity from solar farms in North Africa to Northern Europe!</div>
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In 1973, battery technology was not very advanced. In 2018, there are battery-powered planes that have crossed the English Channel. In short, the geological and geopolitical shortage of oil that halted the mechanical progress of humans is finally ready to be circumvented. </div>
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Lithium batteries, like all products, require the mining of certain materials which have environmental effects. Needless to say, for equivalent work, lithium batteries are much less harmful than oil! They're also highly recyclable. </div>
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To get technical for a moment, the energy density of gasoline is about 46MJ/kg. The energy density of the best batteries is about 1MJ/kg, which improves by about 5% per year. The saving grace is that electric motors can be 95% efficient, while a car engine would be lucky to reach 15% efficiency, with the rest being wasted as heat. That means that on a per kg basis, batteries+motors are only 7 times less mass efficient than gasoline+engines. Further, electric motors have much higher power density, so can be lighter. Finally, vehicles such as cars spend most of their mass budget on things other than fuel and power train, so extra batteries can be added with only marginal increases in weight. This is notably not the case with long haul jets (50% fuel mass fraction) or rockets (95% fuel mass fraction) which both consume an inordinate amount of fuel.</div>
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To consider my personal carbon footprint, I use low wattage LED bulbs, but every time I fly to Australia my share of the plane's fuel is about 500kg, or 180 gallons. Each way. Driving a Hummer wouldn't make much difference! </div>
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A frequent though inaccurate criticism of electric cars is that the electricity they use, generated by coal, just moves the pollution elsewhere. This is imprecise, as electric cars are about 5 times as efficient at using energy due to regenerative braking and better motor efficiency, while electricity power plants are about twice as efficient as car engines, primarily because they operate at steady state and have better heat disposal mechanisms available. </div>
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Incidentally, while batteries are not yet good enough to operate long haul flights, there are now hundreds of companies developing short range electric commuter planes. Further, the power density and mechanical simplicity of electric motors allows for vertical take and landing, like a helicopter. Finally, I think that electric power has unique advantages which point the way to cost effective consumer supersonic flight, which is definitely part of my awesome vision for the future. </div>
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Nevertheless, The Program does not stop once it has succeeded in supplanting gasoline as the fuel of choice for all vehicles except orbital rockets. Indeed, as far as global warming goes, humanity could burn all the oil and all the gas and do relatively little harm compared to reserves of coal. Coal, a black, carbon rich fossil of trees, stores concentrated ancient sunlight and is extremely popular as a source of electricity. </div>
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While wind power has matured in recent years, the most applicable renewable natural resource is solar power. The sun is about 110 times wider than the Earth and will burn for another five billion years. During the day, every square meter of the Earth's surface receives about a kilowatt of power. It just rains down from space for free. It powers trees, so anywhere there's green, there's solar power.</div>
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But recall that preindustrial societies are solar powered! Horses and cows eat solar powered grass and humans eat wheat, corn, cows, and so on. No-one is deriving nutritional value from coal. How can solar power produce enough energy for our civilization? </div>
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The answer rests in efficiency. A modern commercial solar panel is about 20% efficient. Combined with a 80% efficient power transmission system, a 90% efficient battery charger and a 75% efficient cordless drill, about 10% of that kW of solar power, or 100W, makes it to the work piece. </div>
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Contrast this with agriculture, which also requires arable land, fertilizer, pesticide, and irrigation. Plants spend most of their energy transpiring water to keep cool in the sun, and are less than 0.1% efficient at converting solar energy into digestible starch. Cows or yeasts are about the same. Then the human metabolism is about 5% efficient at converting consumed energy to mechanical work. </div>
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So while a solar powered electric system is 10% efficient, an agricultural system is <a href="tel:0000005">0.000005</a>% efficient. This is the main reason that farms are really big. To create value, they have to capture a lot of sunlight, which is rather dispersed. This is also the reason why biofuels can never scale to completely replace gasoline. Their end-to-end efficiency is thousands of times lower than solar and batteries, and there isn't enough arable land to produce enough ethanol. Not even close. </div>
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To dwell on power transmission for a moment, let's consider trees. Trees are self-powered, but they're not generally considered to be capable of locomotion. Animals that move need to eat a lot of plants to concentrate the stored solar energy. This is why very few animals bother with photosynthesis. Likewise, some electrical applications require so little energy that they can be powered directly by solar panels. But most human machines are too energy intensive to be powered in this way. </div>
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For instance, at highway speeds my car consumes about 15kW. If this were provided by a solar panel, in addition to being unable to drive at night, the car would need to be 50m long to fit in a standard lane. In the US this may be permitted on certain roads at certain times with escort vehicles; the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket first stage is of a similar size. </div>
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Clearly, solar panels on houses or in dedicated farms are needed to concentrate the sun's power. A transmission grid continues to dispatch the supply to the end user. </div>
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How many solar panels are needed? Lots and lots! For a rough estimate, recall that solar is about 2000 times as efficient as non-meat food production, but that per capita energy consumption is only 1% food in industrial societies. Therefore, about 5% of the area devoted to agriculture is necessary to meet foreseeable electricity needs. About 11% of Earth's land surface is used for crops, so we're talking about 0.5%. </div>
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As an example, using only desert military bases in California and Nevada, which receive a lot of sun, would produce enough power to supply the entirety of North America. In practice, a mix of rooftop solar and utility farms in sunny areas is the most robust approach.</div>
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It's instructive to consider areal land uses for other forms of energy production. In Australia's picturesque Hunter Valley, there are several enormous open cut coal mines. I computed that a solar farm operating for 20 years will produce energy equivalent in value to a coal seam 3m thick. That is, even if the coal is at the surface, and it's not, if it's less than 3m thick it's better to use as a foundation for solar panels than to dig it up and burn it. Further, there aren't that many coal seams that thick anymore! A similar argument about nuclear power, given a 20km exclusion zone, shows that more energy rains down from the sky in that area than can be produced by fission. </div>
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Coal - leave it in the ground. </div>
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Like wind, solar is not a continually available resource. It varies daily and seasonally. For this reason, a smarter grid with responsive demand, intersticial storage, and a rational pricing strategy is a worthy goal. In practice, this means that in the future power will be very cheap at noon and during summer, so all sorts of new applications are possible. My favorite examples, though far from exhaustive, are aluminium production and mass desalination for agriculture, both of which require power below the price of 1c/kWh.</div>
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Indeed, in 2017 solar power supply bids reached 2.7c/kWh in Mexico, indicative of a long awaited reversal of the decades-long trend of gradually increasing energy costs. Extrapolating is risky business, but at present rates solar power will reduce in price by a factor of 10 every 17 years. Continuing that trend, in 2050 power will be cheap enough to artificially refill rivers parched by global warming with pumps and desalination, for example. </div>
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This trend need not stop in 2050. It is my belief that by the time I die, historians will see the period between 1973 and 2013 as an anomaly, a blip, a detour into computing on an otherwise unbroken industrial trend towards ever greater deployment of useful energy for peaceful humanitarian purposes.</div>
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What is The Program? The Program is a vision for the mass deployment of solar power, smart grid technology, grid storage, and electric vehicles. It is now economically viable to talk about public funding of generational infrastructure on the supply side, while a clear roadmap will drive private innovation in vehicle design. </div>
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Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-71568208707119501842018-09-16T08:16:00.001+10:002018-09-20T17:27:09.980+10:00Unpopular opinions in space<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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One of the fun things about speculative technology is encountering people with different views, and then trying to understand why and how, essentially, the same set of axioms leads to a different conclusion. In some ways, the community can be divided up into camps, representing the acolytes of various well-known thinkers in the area. As an example, concerning where humans should live in space, some people suggest the Moon, others Mars, others asteroids, Venus, or giant stations in deep space. For a second example, opinions differ about where the money may come from. I previously dealt with the funding question in another blog: <a href="http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2017/09/how-to-fund-space-settlement-where-does.html">http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2017/09/how-to-fund-space-settlement-where-does.html</a> </div>
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In this post, I'm going to air three unconventional if not unpopular opinions, then spend a few thousand words explaining my views on them. I will endeavor to use accessible math and be quite clear about which axioms can be altered. My intention is to continue the conversation and to have, in one place, a concise summary of a point of view which can be referred back to as necessary.</div>
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<u>Rule 1: There is no problem in space that can't be most effectively solved by building a bigger rocket on Earth.</u></div>
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<u>Rule 2: There is no commodity resource in space that could be sold profitably on Earth.</u></div>
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<u>Rule 3: Self-replicating robots and matter compilers do not exist.</u></div>
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The implications of these rules are not as dire as they may seem. In particular, my recent book on Mars industrialization (<a href="https://www.amazon.com/How-Industrialize-Mars-Strategy-Self-Sufficiency-ebook/dp/B07GN3BJX3/">https://www.amazon.com/How-Industrialize-Mars-Strategy-Self-Sufficiency-ebook/dp/B07GN3BJX3/</a>) shares these axioms and retains an optimistic tone.</div>
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Why are these rules true? Read on!</div>
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<u>Rule 1: There is no problem in space that can't be most effectively solved by building a bigger rocket on Earth.</u></div>
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In short, big rockets are expensive, but managing interfaces in a vacuum is much, much more expensive. Case in point: The ISS.</div>
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Unfortunately there are very few large rocket development programs to use as baselines, but there are a few. The Saturn V, which could launch 110T to LEO, cost about $1.2b to develop in 2016 dollars. The Soviet Energia was considerably cheaper. The SLS has already consumed tens of billions, but it is well understood in the industry that it is not exactly a lean program. SpaceX is developing the BFR using only internal funds, and will probably spend a similar amount to the Saturn V, though with a lower per-flight cost and much higher overall performance. </div>
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In contrast, the ISS, which tested the idea of assembling a space station from modular parts launched using a partially-reusable shuttle, has cost $150b, and has taken the better part of 30 years to build, including on-Earth fabrication. And for that cost, a disproportionately high fraction of the overall station mass is consumed by the interfaces: heavy airlocks, narrow connecting passages, and architectural constraints. Further, the station will need to be retired in the next decade or so, as the "sausage link" interfaces are subject to bending fatigue that is gradually weakening them.</div>
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In a recent Quora question, I pointed out that a single expendable launch of the BFS would deliver much more volume to LEO than the entire space station (<a href="https://www.quora.com/How-many-BFR-launches-would-it-take-to-loft-the-entire-ISS-into-its-current-orbit/answer/Casey-Handmer">https://www.quora.com/How-many-BFR-launches-would-it-take-to-loft-the-entire-ISS-into-its-current-orbit/answer/Casey-Handmer</a>). That is to say, a Skylab-style station based on BFR could be launched in one go, at a cost equivalent to the marginal cost of a single spaceship at retirement, which is close to nothing. </div>
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Why is this true? The reason is that all large pressurized volumes require assembly from various sub-components. For Boeing jets, this is done in Renton, near Seattle. Even there, in a climate controlled factory, it is a serious headache. It requires a small army of engineers and technicians. But it is still cheaper to do it there, in the factory, than in flight or on the side of a small runway somewhere in the middle of Wyoming. </div>
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In short, as much construction and integration as possible should occur on Earth, where labor costs are about a million times lower than in space. Payloads should be launched in the largest possible units, in plug-and-play configuration. And that is why, even though building an enormous rocket is extremely expensive, it is the cheapest way to do business in space.</div>
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Are there limits to this? Yes, of course. The largest rockets ever flown delivered about 100T to orbit. It is not clear to me that rockets could efficiently deliver more than about 1000T to orbit in a single shot, with chemical rockets. This is due to fundamental limitations on the strength of materials in pressurized combustion chambers, fuel and material density, and Earth's gravitational field. But 1000T to LEO is a very, very large chunk of stuff compared to the current model for doing business.<br />
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Note: While I personally think that there are all sorts of good reasons to pursue reusable rockets, and that larger rockets in the correct configuration are easier to make reusable due to improved margins, this rule doesn't imply that reusable rockets are necessary. In particular, the space station would have been much cheaper and faster to build if it were launched on a Shuttle-derived expendable heavy lift stack. </div>
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<u>Rule 2: There is no commodity resource in space that could be sold profitably on Earth.</u></div>
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One possible exception: The elixir of life, if it could only be obtained on the Moon. </div>
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The usual examples range from water or Helium-3 mined on the Moon, to platinum-rich asteroids, to space-based solar power.</div>
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This rule comes down to a discussion of intrinsic value. Clearly, to be worthwhile, a space-based resource has to command an exceptionally high value-per-mass. There are a handful of commodities on Earth with values as high as $100,000/g, such as listed here: <a href="https://brightside.me/wonder-curiosities/the-16-most-expensive-materials-in-the-world-188955/">https://brightside.me/wonder-curiosities/the-16-most-expensive-materials-in-the-world-188955/</a> </div>
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It is important to note that none of these are intrinsically valuable. The illegal drugs are expensive because there's a high cost to being caught making them. The diamonds are expensive because their market is manipulated. And rare metals are expensive because they're very hard to chemically extract from rocks, but also because they're basically never used in industry. That is to say, there is no demand for them. </div>
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In particular, of all rare, valuable commodities there isn't a single one with a high level of baseline usage. This means that if the supply suddenly increased, because of an additional discovery, the price would collapse. Even if there was an asteroid of pure platinum orbiting the Moon, and there most certainly is not, increasing the global supply beyond baseline of about 40T/year would simply reduce the market price. </div>
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As for water on the Moon, water isn't even intrinsically valuable or rare on Earth. In fact, as I showed in a previous blog (<a href="http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2017/04/does-lunar-resource-exploitation-make.html">http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2017/04/does-lunar-resource-exploitation-make.html</a>), it is probably cheaper to import water from Earth to the Moon than to extract it there. And even if it were cheaper to obtain water on the Moon, there is zero case to export water from the Moon to anywhere else. </div>
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Finally, let's consider Helium-3. Helium-3 is a nice example, because it is relatively much more abundant on the Moon, and it is currently very expensive on Earth due to rarity. It is even used in some industrial and scientific processes as a refrigerant. But in order to make a business mining it on the Moon, adequate demand to both keep costs and revenues high must exist. For this, we are told, Helium-3 is a natural fuel for nuclear fusion. There may come a time when lunar Helium-3 fuels fusion-powered interstellar voyages, but I am unable to not put that in the science fiction bucket. </div>
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So what would a space resource have to look like, quantitatively, to make a business selling it on Earth? My interest here is to be inclusive, so I will <i>underestimate</i> fixed costs as much as possible on the first pass. Let's say that although currently it costs about $3000/kg to launch something to LEO on a reusable F9 flight, SpaceX's BFR reduces that further to $100/kg. Let's suppose that further the cost of delivering cargo to the Moon using hardware based on the BFR is $1000/kg and the cost of returning cargo from the Moon $10,000/kg, which assumes at least local oxygen propellant production. By comparison, the cost of shipping a container half way around the world is about $0.10/kg. </div>
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The question, then, is what commodity is relatively much more available on the Moon than the Earth to make up for the fact that shipping it is 100,000 times as expensive. I am not aware of any physical matter, short of the elixir of life, that would make this worthwhile. Yes, a tiny number of high net worth individuals may want to travel there for tourism, but that doesn't approach a billion dollar industry.</div>
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But what about space-based solar power, popularized by Gerard O'Neill in The High Frontier? While shipping matter to and from space is enormously expensive, it is much cheaper to beam microwaves as they have no intrinsic mass. </div>
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Gerard O'Neill's book was written in the early 1970s, when it seemed as though the world was headed for a Malthusian crisis of population and energy consumption. This is not the case anymore. Indeed, the fundamental challenge with space solar power is that although the solar resource in space is about 3 times as good as the best places on Earth, the transmission losses from space are comparable in magnitude. Economically, it is much cheaper to deploy solar photovoltaic panels on Earth than in space, where at best the delivery costs are 1000 times higher, the maintenance costs a million times higher, and the environment much more difficult to deal with. </div>
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As Elon Musk has concisely pointed out, the fundamental problem with space solar power is that it's obtaining a commodity, power, somewhere where it's expensive and selling it somewhere where it's cheap. This is not a good business. Indeed, it would make more sense to beam power from Earth to space stations, if they needed it. And, more generally, the same goes for supply chains for any other product.</div>
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That's not to say that microwaves have intrinsically low value. The trick is to use them for something other than carrying power, namely, information. And indeed, the majority of the space industry, and almost all of the non-military space industry, is dominated by microwave communications. The dispatching of information, through space, from specialized satellites made in factories on Earth. And SpaceX has a play in this market too, with their StarLink internet constellation. The right kinds of information, at the right place and time, are very valuable indeed.<br />
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Note: This rule doesn't necessarily apply to Earth-based manufacturing with a step performed in zero-G LEO. There are a number of companies pursuing niche products that exploit zero-G processes to make stuff, and at a potential level of revenue adequate to cover the cost of launch and recovery. These products however, do not necessarily lead to a generic space industrial capacity, or generalize in any particular way. There is no good reason, for instance, to extract material precursors from a passing asteroid instead of launching them from Earth.</div>
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<u>Rule 3: Self-replicating robots and matter compilers do not exist.</u></div>
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In answer to the previous two rules, some proponents of space settlement argue that it's not necessary to launch giant payloads from Earth. All that needs to occur is the launch of a small, robotic egg to a convenient asteroid. Once there, it will process the raw materials to produce whatever it needs, build thrusters, antennas, copies of itself, habitats, food, televisions, whatever. This asteroid will then be a glorified robot and can be steered back to the Earth in preprocessed, highly valuable form to be used as a mine or space station or interstellar spaceship or whatever.</div>
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This idea sounds great, and variations of it have been kicking around since at least the time of the ancient Greeks. The fundamental problem is that such a compact universal factory, or egg, simply does not exist.</div>
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That's not to say it <i>could</i> not exist. Indeed, E. coli is a very capable self-replication machine, given the appropriate environment. However, no known life form prospers in vacuum, and that's not for a lack of searching on the part of astrobiologists. So any matter-compiling asteroid-munching probe would have be mechanical in nature, not biological. And there are no robotic self-replicating factories in existence, not even close. </div>
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Indeed, the reason that there are so few countries capable of heavy industry, and all of them are very large, wealthy countries, is that industry is <b>big</b>. Why must industry be so big? The self-replicating machine that is modern industry requires about a million different kinds of specialists. Specialists train for years to be sufficiently efficient at their given tasks, without which the final product, such as an iPhone or fighter jet, may well take infinite time to complete.</div>
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There are numerous theoretical approaches to matter compilers, or rapid, atomic-level 3D printers, but I am not aware of any that pose a credible threat to the current industrial status quo. It would be cool, but as far as I'm concerned, we're more likely to have a vibrant lunar Helium-3 mining industry in 50 years than access to universal matter compilers. </div>
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What does this mean? There is no way to do advanced industry in space without thousands to millions of humans. There are no miracle shortcuts. We just have to find a way to support thousands to millions of humans in space, probably on a planet with a diverse array of natural resources.</div>
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Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-90404976442305749042018-09-04T06:01:00.000+10:002018-09-04T06:01:09.466+10:00How to Industrialize Mars<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">How to Industrialize Mars</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">I always prefer to start talks with a recognizable image. In this case, this is a Mars Global Surveyor image of Gale Crater, looking south. The crater is about 150km wide, and the Curiosity Rover is currently driving around near the right hand edge of the central mound. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">I’ll start with just a bit about me. I have many interests, though I’m formally trained in physics. I earned my PhD at Caltech in 2015, studying gravity in an effort to understand warp drive. Since it turned out to be impossible, I switched to working on the Hyperloop, where I was the levitation engineer, and more recently I’ve moved to JPL, where I work on GPS instruments. These pictures show me exploring the remnants of Siberian industry, a Tesla coil I helped build for Burning Man, and pointing at the Great Unconformity, a billion year gap in the geological record visible at the bottom of the Grand Canyon.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">This is also the place for the great disclaimer, beginning with the obvious stuff. It is a great honor to be here speaking to you all, but I must stress here I represent my own views and research, not that of my employer!</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Second, I don’t have a crystal ball. I don’t know for sure how to build a city on Mars. But this applies to most of us. We are all mostly not doing Mars settlement full time. Instead, we come together at events like these to share our ideas and enthusiasm and then spread it like the conference flu.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Finally, this talk/blog is derived from a book on the subject available gratis at: </span><a href="http://www.caseyhandmer.com/home/mars/" style="font-size: small; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #0097a7; font-family: Arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">www.caseyhandmer.com/home/mars/</span></a><span style="background-color: #fafafa; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, also available on Amazon at </span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/How-Industrialize-Mars-Strategy-Self-Sufficiency-ebook/dp/B07GN3BJX3/" style="font-size: small; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.amazon.com/How-Industrialize-Mars-Strategy-Self-Sufficiency-ebook/dp/B07GN3BJX3/</span></a><span style="background-color: #fafafa; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> for the princely sum of 99c. This work is a hobby of mine, it’s not my main gig, and my principal goal is to develop and workshop these ideas and disseminate them as widely as I can.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The goal here is to think systematically about visions of the future. It’s to inspire a more vibrant, rigorous level of discourse. It’s to help us find ways to find the right questions, questions that help us find useful answers.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="400" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/tcnIAxfdh563zKsuNAFdDnmvjwH9iukdhzeAzLMu0mWG8A2W0toflL8IL0UVNsnlAccz_MVT2AWoiIxLzg8PswnvrP7yw6brq7jmqwKlmULgpszEk4XYZwHaWQZ2-chYRb_yIy-J" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="365" /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Let’s begin by defining autarky. It means economic independence or self-sufficiency.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Google trends shows that this word became very important in the 1930s when impending total war in Europe demanded industrialization for survival. Even though the word had been around since the early 17th century, it was the second world war, or the war of machines, that drove home the importance of industrial self-sufficiency.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="245" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/E8DLOhnfWwrpMRoKWryRutacZQdOhltCEYQqlsazs1yTBvfoofexHsPo_Dkd_uVA285WEFSsqNAUT4UF2IkPZf3ick3e8USbUc0XPITeEWzSYqVBkmqtXum2k7yTSIiXPzmOjXVX" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The Martian, with Matt Damon, is one of my all time favorite films. When we think of self-sufficiency on Mars, we think of growing potatoes. But what would have happened to Watney without a ride home? The book is quite explicit about this. Even if he had plenty of supplies? Even with a thousand qualified friends and greenhouses more like the incredible farms in Holland, which have the highest productivity on a per-area basis on Earth? Death is inevitable.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="298" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/VVvqc_K-A8Xu8EKZScRn68ZfwqHaOyRxp_9BqaMt8JfOWgPOKqfuLrpfeSGH6hu2c-ruKVOhqzjyVlTyGfj4qLfyokfeVJK4nc3Z2m6dKfHgYOBn6SUDraOozfx28wKAcFX52r1v" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="397" /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">In the book of The Martian, Andy Weir writes that Watney depends on life support machines, including an oxygen generator, water reclaimer, and pressure vessel, to survive. These machines were made on Earth and beyond a handful of very basic repairs, cannot be built or maintained in space, and will not last forever.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Unlike the popular but flawed traditional colonial picture, humans cannot survive on Mars with 40 acres and a donkey. Like European geopolitics in the 1930s, survival in such an inherently hostile environment is simply not possible by analogy with the US history of rugged agricultural pioneers on the frontier. In fact food isn’t even the first thing to be produced locally, being rather hard to grow without lots of related infrastructure. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">It’s worth stating that while self-sufficiency for a Mars city is a worthy goal, in all but the most catastrophic scenarios, Mars and Earth would continue to trade essential parts. In the early days of the Mars city, actuaries will be able to calculate the consequences of supply interruption, just as they do for remote outposts and bases on Earth. Although manifests will be designed to minimize the disruption caused by a low level of supply interruption, total isolation will inevitably result in death after a few months or years. As the city develops greater industrial capacity, this grace period will gradually extend until the point where isolated survival is possible indefinitely, even though it would be far from optimal! The capacity for indefinite isolated survival is autarky.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">What is the alternative to agricultural analogies? How can we think systematically about industry in space?</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="91" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/famB7SUPpeSj1eP2CKkZqrcqNSgaQi_zcVtt-1MGWeDnIJe07fVuc8F4a0HUHliLlvOw2TPvRZsR77Y5RXpJSj5PDZcyZxT2sWIpOiqfhOHsRORwkqR1zRxf2i4NtQWcSnTHe-2E" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="253" /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">I would hope that my readers become very familiar with Cody Reeder! He has one of the most incredible YouTube channels: Cody’sLab. On this channel, he demonstrates the basis of a lot of primary production, including mining, farming, prospecting, and chemical purification. But even a thousand Codys would not survive very long on Mars. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Unlike Mark Watney, Cody has chemical and technical expertise adequate to build the necessary equipment from scratch. But while a thousand Codys could probably make *anything,* they could not make *everything* faster than the rate at which it breaks down in normal use. Indeed, if you watch the videos about his ranch, just keeping all the tractors and trucks running, in Utah with breathable air and access to McMaster-Carr, is sometimes pretty tough.</span></span></div>
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<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">It is simply not enough to grow some food. Living on Mars is more like living indefinitely in a submarine. It will require automated manufacturing and, among other things, lots of metal. So let’s think big! Really big!</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="300" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-CGrmlZjKEXlSuzh4vvp8EZ1SMlwvSwljK6VOFI6CkCAyuBD9863MiOoUoHifbu5No2PqEYtZ9nGYQWFn7jec2L_4td7tuOzttsVVnzt_cg-q7_li_4K4U19sj9umvEn7A9lEseC" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">This is Australia’s main steel works, BlueScope Steel, which employs 16,000 people and produces about three million tonnes a year. It takes 30 minutes to walk across, but probably wouldn’t be big enough for a self-sustaining city on Mars. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="266" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/ESXcyZHLDMiNjFCOIbkx6sxFpCi3RCZhp1Lsjc8EX3te8hPNeKcT63OFs8gym5jksHn57GSD9azcahwGrjDKxD9KdgwKnOWiDKlJXBTaotyfaQHdoPkhJNHpLrkx-UZ6R39lmxyG" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">This is the Tesla Gigafactory, which is pioneering the next generation of industrial automation. The Gigafactory makes cars and batteries, but Mars will eventually need at least basic chip fabs, an advanced composites supply chain, and active industrial research.</span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Again, the aim here isn’t to be completely descriptive. My goal is that this helps you develop a new thought, an incisive question, or a new strategy.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="243" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/IAHbnA82IKANzbVeyEHwwtVD61NMOY8nsZKbPGod7DVfrcM2MbRohyHE5XUZk1Ypm9Dpp-0Z6gWXVfsCwfjYYnI7kB8T0STMaQYi3GVCM4l7wE7OcXYYOUkToSoUUwU79_tnMTJ5" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">This is a good point to deal with a common diversionary tactic. Wouldn’t it be nice if self-replicating machines existed? 3D printers are very exciting precisely because they offer a technological shortcut for certain kinds of manufacturing. But they are not self-replicating machines, not by a long shot. They require very carefully curated input material and can produce only a limited range of parts.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Are self-replicating machines possible? Yes! Given the right resources, biological organisms can reproduce themselves, including my favourite here, Mr Platypus, and everyone else’s favorite, e coli.</span></span></div>
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<span style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img height="143" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/nIPDaT8FXp-nW3VLs4yhCZTf4BlH5InUMoqObhZmJJnxXue9JCgdrjIieFBZTbMofWDKVtJQ0yYkjHjXuz_6dDmL2JVD_S_GvYEvyL4-VLXFLZAxcTSxYetCZ8OC8JgH8jpcJj1E" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="200" /><img height="144" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/8yZGX-lDl0NtVDwNXbHRxYOwiMIo7Tr1TJckGW8VUSY9Vs6vzI4zRN5E4x1prAzc7fr9c8fMq3fan6u7fjxRXcAgmFVwT6JYyVA5_hwpuWCw9Tg-jot21MwTIGin-zpldxKx22T7" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="200" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small; white-space: pre-wrap;">But the platypus makes eggs containing baby platypuses, and e coli produces e coli. Convincing e coli to print a CPU or the platypus to lay an air filter would be something else!</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">So when we think of a self-replicating machine to solve all the industrial problems, we’re really describing a self-replicating factory or process that actually can produce anything. Which is nothing less than our modern globalized industrial society, in total. At least until someone builds a matter compiler, a regular staple of science fiction and asteroid mining concepts.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">So we return to the original question, how to compactify the entire industrial stack and ship it to Mars?</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">What sort of scale are we talking here anyway? Is this a big problem? Oh yes!</span></span></div>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; width: 451.276pt;"><tbody>
<tr style="height: 0pt;"><td style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1pt; padding: 5pt; vertical-align: top;"><div style="line-height: 1.38; margin: 0pt 0px;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">China, 1410m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Mexico, 129m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Turkey, 81m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">India, 1339m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Japan, 128m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Thailand, 69m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">USA, 325m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Ethiopia, 105m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UK, 66m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Indonesia, 264m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Philippines, 105m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">France, 65m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Brazil, 209m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Egypt, 98m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Italy, 59m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Pakistan, 197m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Vietnam, 96m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Tanzania, 57m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Nigeria, 191m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Germany, 82m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">South Africa, 57m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Bangladesh, 165m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DR Congo, 81m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Myanmar, 53m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Russia*, 144m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Iran, 81m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">South Korea, 51m</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small; white-space: pre-wrap;">Here’s a list of the 27 most populous countries. The bolded ones contain essentially a complete industrial stack, by which I mean the ability to produce, within its own borders, all or nearly all technology necessary to produce the most advanced machines, including container ships, fighter jets, rockets, computers, mobile phones, and nuclear weapons. Russia doesn’t anymore, but it did until quite recently. South Korea does, sandwiched between Japan and China. Germany does, as a hub of sorts for the rest of Europe. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">These data strongly suggest that a scale in the hundreds of millions is necessary to have enough labor specialization to support a complete industrial stack, and that’s on a planet on which we have evolved to survive essentially naked. Launching one hundred million people to Mars would be a major headache.</span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Let’s look at some counterexamples. Economically isolated countries like Albania, Cuba, North Korea, and Iran have every reason to attempt industrial autarky, and in many cases have tried really really hard. Yet even Cuba, with 11 million people, a very benign climate, and ample natural resources, has not succeeded. Australia, with 22 million, is not even close.</span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">I like to think that with further advances, it might be possible to achieve autarky on Mars with *only* a million people, after 50-100 years of transport and building. But this would not be easy. </span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">For comparison, imagine taking Iceland in 2018, a country with 350,000 people. Without imports, Iceland would regress to 18th century standards of living within a few years. </span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="236" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/1g_eyxlDoG8XJnLGlj6WYxQGhIzbwsIctTCEizlypggcjuiMky0bxX0LpaBbIPACtLiyy40lNuM5QOiwemvSJqHSV6HraT-uPYZhxUhLmGSg8fk0GOEtz6wW-G720eXPeZ-5zGXL" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The OOCL Hong Kong, the world’s largest containership, can carry about 22,000 containers, which is roughly equivalent to 2000 flights of SpaceX’s BFR. I estimate is at least several decade’s worth of flights. So, given only unlimited money and one containership of gear, one has to reproduce the industrial versatility if not the might of Japan in Iceland by 2050, without substantial population growth. It’s almost unimaginable. But not quite!</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="100" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/PPrCrgDmFsxpYE9xNyxNMZQODPrO6tkadL3YsbFLKG-QdSuzXzfBTOq0QxmeMgOEn45ViM1l-UG-91M9u6nhP5d2GTn7ckXXbD5Mh6eN6eIpt337N3r6nDarl0vHw9-bN57lVvC6" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Let’s talk about how to increase per capita human productivity in Iceland, or on Mars, by a factor of a hundred or so. The trick is the mechanization of labor, which is related to why whales have big mouths.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="265" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/CCAF2HpH2QX_7oAKe7BmpCrOUpYyfhu_3EMtTKGKMli0eUpiFqKEZ7btssWSXAyeZWT6sbQxwvFthWO2HqCbIxDmRYuqALU7paM3m9G6YyCMFqak_bVG0bHDtog-n6QP9b9FZR3C" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Consider a pre-industrial agricultural society, such as the fields pictured above. All available energy in the form of work is derived from solar power, from photosynthesis, and all available physical labor is from human muscle. Therefore, the total output of the system is limited, fundamentally, by how much energy all the humans can consume and digest.</span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Yet the gap in GDP between industrialized and pre-industrialized societies is a factor of 30-60. By freeing themselves from the requirement of work of sweat off the brow, a single human can control a gigantic, usually gasoline-powered, machine, or even remotely program one, to perform labor on its behalf. </span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">We’ve already seen that while on Earth, a sufficiently motivated, knowledgeable individual can survive in many places with no resources, an industrial Mars will require the production efficiency of a hundred million humans. The fundamental problem for industrial human societies on Mars is a terrible shortage of labor, so the solution is to automate, mechanize, and outsource non-local tasks. By how much? </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="256" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/Y89EzWjvCqpAYGFNlOrzKzXfsyf9NgPyPYopORI0swLBBo4lQeMox9iERJhYwg2fh-nb95A8YYp-8waaZLbEQRfFFRhJ-mDcnXlbvalBGL5FXGyBtzbZ2ywrOALqN5v5f9ZNkldQ" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Consider the manual-mechanized continuum graph. For any level of technology, there is an optimal blend of human and machine labor. Compare, for example, the manual construction of the pyramids and the rapid modern construction of a house by a skilled contractor.</span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">As technology improves, the optimal point moves to the right, but it is *never* most efficient to completely automate something, even the construction of a moon or Mars base. Complete automation is a subset of the self-replicating machine problem. A complimentary mixture of humans and machines is the way to go. </span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="158" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/cqgxCXGiksJ-yEFu_UCHBtWHuJPKhqIIOnxARYFZQ_pNqqi2RKfD7TxpNgEfVsifoisjFElEmp2IHi-AMjWGTkVTsoWot0DMIXaXESRdpuXEj0dmSKMs2_jRGLiYOzFkMiSLwCj9" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="200" /></span><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="200" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IgmT91G_Ve_eIIVClKcjqww8tccbFwKEJHy1Kj9i8YSCMbsgDM-dXudcklNf9u73_hZTlVCQnJ9kfJKIIAn7Da9yigaattjBRjWKsfwfdcJFYCbxQeK4rvLtO1ijSzsV4WEg60dj" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="144" /></span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Take for example these two drilling systems. One is eight orders of magnitude more expensive, but doesn’t need a human to “line it up”. And sometimes it breaks down for a year at a time. Perhaps NASA paid too much for the rover, and it’s only 7 orders of magnitude more expensive than a human-controlled tool?</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">from future import industry</span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="224" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/CnOj1lLHM_jdlhReZLwfgO4d4g3R_J2XWI990lkFmMavPeT30MMRwhoWqEQntLxNJaTpgTBFAr5qlIwJXVfPBHFtjZPuPCSH7Ho89MXa0naxmYA1a8QhYmxou60tDJoo1e0w_4ZL" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">How can we achieve a Japanese level of industrial versatility and power with Iceland-style population? We must grow the fraction of labor that’s automated as the base scales. For instance, if the base doubles in size every launch window, the productivity of the supporting industries must also double, </span><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">without </span><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">doubling their labor requirement. Instead, individual labor productivity must also double at close to the same rate.</span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">What does increasing individual productivity by three orders of magnitude look like? For inspiration, let’s consider the development of programming languages. The answer is the sequential interposition of layers of automated abstraction between the human and the physical stuff. This approach is only </span><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">cost effective in situations of profound labor shortage, such as keeping up with exploding capability and complexity of modern computers. </span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Computer languages have evolved some hierarchy like machine code, Assembly, C, C++, Python. Each step encapsulates another layer of abstraction between the human writer and the fundamental logical operations, allowing much more powerful things to be done with a given labor pool. But let’s not stretch the analogy too much. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="224" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/_oaqZ9Ws9B7uLImd8vo_gTQnCtKKd7ICjd7S78xnnHzmXjSL0qyuE1oUzGka3yZLKcfzij1HrOaNrsK4A8CrZGB02A19qGtcVzVin51lg5VcR_72GZJudx9p3DHMgZ-0nxz5--xF" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0.00rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0.00rad);" width="298" /></span></span></div>
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<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The final question I want to cover is order of industrial roll out. What resources get made first? As a case study, consider this incredible open source robot arm, the BCN3D-Moveo (</span><a href="https://github.com/BCN3D/BCN3D-Moveo" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #0097a7; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://github.com/BCN3D/BCN3D-Moveo</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">). Mars will need a lot of robot arms, so this isn’t a bad place to start.</span></span></div>
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<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="204" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/ASzI1vzv1ZIHpPolmiJY1OI_cEccbG4HIq1upLHZIDkJEfNzYxOueiL7TbTom-ieppjyFKbPOtfjuZM6Nra9subLysooGRpGMjxu9565vU1RivrHalAPXKPZM34xsT64veTzUW0Z" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
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<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Here’s (the interesting half of) the BOM, or bill of materials. This is a shopping list from which the arm can be made. Broadly speaking, components fall into five groups: Structure, fasteners, bearings, motor, and power.</span></span></div>
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<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b></div>
<ul style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<li style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Structure, which are the bones, base, and carry the weight of the arm.</span></span></div>
</li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Fasteners, such as bolts, rivets, screws, nuts, clips, and so on.</span></span></div>
</li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Bearings, which enable two adjacent hard parts to swivel past each other with low friction and wear.</span></span></div>
</li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Motors, which provide the forces. Motors are deceptively cheap due to mass manufacture, but often require weird magnets and low sulfur high conductivity copper and other things that are hard to come by on any randomly selected part of Mars.</span></span></div>
</li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Power, which includes cables that move electricity around but also printed circuit boards, control logic, microcontroller chips, and other components which are relatively cheap on Earth, light, and very difficult to make from scratch.</span></span></div>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">I tabulated the cost as a proxy for manufacturing difficulty and the mass as a proxy for transportation difficulty from Earth. While a workshop on Mars could make any of these parts, mass local manufacture will proceed in order of mass divided by difficulty of manufacture, which is the order tabulated above.</span></span></div>
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<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img height="336" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/UjdTJuHLLAWrSUUGzU9AQY-aCHSNZh1bgxeFJ3ru2NA_uV6e4paXa9K0iRJbS6ppD-QIGJBzCxMj-7Ds-kp6H097cgCbASYT0iKicxfEZbKC5cPog5E-EhS38dEFrVPvqCRGebSx" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">This is what you’ve been waiting for, the roadmap for industrialization. There’s a lot going on in this figure, so let’s unpack it!</span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">On the left, I’ve ranked successive orders of magnitude of industrial “closure”, or local production capacity. Starting with oxygen, then water and fuel, plastics and some food, then masonry, structural metals, then alloys, electronics, advanced chemistry and computer processors.</span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">On the bottom, we have population. Today, we are in the bottom left, with only robots. With local production of oxygen and fuel, humans can explore and even operate outposts like the Antarctic stations. But at some point vast quantities of cargo and humans will have to be shipped to traverse this dangerous area of potential collapse. This area is dangerous because the population is too large to be evacuated and too small to be self-sufficient. The city traverses the graph toward the top right, such as the trajectory marked in red. Ultimately, the city has a large population and a diverse, self-sufficient industrial base. </span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The major primary industries deal with mining of any desired element. Because each mine will have to operate in the hostile Mars environment, emplacement of primary industry incurs a much steeper labor penalty than increasing complexification of secondary manufacturing, which can be conducted entirely inside large, pressurized, climate controlled habs. </span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">For this reason, from the exploration phase until the cusp, marked with a purple dot, each order of magnitude of mass self-sufficiency requires more than that of people. Beyond this point, marking the completion of a local basic material supply chain, relatively small additions of population have an outsized effect on industrial closure. I estimated the critical stage on this graph is from about 1000 people to 100,000. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The fundamental limit here is Earth-Mars cargo capacity, as illustrated by the grey lines. Cargo capacity is determined by how fast we can build gigantic rockets here on Earth. Today, SpaceX can build about 20 cores a year, but Boeing can build 560 737s a year, a machine of comparable complexity. So I think this is a tractable problem, within the capabilities of our current civilization.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">In summary, autarky is possible, but requires a really bold vision for scale, lots of giant rockets, lots of people, lots of ongoing, though non-infinite, investment of money and effort on Earth.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">What questions do you have?</span></span></div>
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Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-47840533357802717442018-08-05T15:13:00.001+10:002018-08-05T15:13:31.330+10:00Atmospheres and Terraforming<div dir="ltr"><b style="font-weight:normal" id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-b2f8c583-087f-b80b-481f-8962b112bf3c"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-b2f8c583-087f-b80b-481f-8962b112bf3c"></span><br><span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-b2f8c583-087f-b80b-481f-8962b112bf3c"></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;display:inline!important"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">I have been meaning to write a blog about terraforming for many years, but the recent controversy (thanks Elon) about some exciting MAVEN results is the perfect opportunity.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><br></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">MAVEN, or Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN, is a satellite orbiting Mars since 2014 specifically to study its atmosphere. Previous Mars missions have studied parts of its surface, and the InSight mission due to land in late November will study, for the first time, the interior of the Red Planet.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Mars' geological history is an enduring mystery. Much of the surface is heavily cratered, like our moon, meaning that we have a pretty good record of what ancient rocks were doing, because they're still there. In contrast, Earth's surface has been worn down and subducted many times through the process of plate tectonics. Yet if we look closely, there are clear signs of flowing and standing water. This is puzzling in many ways. Where did the water come from? Where did it go? Why did it stop flowing? And, given that back when this surface formed the sun was much younger and cooler, how could Mars have been warm enough to sustain liquid water on its surface?</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/8GFh4M03A2TlV4kDj4tkwfLFcap2RPiDi5svbDxrIJZWQsh9wv6PYnALEDDqaL5-_nHsfYBId-aK8D3tOlkYqLECIWWoK6auVRKAUTDTj2cJuV-U5QIAiAJ9DSLaJbctv8CzGDp3" width="418" height="500" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);"></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">This image shows gullies and deltas in the south west part of Gale Crater, not far from where the Curiosity rover is currently driving. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">MAVEN was designed to study the evolution of Mars' atmosphere, and a series of results have provided exciting new insights. It has long been theorized that Mars' atmosphere was gradually stripped away by the solar wind. Unlike Earth, Mars lacks a strong gravity well and a big magnetic field, which increases the rate that gases, particularly lighter gases, are stripped from the planet. This accounts for why Mars' atmosphere is today both thin and mostly of CO2. But since gases are constantly bubbling up from the interior of the planet through volcanoes, we needed to get quantitative data. MAVEN provided that data. Today, Mars loses about 100g/s, or 3000T/year, of atmosphere. This sounds like a lot, but the total mass of Earth's atmosphere, for comparison, is 5*10^15T. To put 3000T/year into perspective, a large passenger jet produces about that much CO2 in a week.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">It is a popular misconception that for humans to live on Mars, Mars would need a magnetic field. There are all kinds of difficult things about living on Mars (see </span><a href="http://www.caseyhandmer.com/home/mars" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">http://www.caseyhandmer.com/home/mars</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">) but building a planetary scale magnetic field would be at another level entirely. Fortunately, Mars does not need humans to built it an artificial magnetic field for any reason! As we will soon see, atmospheric loss rates are vanishingly tiny over the relevant time scales of less than a billion years, and Mars' current atmosphere provides adequate, if not flawless, protection against space radiation for nearly all cases.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">So what's all the fuss about?</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Noted Mars human exploration advocate Robert Zubrin, together with planetary scientist Chris McKay, wrote a series of papers in the early 1990s exploring the idea of terraforming Mars (see eg. </span><a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.24.8928&rep=rep1&type=pdf" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.24.8928&rep=rep1&type=pdf</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">). Taking Mars Viking data and using rather primitive simulations, they were able to show that, under some reasonable assumptions, there was enough CO2 frozen into the surface of Mars that only a tiny addition of heat, by humans, would be enough to tip the climate away from its current frozen state to a runaway greenhouse. As the planet warmed, it would release more gases, warming further! Eventually, this process would be slowed by the lack of remaining accessible gases. If the atmosphere became warm enough, water would melt and restart the hydrological cycle, creating a much more Earth-like environment, albeit with a poisonous atmosphere of mostly CO2. Still, having to wear an oxygen mask to breath is much less onerous than an entire space suit. </span><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><br class="gmail-kix-line-break"><br class="gmail-kix-line-break"></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Potential problems included uncertainties about the stability of a hydrological cycle on a planet with such tall mountains, as water would snow there and accumulate in glaciers, removing liquid water from the system and reflecting more of the sun's heat into space. Additionally, the total reserves of CO2 in the polar caps and under the soil was poorly constrained. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Last week, a Nature paper (</span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-018-0529-6" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-018-0529-6</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">) was published by Jakosky and Edwards arguing that, based on data from more recent orbiters, the total near-surface reserves of CO2 are much too low to built up the atmosphere enough for terraforming. What a bummer! </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">I'm not sure if I find this result surprising. I would think that if Mars were, according to Zubrin and McKay, only a few degrees away from runaway warming, that a sufficiently large meteorite impact or volcanic eruption in the last few million years might have been enough to tip the scales. And perhaps, in the past, it was. There is some evidence for smaller scale water flows in the more recent past, but whatever happened and when, the planet is cold and dry now. According to the principle that our present time is not "special" in any way, that suggests that Mars reasonably robustly and quickly returns to something like its present state. How much meddling is necessary to terraform the planet is another question entirely!</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Of course, the usual players got into the act on Twitter: </span><a href="https://twitter.com/DiscoverMag/status/1024135166007095296" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://twitter.com/DiscoverMag/status/1024135166007095296</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">. </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/WLk0h3G5klcVjg-pKNGQPW26GULw9zyH0qSd_E1IlHghG0ShXmpTppIYtq6kBSRneEkbW_KhHJ_AWwRBwB6CGwCkiVHq4Ygj0IqmwiBlk5JtDOiJzqRWj1nLsPw-MVjDZmILL-g4" width="373" height="434" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);"></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Ah Twitter, where you can watch your heroes disgrace themselves in real time! </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Clearly the only way to fix this impasse is for me to write a blog no-one will read adding almost no substantive information to the deafening screams. But with math!</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The Earth's atmosphere is thickest at the surface, and gets thinner as one ascends until it peters out into space. At the surface, we experience air pressure of 101.3kPa, or 1bar. I prefer bar as a unit of measure in this case! </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Even though gas is roughly 1000x less dense than condensed matter, it is still affected by gravity. Indeed, the reason that the air is thicker and at higher pressure down low is that all the air above it is pressing down on it. So even if we somehow liquefied all the air (by making the Earth really cold) the pressure at sea level would stay the same. In other words, a phase change doesn't change gravity! Only now the Earth would be covered not by a gaseous atmosphere, but by a thin ocean of mostly liquid nitrogen and oxygen.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">I personally really like this way of thinking about global gas and liquid resources. That is, in terms of a global equivalent liquid layer of some depth. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Let's start with our home planet, Earth. We're going to ignore sources of volatile molecules beneath the crust, though there's a huge amount there too, and focus on surface resources. Earth's global equivalent depth of water is 2.6km. The next most abundant molecule is nitrogen, with a global equivalent layer depth of 8m. Then oxygen, with 2m. 10cm argon, 4cm water, 4mm carbon dioxide (up from 2.5mm 5000 years ago), 0.2mm neon, and a hair of helium, methane, krypton, and hydrogen. This is a total depth of 10m, which will be familiar to SCUBA divers computing pressure at depth. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">By comparison, Venus has an atmosphere that, if liquefied, would be more than 600m deep. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">For humans to breathe, they need an atmosphere with oxygen, some buffer gases, and not too much of poisonous gases, such as CO2 and CO, among many many others. But how much oxygen do humans need? The partial pressure of oxygen in haemoglobin, the blood's oxygen carrying molecule, is 130mbar. This means that at a partial pressure of oxygen below this, the blood is not saturated with oxygen, and less physical activity is possible. For healthy, adapted, young people it's possible to walk around and live at 5500m of altitude (ppO2 = 100mbar), but it's pretty hard to reproduce over 4000m (ppO2 = 128mbar). </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">There are various tricks people use to exist higher up, such as breathing pure oxygen with positive pressure, but the same general rules apply. Lots of mountain climbers with great gear die all the time. Ideally, an atmosphere with 0.2bar is enough to allow physically active humans to breathe from an unsealed oxygen mask, but without a pressure suit. At the absolute lower limit, the Armstrong Limit of 68mbar is the vapor pressure of water at human body temperature (</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armstrong_limit" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armstrong_limit</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">). Below this, the body's surface fluids boil and adequate oxygen cannot be delivered by any means without a pressurized garment. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">On Earth, 0.2 bar is achieved with a depth of 2m of liquid water or liquids of similar density. On Mars, the gravity is 37% as strong, so a 2.7x greater depth of liquified gas is required. Condensed CO2 is about 1.5x as dense as liquid water, so taking these numbers into account, a layer of dry ice 3-4m thick on Mars is adequate to produce an atmosphere with oxygen mask enabling pressure. Is there 4m of CO2 mixed into Mars dirt within 200m of the surface?</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The next step is to examine the known resources on Mars. Mars' atmosphere is so thin it's about 1/100th as thick as Earth's. That is, if it were condensed, it would be about 10cm thick on the surface. In terms of its composition, that tiny crust is 9.6cm CO2 (+- 2cm seasonally, as some freezes out in winter), 2mm argon, 2mm nitrogen, 0.15mm oxygen, and less than a hair of carbon monoxide. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Despite the fact that Mars' atmosphere is almost totally CO2, it is thought that Mars' volcanic processes have produced significantly less CO2 over geological history than Earth, because Mars' small size and resulting reduced pressure in the mantle is unable to produce much CO2 from various metamorphic transitions at depth. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">So ideally a runaway greenhouse terraforming first effort on Mars would increase the volatilized supply of CO2 from its current level of about 10cm global equivalent depth to 4m, an increase factor of 40. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">At this point I would like to point out why it is that losses due to solar wind don't matter. If 4m of CO2 is produced in, say, 100 years, then that's a rate of 4cm/year. Even if global losses increased from 3000T to 300,000T/year due to an increase in cross section, the annual loss rate is an equivalent depth of 2nm. It's in the noise.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Zubrin and McKay (1993) attempted to estimate reserves of CO2 available. The two main sources they considered were the south polar cap and frozen into the regolith, with 100mbar and 400mbar of CO2 respectively. This is equivalent to 1.8m and 7.2m global equivalent depth respectively, or easily enough to get to a warm, wet, oxygen-mask requiring atmosphere, even if only half the CO2 was readily accessible. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">25 years later, we know a lot more about Mars, so let's check how Jakosky and Edwards have refined these early estimates. They estimate a total resource of 10cm of CO2 at the south pole (which turned out to be mainly water ice), and 1.8m absorbed on minerals in the regolith. They also provide an upper limit on total CO2 in clathrates (150mbar, 2.7m) and near-surface carbonate rocks (150mbar, 2.7m), despite admitting that there is little evidence for either, especially anywhere near that much of them! In total, there doesn't seem to be enough CO2 remaining on Mars to warm the atmosphere.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/tMZlnZOWoCzO9RnToBdj6Q65YFMFvMVmF_hTh5lzh8WXyfeYjMgXFwdMb_tN3tCKAwiIl3Ees-CGRvzGlu28-IqGG5AehI6ZtxZxOjr420RiAUX0hZCcmmhInjfPPga7VIQKTdwR" width="440" height="504" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);"></span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">In response, Robert Zubrin tweeted:</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><img src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-BziuGkD7g6-KaiFnsSz04OZU-8pJCRy3ZwYkgxACTI6o41GOrl8pkDV4Cyz3eDaXO8DhTR6iKuPrt_c_2FqplxrG_1d-WDU6QI9unQt36_TwcJkcd46bvxa-sIVlus3itJ8ARTC" width="454" height="350" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);"></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Both Zubrin and Jakosky estimate 1% soil mass fraction of absorbed CO2 by weight, though Zubrin goes down to 200m instead of 100m. Reducing his estimate to 100m, 150mbar of atmosphere is still a lot more than Jakosky's estimate of 40mbar. What's going on here?</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">I don't know for sure how they did their math, but it seems that Jakosky has assumed a regolith density equivalent to water, whereas rock is typically 3x as dense as water. Zubrin's estimate would call for a global equivalent layer of 4m of CO2 in 200m of regolith, since condensed CO2 is about 2x less dense than rock. 4m of CO2 under Mars' gravity produces a pressure of 220mbar, which while 25% less than Zubrin's estimate, would be adequate to walk around in. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">That said, 1% w/w is as much of a guess as 200m effective absorption depth. Even on Earth we don't have a good understanding of the water fraction of permafrost, or its thermal conductivity, or extent, and permafrost is a reasonably good analog for Mars perma-CO2-frost.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">As far as I can tell, there just might be enough CO2 on Mars to begin a greenhouse warming effect, but even in Zubrin and McKay, they recognize that uncertainties in regolith affinity for desorbed CO2 could shift their equilibrium a lot. In other words, it really doesn't hurt to tip the scales solidly in the desired direction. We know this is possible, since with a 1mm addition of CO2 to Earth's atmosphere we've warmed the planet considerably!</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">A wide variety of terraforming methods have been proposed over the years, some less practical than others. The overarching goal is to increase the total amount of heat energy on the planet. The baseline heat source is the sun, which delivers about 10^16W (10 petawatts!) to the surface of Mars.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">In order from least sensible to most sensible:</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Nuking the poles.</span><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> The Earth has about 15,000 warheads with a total yield of 6500MT of TNT, which is 2.7x10^19J. This sounds like a lot, but is equivalent to only 45 minutes of sunlight. Even if the bombs were carefully landed and detonated under the ice caps, instead of exploded while flying by, the net contribution to the heat budget is negligible. Even if all the uranium in the crust of Earth AND Mars were enriched and allowed to produce heat in reactors, it wouldn't be enough to make a difference. The sun is THAT powerful, which is why solar energy is so exciting.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Crashing comets.</span><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> Mars is pretty dry, though the exact quantities of water left frozen under the surface is not very well constrained. It could be between 20cm and 200m global equivalent layer. Even if it turns out there's no water or gas left, the thinking goes, comets or small moons could be brought in from the outer solar system and crashed into the planet to thicken the atmosphere and warm things up a bit. Unfortunately, the sheer quantity required to do this exceeds known reserves of comets! Not to mention the fact that landing enough of them to make a difference would completely resurface the entire planet and kick up enough dust to ruin things for centuries. Finally, the energy and time required to move icy bodies from the outer solar system inward is quite prohibitive, compared to the requirements of other methods listed below.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Giant mirrors.</span><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> The fundamental advantage of mirrors is that they can be made extremely thin, and thus with relatively small quantities of material. Additionally, a mirror can be made in a curve to concentrate sunlight on a particular area, which is necessary to either melt down to subsurface resources or vaporize carbonate rocks. A series of mirrors 100km on a side could be made with as little as 40T of material, so in principle launchable on a Falcon Heavy then flown using solar wind pressure to Mars, before finding a stable equilibrium between Mars gravity and solar pressure, from where to gently barbecue the planet.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The last two options are concerned less with adding more heat to mars, but preventing heat from escaping once it arrives. They require interventions on the surface.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Black dirt or lichen.</span><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> The amount of light reflected by an object in space is the albedo, and varies between 0 (perfectly black) and 1 (perfectly reflective). Mars' albedo is 0.15, meaning that 85% of the sun's visible light that falls on it is absorbed. If we could decrease the albedo a bit more, the planet will absorb more heat energy from the sun, and warm up. Mars' albedo increases during the southern winter, as a thin layer of CO2 freezes out of the atmosphere, covering large areas with reflective white snow. The best way to reduce this effect is to blacken the snow, such as occurs in the ski fields of Europe after an Icelandic eruption. Mars is already quite dusty, but the distribution of black dust over the surface would increase the absorption of solar energy. Even better, dark colored lichen, genetically engineered to survive on the harsh surface, would propagate itself over the planet "for free", without humans having to go out and paint 145 million square km of landscape.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Greenhouse gases.</span><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> As far as CO2 goes, it's a pretty good greenhouse gas, blocking emitted thermal radiation across a wide range of wavelengths. It does, however, have some holes where it is transparent and allows heat to escape through the atmosphere and back into space. This blog (</span><a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/10/visualizing-the-greenhouse-effect-emission-spectra/" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/10/visualizing-the-greenhouse-effect-emission-spectra/</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">) has a great explainer on the matter, while (Wordsworth et al. 2017 </span><a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1610.09697.pdf" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://arxiv.org/pdf/1610.09697.pdf</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">) discusses the implications for the early Mars climate. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Human-produced greenhouse gases can be selected to block the gaps in the CO2 absorption spectrum. The best gases for this purpose are perfluorocarbons, or PFCs. On Earth they're generally used in relatively small quantities in chip manufacture, medicine, and the production of Teflon. But on Mars, provided adequate supplies of fluorite mineral from which to derive fluorine were located, rock-eating PFC factories would dump gases like CF4, C2F6, and C3F8 into the atmosphere as fast as they could be built. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">(Marinova et al. 2005 </span><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2004JE002306" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2004JE002306</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">) estimates that the addition of 0.2Pa of the best gas mixture is adequate to trigger runaway warming. 0.2Pa is a global equivalent layer of 6.6 microns, but since they'd have to be produced at discrete locations, a consideration of the total mass required is in order. 0.2Pa is equivalent to a total production of 7.8x10^9kg, or 0.958km^3 (in the condensed state), of which about 80% would be extracted from fluorite, and 20% from CO2 in the air. This sounds like a lot, but in 2017 we managed to extract 5.4km^3 of oil from the Earth. If fluorite were discovered in dry lake beds at 10% ore concentration, then an area only 10km x 10km x 100m would need to be excavated, comparable to the largest open cut mines in the world today. Of course, this process would occur not at one huge hole but numerous sites selected for natural resource abundance, and over many decades. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Production would, of course, require massive automated digging machines powered by nuclear power plants, but the net heat retention for the planet per joule of uranium used would be millions of times greater than detonating it in an atomic bomb. Once PFC levels were high enough, runaway warming using frozen CO2 would be triggered, eventually resulting in a warm, wet, though poisonous atmosphere.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Finally, let's examine long term prospects for Mars. Using variants of the above processes, Mars could likely be given a warm, wet atmosphere in a small number of centuries. But even if humans can walk around outside wearing only an oxygen mask, it's not quite terraforming if plants and animals can't easily exist. To do this, a large fraction of the CO2 atmosphere will need to be converted to oxygen. For humans, a global equivalent layer of about 3m of oxygen is needed. This is more oxygen, on a per area basis, than Earth's atmosphere, because of Mars' lower gravity. If Mars' atmosphere has stabilized with, say, only 6m equivalent depth of CO2, converting half of this to oxygen will severely damage the planet's greenhouse. More worrying, most plants and animals cannot tolerate high levels of CO2, no matter how much oxygen is available. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">In the Mars Trilogy, author Kim Stanley Robinson elides this difficulty by proposing that organisms on Mars wear a CO2 filter mask, or get a genetic modification to increase their CO2 tolerance, as some diving animals like crocodiles can on Earth. Such a future is so far away at this point that I can offer little better than science fiction myself! Perhaps ongoing production of PFCs, plus orbital mirror blasting of carbonate and nitrate rocks will produce enough atmosphere that an Earthlike existence will be possible. In any case, careful ongoing and energy intensive management will be necessary to restabilize the climate at any desired level.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">I feel like it's time to wrap up. I think it's very exciting that our ongoing robotic missions to Mars have enabled such an interesting conversation, and that powerful dreams for the future continue to inspire hope in new generations. Sending humans to Mars is within our technological capabilities. Sustaining them on the surface indefinitely is possible. And, eventually, making Mars more like Earth is a worthy challenge. </span></p></b><br class="gmail-Apple-interchange-newline"><br></div> Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-36119502029778711292018-07-21T07:05:00.001+10:002018-07-21T07:09:20.115+10:00The High Frontier: A Technical Critique<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-8ae08d64-b980-2f72-2485-3a0527a13ee5" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The High Frontier: A Technical Critique</span></span><b id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-8ae08d64-b980-2f72-2485-3a0527a13ee5" style="font-weight: normal;"></b><br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<b id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-8ae08d64-b980-2f72-2485-3a0527a13ee5" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Casey Handmer</span></b></div>
<b id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-8ae08d64-b980-2f72-2485-3a0527a13ee5" style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<b id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-8ae08d64-b980-2f72-2485-3a0527a13ee5" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">"The High Frontier," published in 1976 by physicist Gerard O'Neill, remains </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">the</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> text on space industrialization. The culmination of a series of studies through the early 1970s, it presents a compelling vision for life for millions of people beyond the Earth. Today, in 2018, its themes continue to resonate. As several space companies position themselves to launch humans into space on a permanent, sustainable basis, I decided to write a technical critique of "The High Frontier." What works, what doesn't, and how will companies using it as a blueprint, including Blue Origin, have to adapt its ideas after 42 years of intervening discovery?</span></b></div>
<b id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-8ae08d64-b980-2f72-2485-3a0527a13ee5" style="font-weight: normal;">
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In this critique, I will:</span></div>
<ul style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Begin by restating O'Neill's arguments in the strongest possible light. </span></div>
</li>
<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Examine the assumptions that underlie his quantitative estimates.</span></div>
</li>
<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Identify any misperceptions in need of correction.</span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Establish feasibility bounds and figures of merit, in comparison to the original assumptions. </span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Explore ways in which the vision could be extended with a more modern perspective.</span></div>
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</ul>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">What is the High Frontier?</span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">O'Neill paints a compelling image of gigantic cities in space. Consisting of large pressure vessels capable of housing thousands to millions of people, they would rotate to provide artificial gravity. Separate sections would be used for industry or high intensity agriculture with 24 hour sunlight, enriched CO2, and precision hydroponics. The living sections could be landscaped in any desired style - O'Neill is a particular fan of Tuscan architecture. Thus protected from the vacuum of space, people could conduct routine commerce and industry of practically any sort, freed from the constraints of Earth's gravity, limited resources and available space.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="315" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/_E4duwPIlAcsysNW4vtoEKYgnmYaJdwm9ziPoKE9D82au-cFEsoIHeABoivKpwLl73vD0T8ecPk_-4rB7BDfe0-3sTbH1JEWvylyQT_sYWQWvJKbY-qTwXM-zephnJqFpHKzPFWV" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In 1976, Earth's resources seemed more pressed than ever. With population growth since 1945 averaging 2% per year, and energy consumption 7% per year, it seemed quite likely that by the early 2000s, Earth would be consumed by the throes of a Malthusian catastrophe. Expansion of industry to space, with its substantial resources, was a relatively cheap alternative. Not long after the book was published, growth stabilized at a more sustainable pace, and in the last few years energy and economic growth seems to have begun to decouple from hydrocarbon extraction, potentially freeing humanity of a major energy constraint.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="265" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-HRLcvx96_smXZ9nLbWKrz67zrDsQbfNmhhyUPXTqbMhatCxIuzu9A-33YuK5xwcv9tlrfSPQn0ENrPHlrV6a9cpIbJ1Oe5Ei3deM3a1FwUYxSDscpcMT2ZK5FD9dwKVtoXXXEDs" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="377" /></span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A gigantic rotating space city would weigh millions of tonnes and could not possibly be launched in one piece, or even in sections from Earth. Once in space, it would continue to require a variety of raw materials to make up for gradual entropic losses, and a versatile, vibrant industry to process raw materials into any of the thousands of products needed to keep this island in the sky functioning. </span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">While launching supplies from the Earth is possible, there are other sources of bulk raw materials in space with much less gravitational binding energy, including the Moon and asteroids. O'Neill envisioned an electromagnetic mass driver system that could launch small slugs of partially processed moon rock from a series of mines on the Moon, to the city somewhere nearby. He and his students even built a series of mass drivers to demonstrate the technology, which is today considered reasonably mature. Extremely high accelerations over short distances reduce the amount of infrastructure needed, while a stream of 1kg packets fired every second or so is adequate to provide a city with enough raw materials to make up for loss and use. Today, we know of numerous low energy transfer orbits which could convey material from the moon to almost anywhere in cis-Lunar space.</span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">With industrial self-sufficiency sketched out, O'Neill turns to the question of economic self-sufficiency. Building and operating a space city would be enormously expensive, and would continue to require shipments of specialty components, such as computers, from Earth, essentially forever. What, then, could the space city offer Earth in order to complete the trade? While the city has a supply of moon rocks, O'Neill recognized that there wasn't concentrations of sufficiently valuable minerals on the Moon to make it worthwhile for selling in an Earth-based market. The city in space had become a solution looking for a problem.</span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">O'Neill settled upon space solar power as the source of space-derived value necessary to balance the trade. Space solar power has certain advantages: The product could be beamed to Earth without having to go through the trouble of re-entry. The product was available essentially 24 hours a day, while on Earth the sun sets at night. Recall that in 1976, energy storage technologies such as batteries were barely on the horizon. </span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In addition, with 7% per year growth in energy demand, the US and every other country was looking at major infrastructure investments to meet demand for the foreseeable future. The entire grid would have had to have been overhauled every few years, at significant expense. </span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The final part of the problem that O'Neill examined was bootstrapping. What was the minimum viable space city that would have to be launched from Earth, could support enough people to build most of its structure from Lunar material in space, and then grow from there? Over a series of studies, O'Neill and his team were able to reduce the size of the minimal investment to only 250 shuttle launches, or 6500 tonnes. In 1976, the shuttle had not yet flown and 250 launches was thought to be about five years worth of flights, which seemed quite reasonable even without expected follow-on improvements in launch technology. </span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Quantification of assumptions</span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Thus far, O'Neill has sketched a compelling vision, a future for humans in space, unfettered by the limitations of Earth. At no point does settling the High Frontier require any miracles of technology, warp drive, or an investment equivalent to the entire GDP of the Earth for 100 years.</span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">That said, there are still a number of assumptions, all of which need to be true, for O'Neill's vision to be viable. The most crucial of these center around the economic question.</span></div>
<ul style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Space power needs to be lucrative.</span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Space launch needs to be cheap.</span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Space industry needs to be compact.</span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Overall, the space cost multiplier needs to be low.</span></div>
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</ul>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I will begin with the space cost multiplier question, since it's the highest level estimate possible in this case. In 2018, the per-person-day-in-space cost of the space program is about $4m. The per-person-day-on-earth cost for people of equivalent qualifications is about $400, so the human space operations cost factor is about 10,000. It is not necessary, or particularly useful, to be more precise than this. On the other hand, the value of the solar resource in space is about 3x higher than on Earth, since about ⅔ of the sun's light is blocked by the Earth during the night, or by terrain, clouds, or atmosphere. For places close to the poles, this number can increase by perhaps a factor of 10. </span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So even if it were possible to build gigantic solar arrays in orbit, and to capture and transmit the power to where it was needed on Earth with zero losses, the operating costs in space could be no higher than 3x that on Earth, in order to remain competitive. This is the major problem with space-based solar power. Fundamentally, the sun's light is not scarce enough on Earth, nor valuable enough on a per-m^2 basis, to make it worthwhile. </span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">While beyond the scope of this essay, I will point out that there is no practical constraint on available area for solar panels on Earth. Solar will always use a small fraction of the area devoted to agriculture, because eating plants is about 10,000x less efficient than solar for producing mechanical work. </span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In fact, if we examine current and near-future commercial uses of space, the vast bulk of the industry is supported not by high power transmission of raw microwaves containing electricity, but by low power transmission of </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">structured</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> microwaves, containing </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">information.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> The per watt value of microwaves is the fundamental question, and beaming TV, GPS signals, phone calls, and internet, is a much more sustainable business model than beaming raw power which is freely falling down anyway!</span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The problem with space-based communications as a a business model for space cities is that satellites are much cheaper to build and launch from Earth than to build them in space, since they are of quite small size and involve advanced, complex manufacturing.</span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">There is an additional source of risk for long-term space infrastructure project financing, which is that not only is solar power very cheap on Earth, with a record low wholesale price of $0.023/kWh in 2018, it is getting cheaper by leaps and bounds every year. Even if a space solar power concept was valuable on paper in 2018, there is every chance that continued investment and development on Earth will lower the price so much that, like gas-powered peaker plants, a space solar power station will become a stranded asset and major loss.</span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Let's examine the other assumptions in turn, while bearing in mind that the total cost increase for space based power can be no higher than 3x that on Earth, corresponding to the relative value of the solar resource under the generous assumption of zero losses in transmission.</span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The cost of space launch must be cheap! </span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In 2018, the cheapest space launch was by SpaceX, at about $2000/kg to LEO. For much of the previous 3 decades, 10x this was commonplace. Yet, in "The High Frontier", O'Neill speculates that regular flights by the shuttle will reduce launch costs to the order of $100/kg. The math on reusability is much the same today, but despite recent advances in this area, improvement by another order of magnitude remains in the realm of speculation. By comparison, the cost of shipping bulk products or materials around the world on ships and trains and trucks is about $0.05/kg. At that price, an Earth-based solar panel can be shipped through every country on Earth during its production process and still have negligible increase in marginal cost compared to launching it to space.</span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Space-based industry must be compact! </span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">O'Neill doesn't write from experience with industrial processes either in the 1970s or today. However, our modern economy splits machine and human labor about 1000:1 in energy terms, and as a result, any further developments for space applications will require even more automation/mechanization than is used today. There just aren't that many factories that make complicated things that aren't so big one needs a bicycle to get around. I've written at some length (</span><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pJzvdbtHaej9SKmNoggIrqVx-GgJO2VmpN2z2cxejPA/edit" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(17 , 85 , 204); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pJzvdbtHaej9SKmNoggIrqVx-GgJO2VmpN2z2cxejPA/edit</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">) about the difficulties of space-based industrialization, and it's not clear to me that any metal-processing nearly self-sufficient city can get by with fewer than, say, 10,000 people. The practical upshot is that throughout the bootstrapping process, the space city will remain dependent on bulk shipments of supplies from the Earth, unless and until a compact primary and secondary manufacturing paradigm can be demonstrated. It is worth stating that such an industrial system would be extremely valuable for nearly any country or city on Earth, and that despite dozens of attempts, no geopolitically isolated country has achieved it. </span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Resynthesis</span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">At this point, the view is rather bleak. It turns out that O'Neill's space solar power gold mine is not viable. Does that mean the dream of millions of humans living and working in space is dead? Not quite. In this section, I explain how future technology development can help bring this vision about, through:</span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Money consumption assumption relaxation </span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Value-added manufacturing</span></div>
</li>
<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Cheap launch</span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Compact industrialization</span></div>
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</ul>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">First, there is an implicit assumption that replicating the entire industrial stack in a pitiless vacuum has to make money, and on the same sorts of time scales as other large projects. Yet there is an obvious difference in scale between, say, a large bridge or chemical plant, and building an industry larger than all but a few nations on Earth. Moreover, large scale infrastructure investments are routinely made by nations with no prospect of any sort of short term return. Expenditure on health, education, defense, and other big ticket items is maintained for a variety of other reasons. Indeed, the largest expenditures by governments promote the general welfare of the nation and wider economic benefits. </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="gmail-kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="gmail-kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I personally think there is no way to mine the moon, asteroids, or build cities on Mars and </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">make</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> money while doing it. I think it's worthwhile to find ways to maximize the results of a given expenditure, but fundamentally any large scale movement of humans into space will be a net consumer of wealth, to the tune of many billions per year, for decades. This expense, which is quite affordable at the national level, will employ and develop many industries on Earth, and will likely involve many of the same contractors and people as the current big ticket defense contracts do! In other words, it will not necessarily involve any new expenditures, just a slight change of course from weapons systems toward space factories.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This is not to suggest that it is pointless for cities in space to sell things in Earth-based markets, even if selling at a loss. The problem is to identify things that are worthwhile enough to bother. This is a tough problem, since nearly everything that humans needs on Earth can be found on Earth and at competitive, commodity prices. Humans in space will need to extract resources, grow food, and maintain their machines with asteroid- or moon-derived raw materials. But while such primary manufacturing is necessary to build a city in space, it's unlikely to be competitive on Earth, which has its own supply chains and breathable air. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">What, then, does a good product for production in space and sale on Earth look like? It must be</span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Not readily and cheaply available on Earth. So, not a bulk commodity, like water, dirt, salt, electricity, humans, good TV, or anything in the McMaster-Carr catalog. </span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Not incredibly difficult to make, or requiring lots of human labor. Advanced composite aircraft, cars, aged care, childhood education, cutting edge silicon, medical imagers.</span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">High value-added manufacturing. That is, something where the sticker price is much, much higher than the cost of the constituent components or raw materials. The German economy is built around this sort of manufacturing, and it is a comfortable middle ground between bulk commodities, on which there is no margin, and manufacturing nightmares, which require huge scale.</span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Transportable to Earth, if a physical product. So not hugely susceptible to the shocks and forces of reentry. Also, quite small in size, and with a very high value per mass. It is possible to estimate how valuable per kg something would have to be on the Moon to make it worthwhile to transport to Earth, and it's on the order of $10m/kg. This is comparable to enriched plutonium or tritium, and those markets are very elastic. That is, their value is linked to rarity. Also, the Moon doesn't have any bulk deposits of enriched plutonium lying around. With mass drivers and space cities, this cost premium would come down, but not by much. As a rule of thumb, it must be at least as valuable, in bulk, as any vanishingly scarce commodity on Earth. Perhaps the elixir of eternal life? </span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Relatively easier to make in space than on Earth. Perhaps some weird zero G crystals? Optical fibers? Unique tourist experiences?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It is hard to say in advance what advanced manufacturing might be possible and valuable in space. This is another reason to build a city in space with a primary mission of self-sufficiency, and a secondary mission of trying to be useful.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Finally, cheap launch and compact industrialization. These relate to the two main factors for the cost of building a city in space. How much stuff is needed, and how much does it cost to launch? </span></div>
<br /><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In my book on Mars industrialization (linked above), I estimated that a million people and a million tonnes of cargo would be needed, over several decades, to achieve full self-sufficiency. For a space city near the Earth, full self-sufficiency is not required, but overall mass requirements are higher as there is no readily available raw material. A million tonnes sounds like a lot but that's only three fully loaded container ships of the largest size. Additionally, it accounts for high technology equipment, and is separate from whatever cargo is launched from mass drivers on the Moon.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A million people and a million tonnes is actually a substantial reduction over the current state of the art, representing a further advance in mechanization of labor equivalent to the total advances to date since the industrial revolution. This industrial compactification is necessary to achieve (near) self-sufficiency in an adversarial environment, in just the same way that nuclear submarines weren't possible before steel was invented.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">At current launch costs and technology, a million tonnes to LEO would require on the order of 100,000 launches at a total cost of $5 trillion dollars. If launch is to be, say, 10% of the overall program cost, and the program is budgeted at $10b/year for 50 years, then the total launch budget is $50b. This requires a reduction in launch costs of a factor of 100. To put that in perspective, that's close to the long-term goals of the SpaceX BFR or the Blue Origin New Armstrong, and could only be achieved through complete and rapid reusability of the launcher. This is not forbidden by the laws of physics, but it is a big ask.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Giant cities in space are possible, but require ongoing nation-state level funding, continued aggressive technology development in both launch and industry, and a willingness to think well outside the box when it comes to monetization. </span></div>
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Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-25522812071358552852018-05-03T18:24:00.001+10:002018-05-03T18:24:32.413+10:00A new car and various lucky breaks<div dir="ltr"><div>As I approach my first gigasecond, I've recently enjoyed noting a number of traditional "life milestones" occurring, vaguely on schedule. But just how "on schedule" should these milestones be? Given that there's only a dozen or so in a lifetime, it is reasonable to assume that there might be, among a population, some shot noise. Shot noise is where random jitter leads to apparent clustering.</div><div><br></div><div>So I'm excited to share that in the last six months the following good things have happened:</div><div>- C and I are expecting a sprog in August.</div><div>- C started a new job at JPL doing cybersecurity for Europa Clipper.</div><div>- We moved house to a lovely new place with awesome neighbours and lots of plants, and crucially more space.</div><div>- I started a new job at JPL developing a next generation GPS receiver for all kinds of cool science.</div><div>- We bought our first car together. It was C's first new car and my first car, and it's an electric car - the Tesla Model 3. </div><div><br></div><div>It's really pretty. We accidentally drove it to the top of a nearby mountain.</div><div><div style="color:rgb(34,34,34);font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-size:small;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_gPLVfjeDyyVXpKCkUcNB0Eig1YTh6eBmXKYzFBN6DRjfblQbo7OAsic5dfq8UPHL09lupLzYjzyL4-18JZJ55MN0rkDtcQnpriE16maOPL2ntMZluqUyp4TbZz91Qi2FnsQs-fGyyu4/s1600/DcJfSvgVwAArJpi-772415.jpg"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_gPLVfjeDyyVXpKCkUcNB0Eig1YTh6eBmXKYzFBN6DRjfblQbo7OAsic5dfq8UPHL09lupLzYjzyL4-18JZJ55MN0rkDtcQnpriE16maOPL2ntMZluqUyp4TbZz91Qi2FnsQs-fGyyu4/s320/DcJfSvgVwAArJpi-772415.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6551267696079674738" /></a><br></div><div><br></div>It's also awesome to drive. Normally driving in LA induces tears of frustration interspersed with moments of round-eyed terror, but in the Tesla I find myself actually *looking forward* to driving. Obviously it's fast, comfortable, and has an app with which I can remotely set the interior temperature. But somehow it's more than that. </div><div><br></div><div>Our previous car, a hand-me-down Infiniti G35 2005 sport sedan ("space car") fulfilled roughly the same segment 13 years ago - a fast 5 seat medium sized car with heated seats. I was just getting the hang of stick shift! Like all cars, its various features found an equilibrium that was heavy and sometimes challenging to drive, particularly in heavy traffic.</div><div><br></div><div>The Tesla is based on an entirely different architecture, and so its inevitable engineering consequences result in a much more driveable car. And not just because two taps on the drive stalk engages autopilot!</div><div><br></div><div>Of my peers I am by far the greatest laggard when it comes to buying a car, particularly in LA, where car ownership is nearly universal. For many years I was fortunate to live and work within walking or biking distance, and more recently I've occasionally used Lyft or Zipcar to go on longer trips. As someone who worked in the transportation space at Hyperloop for two and a half years, I'm keenly aware of the terrible toll that cars take on our lives and our cities. </div><div><br></div><div>Cars exist as entities that are fundamentally incompatible with human bodies. They are much heavier, much faster, and much larger. The practical consequence is that designing a city that functions effectively with universal car usage and is also walkable is impossible. Even a city of any size that is car only is impossible. Like satellite internet, there is an optimal population density of about 100/sqkm (sparse suburb to semi-rural), beyond which either congestion or infrastructure costs become serious problems. Even a city like Houston, where about 70% of the land area (many billions in real estate terms) are devoted to roads, highways, driveways, and parking lots, suffers from crippling congestion. Cars can eat the whole city and still be hungry for more. </div><div><br></div><div>Moreover, it's fairly clear that widespread autonomy will only make highway congestion worse, as the marginal cost of being stuck drops, encouraging yet more road usage.</div><div><br></div><div>But there's only so much that a lonely crusade can achieve. With our family growing and our work place being surrounded for many miles only by houses that cost many millions of dollars, some degree of driving will be inevitable. So - a car.</div><div><br></div><div>Why a Tesla? It's really expensive, even including the TSLA stock I bought back when it was trading at about $30/share. The trade in offered us $500 for our old car, which has a few scrapes. We could get a car worth 10x as much, such as a 2015 Prius and still be WAAAY ahead on cost. There are a couple of reasons.</div><div><br></div><div>First, let's consider what Tesla is trying to do, and what industry more broadly should be trying to do. Gasoline (petrol) costs, on an energy basis, about 100x less than food. This is why it's possible to run something as big and heavy as a car on a modest wage. But gasoline is expensive in other ways. Money is, in some sense, only the first moment of value. By historical accident, gaseous waste products can be dumped for free, in a way that solid and liquid wastes simply cannot anymore. </div><div><br></div><div>Look ahead 100 years, or 1000 years. The world, if a sensible technological civilization still exists, will have transitioned to renewable energy. Today, newer, less harmful technology is expensive, because the customer (me) has to internalize some costs that competitive legacy products externalize. Do I mind paying a bit extra? No, not really. If people like me are prepared to open their wallets for a better future, then we have a hope. In other words, what is good for my personal enjoyment is also good for building a market demand for less environmentally destructive industry. I don't think this is a new concept, but it is a concept that needs continuously shifting targets to be meaningful.</div><div><br></div><div>Second, it's just so damn cool. The future is electric. Ever since I saw my first Model S prototype way back in 2011ish I've been hooked. This isn't even my first blog about Tesla. I even use battery powered power tools because I'm fascinated by wireless stuff and being able to work even where the cables don't reach. The ultimate expression of this idea is battery powered flight. Just this week, European aeroplane manufacturer Pipistrel obtained regulatory approval to sell their electric plane in the US - the first mass produced electric plane in the US. The Pipistrel has a lot of oomph, but again, think ahead. </div><div><br></div><div>When I was a child, electric RC cars were a lot of fun. My brother and I salvaged a few and had many fun hours zooming them around the place. Battery powered cordless drills were also entering the market. And today we have a mass market human-sized electric car that crushes the competition. According to Tesla's earnings call today, the Model 3 is poised to become the highest selling premium sedan, and might even eventually eclipse the rest of the sector *combined*.</div><div><br></div><div>About 10 years the Syma 107G toy electric helicopter entered the market, and today almost anyone can save and buy a professional quality drone quadcopter. Their capabilities are already pure scifi - the Skydio can autonomously track a moving human while flying through trees and branches. Some models are designed for long flights of more than an hour, while others are designed to fly quickly through obstacle courses piloted by humans using remote radio-transmitted video. </div><div><br></div><div>A few years ago I got my pilot's license flying antique Cessna 152s. The Cessna is, mechanically and electrically, stuck in the mid 1950s. The general aviation market is tough for innovators in all kinds of ways, but pushing that bucket of bolts through the sky while flying a $50 drone around my house made something click. What electric power has done for cars it can do for aircraft too. Today, of course, electric aircraft can't fly very far, but batteries are improving and there is more to flying than crossing oceans. I look forward to affordable, ecologically sound supersonic flight using electric power. </div><div><br></div><div>Back to the car, for whose name I am thinking "skylab". I've been thinking a lot about manufacturing and industrialization recently. It turns out that car manufacturing is, in many ways, a gold standard of a mature industrial economy. Making cars is really, really difficult. Making them well is even harder. The Tesla Model 3 is a miracle of manufacturing. No, it's not *flawless*. There are quirks of design that are well documented, and ours has slightly bulgy headlights. It is, afterall, one of the first ever built, since I queued up on day one more than two years ago. </div><div><br></div><div>Persian rugs traditionally are hand made with a small imperfection so that the artisan can avoid the envy of the gods or hubris. In some ways, minor imperfections serve as a reminder that the car did not simply spring into existence, fully formed. It was made of obstinately uncooperative atoms forged in a supernova, mixed by geological processes, mined in nearly every country on Earth, and formed together into a single shiny, fast package only by the ingenuity and effort of humans. </div><div><br></div><div>When Elon Musk announced the Model 3 two years ago, mass production was to ramp up in 2020. In response to more than 400,000 reservations within 24 hours, somehow they brought that timeline in two years. There is, of course, no shortage of skepticism in the press, but let's not forget that there are very few people who could speculate authoritatively about this car even six months ago, and even fewer who would. Yet dozens of self-appointed experts have rained a constant stream of pessimism since the earliest days of Tesla, 15 years ago. "Electrical cars are impossible." "American manufacturing is dead." "Tesla will fail before 1/2/5000 units of the S/X/3 are produced." "Tesla will run out of cash." "Consumers will never spend the money." What utter rot!</div><div><br></div><div>The car exists. I encourage you to take a ride as soon as possible!</div></div> Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-62458137541801513162018-04-16T16:15:00.000+10:002018-04-19T14:48:41.810+10:00Tiny 3D printed jets<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Regular readers may know of my enthusiasm for 3D printing, particularly science datasets as wearable jewelry. Photos of almost all my designs can be found here: <a href="https://goo.gl/photos/QDC1s7YoVRRNanj87">https://goo.gl/photos/QDC1s7YoVRRNanj87</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I should add that I enjoy collaborating on new projects if anyone has a fun idea!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Over the last year, I've been thinking about where to take this hobby next, as I feel like I've *done* topographic prints of planetary surfaces. One area of interest is in dynamic models, or really cool things that move.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">One project that is ongoing is a 3D printed fully functional capstan table - a table that rotates and changes size. See example here: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKEOYfYQO08">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKEOYfYQO08</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">But the first completed dynamic project is, I'm happy to say, a conditionally functional jet turbine engine about half the size of my thumb.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU0pnFmOHK2WojOIYvO080spIk4TK69uMQG7LdU0IQgtTgCusP4LxtPeImxdwWIU_ZXnCc0647f3U154WMPc2QHnztOA5KwGT5WsfKOFHn6Y1phcQB6ZTReVQHQVO9kxT0TX7t1l28WNM/s1600/image-774734.png"><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6544926607388479634" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU0pnFmOHK2WojOIYvO080spIk4TK69uMQG7LdU0IQgtTgCusP4LxtPeImxdwWIU_ZXnCc0647f3U154WMPc2QHnztOA5KwGT5WsfKOFHn6Y1phcQB6ZTReVQHQVO9kxT0TX7t1l28WNM/s320/image-774734.png" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">In designing this engine, I drew heavily on model jet engines employed in expensive RC planes (such as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPGDAZyQ44k">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPGDAZyQ44k</a>), but working out how to contract the size by another factor of 4 was a real challenge. I felt that if I could fit the entire thing into an old school film container, that would be cool. I remember thinking about jets of that size when I was about six. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">As a warm up, I designed and printed a Tesla turbine. My initial plan was to build a jet around a Tesla turbine because they're conventionally understood as high speed rotating machines that are easier for non-specialists to build. Later I realized that 3D printing meant I could design arbitrarily complex compressor blades because I didn't have to CNC it from a solid chunk with a toothpick. Still, the Tesla turbine spools up enough that the bearings leaked all their lubricant and the gyroscopic effects are very noticeable. Here's a short video about the Tesla turbine: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LKHJRukbQg">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LKHJRukbQg</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">This is the last hand sketch I made before switching to CAD. This design, the size of a film container, had internal fasteners and the fuel manifold near the rear turbine shooting forward, as well as some nozzle guide vanes which sadly were overlooked in the final design. It included the two part drive train with a central bearing to enable assembly, though. </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxoQs06PKtirSvUTR037_6yuoIenTdPnmSEc19ApXPVd2gEF2ub9QxFSatt6TKu9yx2NH0g4csVnyY_f4Z3AW2TRvoi6NgoZCxFbODt0JVMI-8Kiejfe5ILNC3xlyovxMDgM_K7QXGxT4/s1600/image-776750.png"><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6544926618430393970" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxoQs06PKtirSvUTR037_6yuoIenTdPnmSEc19ApXPVd2gEF2ub9QxFSatt6TKu9yx2NH0g4csVnyY_f4Z3AW2TRvoi6NgoZCxFbODt0JVMI-8Kiejfe5ILNC3xlyovxMDgM_K7QXGxT4/s320/image-776750.png" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Later, I realized I could make it less than an inch long, while staying within the material requirements of i.materialise's high definition stainless steel. They raised an eyebrow when I asked to print it, but it came back almost completely as expected. There's always some thermal deformation during sintering, but nothing that can't be fixed with a bit of force. Small size is also important because of cost. These parts cost about $250 to print, and cost scales up with the cube of size. Film container size could cost $1000!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I performed CAD work using OnShape, a free in-browser CAD program that is similar to solidworks.</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj62CQHRuOlIt9mNKtzX3oy7fbA-zck70eMIPSuO3sKnX2LTOu63T6oSgrMvvNzEqfAeRgy612z_aIMuT3W7HiqDWrMiVgWl3e8mkHu_5nTHGV8ikmDIwNcjmVL5jo-XFIscdlbjNyNtko/s1600/image-779189.png"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6544926626908313010" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj62CQHRuOlIt9mNKtzX3oy7fbA-zck70eMIPSuO3sKnX2LTOu63T6oSgrMvvNzEqfAeRgy612z_aIMuT3W7HiqDWrMiVgWl3e8mkHu_5nTHGV8ikmDIwNcjmVL5jo-XFIscdlbjNyNtko/s320/image-779189.png" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEYokUBBsesPb7JTZ56oORIbDZAuui6vmiKdFbzGPK5JvgyOVkpyl9cV62Ub9ch3vxvNinNRmlV6NOnhgBxhFxXmWEFpDHfmQrRVE-UEeldzPLtv8qAwRLqh5ImOYuKFVMUtOjsUlEaCY/s1600/image-781003.png"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6544926637738510898" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEYokUBBsesPb7JTZ56oORIbDZAuui6vmiKdFbzGPK5JvgyOVkpyl9cV62Ub9ch3vxvNinNRmlV6NOnhgBxhFxXmWEFpDHfmQrRVE-UEeldzPLtv8qAwRLqh5ImOYuKFVMUtOjsUlEaCY/s320/image-781003.png" /></a></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">The final design had 5 3D printed pieces, plus three teeny tiny bearings, and is held together with four axial M3 bolts and nuts. </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_Qzr3vcFN_W6EB365Ce7zOJYf3XM2LdJ_ghQ670lyRa-RoFqApdmQgmtQyAYd-S8Loz4YLA0uZ8P4fZ-VvZSN2FlYVr6iY06qUzz9MXI8mamYeo7a89WbowX7LPzfEHWeBU4UERtgJkI/s1600/image-782989.png"><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6544926646744838898" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_Qzr3vcFN_W6EB365Ce7zOJYf3XM2LdJ_ghQ670lyRa-RoFqApdmQgmtQyAYd-S8Loz4YLA0uZ8P4fZ-VvZSN2FlYVr6iY06qUzz9MXI8mamYeo7a89WbowX7LPzfEHWeBU4UERtgJkI/s320/image-782989.png" /></span></a><br />
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">This 3D printed material typically comes with about 20 microns of "fluff" or rough unfinished extra surface. For the convex pieces I removed this in minutes with a drill and a file. For the concave pieces, I cursed my stupidity and went at it with the wrong dremel tool for hours. Eventually I was able to make it all fit together, and turn freely. I had to use some model wire to make the world's worst gasket to seal the "compressor" section, which had retained about a mm gap even after all the fitting work. Precision manufacturing, this is not.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFr3kyePtPyopKmZkCbV-O4kCNZFcSdZLNSnwjJZUhVD2QEXE8rsQRity19e4VsRGFY0Rml-Euyl77xNZNmT97SnGn3kf48FwMeq38Q50C-cqXDLD-1y_5zGXhqZ4oROkjFo7Zox5FagQ/s1600/image-784790.png"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6544926654439379810" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFr3kyePtPyopKmZkCbV-O4kCNZFcSdZLNSnwjJZUhVD2QEXE8rsQRity19e4VsRGFY0Rml-Euyl77xNZNmT97SnGn3kf48FwMeq38Q50C-cqXDLD-1y_5zGXhqZ4oROkjFo7Zox5FagQ/s320/image-784790.png" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">But let's not kid ourselves - this is a keyring fob first, and slightly functional demo second. The lax tolerances in the compressor stage alone render it miraculous that it actually moves air in a particular direction.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">During test I spooled up the compressor with canned air, and separately tested the combustors without any of the nozzles or rotating parts. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span>
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<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/ihb4ALkHGA4/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ihb4ALkHGA4?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">Spool up test: </span><a href="https://photos.app.goo.gl/vJYOpCx2tKY2BEs92" style="font-family: inherit;">https://photos.app.goo.gl/vJYOpCx2tKY2BEs92</a><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/RKayujxxg98/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RKayujxxg98?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Combustor test: </span><a href="https://photos.app.goo.gl/ePBsubk2dEK450D82" style="font-family: inherit;">https://photos.app.goo.gl/ePBsubk2dEK450D82</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">For final system test I decided to apply the old maxim "Don't try this at home. Try it at a friend's place instead." Particularly since the friend in question (@risknc) had awesome cameras and an air compressor I could use to spool up the rotating part, while handling fuel and ignition separately.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">This picture shows the final test before I disassembled the test stand. Here, the wooden block is charring, which greatly simplifies the re-light procedure. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUZC56S28z7eKR3dmqby5-HY6nHYBudiRYEzpttVht09j4WRPonhWQNH9tfwr2jkPp-Rt4UZvjy4KFImhLDcv5uCGaRH0BKPcVRyo2o1vXdkWO8snbRwUCDe11uGKI-Tg8jNQJx17htsQ/s1600/image-786629.png"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6544926657123385010" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUZC56S28z7eKR3dmqby5-HY6nHYBudiRYEzpttVht09j4WRPonhWQNH9tfwr2jkPp-Rt4UZvjy4KFImhLDcv5uCGaRH0BKPcVRyo2o1vXdkWO8snbRwUCDe11uGKI-Tg8jNQJx17htsQ/s320/image-786629.png" /></a></span><br />
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<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/rDk3_wowRSs/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rDk3_wowRSs?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Highlights: </span><a href="https://photos.app.goo.gl/YBEwg0Q3ggv4CRya2" style="font-family: inherit;">https://photos.app.goo.gl/YBEwg0Q3ggv4CRya2</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Full test: <a href="https://photos.app.goo.gl/41oj2g36oeIUZeMv2">https://photos.app.goo.gl/41oj2g36oeIUZeMv2</a></span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/ZK9qkNDcrWA/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZK9qkNDcrWA?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">Slow mo snippet: </span><a href="https://photos.app.goo.gl/g2DA442zwr9L0nWR2" style="font-family: inherit;">https://photos.app.goo.gl/g2DA442zwr9L0nWR2</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Full test in slow mo: <a href="https://photos.app.goo.gl/jB8kwDfDVZxajyyu2">https://photos.app.goo.gl/jB8kwDfDVZxajyyu2</a></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Fuel was delivered from a butane refill bottle and a long hose. During operation the flow of fuel did manage to keep the system turning, and as we got it dialed it we did see some combustion occur inside the engine. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Several design flaws were already apparent, in addition to the bearing housings being too small. The engine operates naturally in "flame out" mode, but the fuel injector doesn't introduce enough turbulence to keep the flames in the actual engine. I found it difficult to operate the engine sufficiently lean - a better fuel pressure regulation system is in order. Second, in design I had neglected to include nozzle guide vanes, which meant that the turbine was really under powered. Third, the bearings *really* didn't like the environment, although to be fair it was never meant to operate for more than a few seconds.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">I have updated my CAD model to address these design flaws, but I don't have any near term plans to do another print. I have too many other projects to build first. If you would like to adopt this project in an intentional way, please reach out!</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">One final comment! Over the last few years I've watched a few inspirational makers on YouTube. These very clever people encouraged me to try more ambitious projects and to document them, albeit nowhere near as well. In particular, I have loved watching Adam Savage morph from the goofy Mythbuster to a slightly curmudgeonly glimpse of my own future, only with an amazing shop and incredible collection of props. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">It has not escaped my attention that when I first watched Mythbusters I hadn't learned trig or calculus, my inner nerd was only just forming and, growing up in rural Australia, I was only dimly aware of engineering as a career. Since then, I've enjoyed climbing the ranks of nerd-dom and recently achieved a lifelong goal of working at NASA JPL on space robots. If I think about it, it kind of blows my mind! On social media, I've made no secret of the fact that, of my projects, I think this is by far the best bait to nerd snipe* Adam Savage. So, Adam, if you read this far I hope you enjoyed this account of the tiniest (and only) jet I ever made.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">* Nerd sniping is when you think up something really wacky especially to confound a nerd, and thus distracted, enact some other agenda. <a href="https://xkcd.com/356/">https://xkcd.com/356/</a></span></div>
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Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-79666318754916378062018-03-26T10:45:00.001+11:002018-03-26T10:45:13.438+11:00Cassini memorials<div dir="ltr">Dear reader(s), some of you may recall the inevitable yet tragic demise of Cassini in September 2017. This mission was in flight for 20 years, and in development for long before that. It was one of the most successful deep space robotic missions of all time. <div><br></div><div>Here's a video animation about its last moments in flight: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68vxYRAony8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68vxYRAony8</a> <div><br></div><div>Cassini was built and flown from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, in Pasadena, California. Because I also live in Pasadena, I am lucky enough to know a few people who worked on Cassini! I found that over the last year, many of my friends and colleagues have been trying to understand the space left by Cassini. </div><div><br></div><div>Into this void I have added just a few cute ideas, some developed with friends, to function as reminders and memorials of this exquisite mission.</div><div><br></div><div>The first was an idea by Morgan Cable, executed collaboratively. I've made rings before with surface features including Mars and the Sierra Nevada mountains. For this one, we decided that the outside of the ring should be the interesting parts of the surface of Enceladus. Enceladus is a tiny icy moon of Saturn, and Cassini discovered that Enceladus has hundreds of ice volcanoes, revealing a potentially habitable ocean beneath the ice. </div><div><br></div><div>The interior has a relief sketch of Cassini itself, and a profile map of the rings of Saturn, ordered so that as the parts that stick out wear, they become brighter than the background. We chose stainless steel by i.materialise for the material, since it boasts really high resolution. The surface is a relief map focused on the south pole terrain. Because there is no publicly available (even within NASA) map of Enceladus topography, I wrote a program that took images of the surface and converted them to topography, using assumptions about surface brightness and solar angle. The map I have is not absolutely calibrated, instead I set the min and max altitudes so that the ring would have plenty of bumps on every side, but none too sharp! </div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMMX89OXEGJ6NJ9neaX8gP8MErlwKJb5iymlRdMqVFZ9_NfrYRO9Uv2fwJcC2r7VRkeT4xWvLxeNPOF3UlRl_ZPVKjfb4hXXsuwU2U5yFeKDlZKnas9Yv9qIGT-rFcj30zflSMPwDp9f8/s1600/image-713441.png"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMMX89OXEGJ6NJ9neaX8gP8MErlwKJb5iymlRdMqVFZ9_NfrYRO9Uv2fwJcC2r7VRkeT4xWvLxeNPOF3UlRl_ZPVKjfb4hXXsuwU2U5yFeKDlZKnas9Yv9qIGT-rFcj30zflSMPwDp9f8/s320/image-713441.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6537032628818543602" /></a></div><div>Cassini is inside the ring.</div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihPHe0EuDxWNthWIZ0GTdyeHxtT-NyPmZOmqJkNOipZIDkszXmx3JIMbwN2Czc-A5ysvDXoIKv3WeLTF8qNaZgs-bN5j1vI5gLasYTwHHHqXD-hfk98Q9wDLmhFUEFqBFkqpHHJDTvNPM/s1600/image-715519.png"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihPHe0EuDxWNthWIZ0GTdyeHxtT-NyPmZOmqJkNOipZIDkszXmx3JIMbwN2Czc-A5ysvDXoIKv3WeLTF8qNaZgs-bN5j1vI5gLasYTwHHHqXD-hfk98Q9wDLmhFUEFqBFkqpHHJDTvNPM/s320/image-715519.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6537032638854553890" /></a><br></div><div>The fat part is the South Pole Terrain, showing the four "tiger stripe" fault lines where the cryovolcanic activity is concentrated.</div><div><br></div><div>The next project was a Cassini plushie. Late one night awash in Cassini-related sadness on Twitter, I was devastated to realize that there wasn't a tangible Cassini soft toy to hug. Because we live in the future, I was able to find a company that made custom plushies online, send some design notes, and then build it. I think it was the first time they had made a space robot (perhaps they based the design on a bee!), but I was very happy with the final product - I even added some eyes on the instrument platform.</div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSiLJfcBNwTOVfW5GK1JNCDcOoMuNYCZ3EfYCrOmlLp69OqgBraHCvRmzzYePBJkXiZt_ya7-aHygs4jykDpRM4KcI2GukmT1cMyQBRajoi6l6RBDuJ6Yx8qwZNgEXJ2fMg938zHFrfVo/s1600/image-717083.png"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSiLJfcBNwTOVfW5GK1JNCDcOoMuNYCZ3EfYCrOmlLp69OqgBraHCvRmzzYePBJkXiZt_ya7-aHygs4jykDpRM4KcI2GukmT1cMyQBRajoi6l6RBDuJ6Yx8qwZNgEXJ2fMg938zHFrfVo/s320/image-717083.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6537032646903217282" /></a><br></div><div>Here's me with the Cassini plushie. It has a magnetometer boom, a Huygens probe (an ESA-provided probe that landed on Titan), 3 RTGs, a little rocket, a high gain antenna, and an instrument platform. *sigh*</div><div><br></div><div>The final project (thus far) was inspired by Cassini's orbits. This image was taken from this video (<span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-size:small;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:underline;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:rgb(255,255,255);float:none;display:inline"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch">https://www.youtube.com/watch</a>?</span><wbr style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-size:small;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-size:small;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:underline;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-color:rgb(255,255,255);float:none;display:inline">v=g2-7BFMLUuA</span>) showing all the orbits of Cassini around Saturn. The final 10 years of the mission used the last percent or so of the fuel, so the mission planners had to be VERY clever about using Saturn's moons and their gravity to maneuver Cassini where it needed to go with just the tiniest orbital changes.</div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6WPI0W-FKyjs9ohg2-ADkfKl_JVHzmbnIqvRb_zudLQq7U7EIDMJ1MlXz7NkG2TnNbTzEthV3QuVR6rbb6gMx2IuYRgvQVJAmr39IHWstatHXddsYGppxIbh7cMzsX7nJ21d_A-kh4hQ/s1600/image-719043.png"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6WPI0W-FKyjs9ohg2-ADkfKl_JVHzmbnIqvRb_zudLQq7U7EIDMJ1MlXz7NkG2TnNbTzEthV3QuVR6rbb6gMx2IuYRgvQVJAmr39IHWstatHXddsYGppxIbh7cMzsX7nJ21d_A-kh4hQ/s320/image-719043.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6537032648694802322" /></a><br></div><div>The last segment of the mission (in red) involved diving the spacecraft between Saturn and its rings for 22 last orbits before crashing into the planet. </div><div><br></div><div>A former Cassini mission planner and friend from Caltech theatre days David Seal suggested a version of his belt buckle with the orbits inside. It was non trivial extracting orbital data from the relevant database, but then I picked an orientation, squished it vertically, wrote some code to extrude the curve into a solid tube, then integrated it with a frame I drew up in OnShape. I've had some trouble printing the final version. Like many of my designs, it's right up against the limits of what these 3D printers can do. But I'm optimistic we'll get there.</div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqAjIq_fUxrzeeFBo0_ieq6iTu3ar6vMi-TbZzTWyMEi0LsUK12NYAM87JyzuoKgFvOZDI33HUyePNNPlTyduw1ExTPcrydI4h5R7m3VgIO5x3J1ikxmwodBy9O8T6hw7ZuLZT5B6z9uc/s1600/Screenshot+from+2018-03-25+15%253A00%253A26-719821.png"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqAjIq_fUxrzeeFBo0_ieq6iTu3ar6vMi-TbZzTWyMEi0LsUK12NYAM87JyzuoKgFvOZDI33HUyePNNPlTyduw1ExTPcrydI4h5R7m3VgIO5x3J1ikxmwodBy9O8T6hw7ZuLZT5B6z9uc/s320/Screenshot+from+2018-03-25+15%253A00%253A26-719821.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6537032649084232274" /></a></div><div>Here's an image of a prototype conformity check.</div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhShcsq62r01yPSlR4ipJYk6QKi9kti1IfE3HyEptGygEC9qlXBqbnp4XEbg1qzYTJeYdPuNSyeHW7o7983-CxbJV_eBWIQuSwT7FNXYvRfXn-7DupxMq30miZ8CJ5ptVoR3KAw9ooyX_Y/s1600/image-720493.png"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhShcsq62r01yPSlR4ipJYk6QKi9kti1IfE3HyEptGygEC9qlXBqbnp4XEbg1qzYTJeYdPuNSyeHW7o7983-CxbJV_eBWIQuSwT7FNXYvRfXn-7DupxMq30miZ8CJ5ptVoR3KAw9ooyX_Y/s320/image-720493.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6537032655214127698" /></a><br><br></div><div>I'm always looking for new ideas for 3D printed stuff, so if you have an idea get in touch and we'll see what we can do. <br><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div></div> Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-62360961273035767792018-03-06T11:42:00.001+11:002018-03-06T11:46:39.302+11:00India 2018<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Two weeks ago I went to India as an invited speaker at several student-organized technology festivals. I had a great time in India (as usual) and really enjoyed the experience - except the flights around the world, which were pretty tough. India is a long way from the USA. But it's better than walking.<br /><br />Photos: <a href="https://photos.app.goo.gl/y7L6YNcdOpvjsHnn1">https://photos.app.goo.gl/y7L6YNcdOpvjsHnn1</a> <br /><br />Transcript of the talk: <a href="https://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2018/03/footprintstrystpragyan-speech-transcript.html">https://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2018/03/footprintstrystpragyan-speech-transcript.html</a> <br /><br />This whole episode began when some students from NIT Trichy, a technical university in southern India, invited me to speak at their festival, called "Pragyan". I cleared the time in my oh-so-busy schedule and agreed. Then they asked if I minded going to a few other places too, and they could share the cost with other universities. I thought this sounded sensible, so in the end I was lined up to speak at three places: "Footprints" at MSU Baroda, "Tryst" at IIT Delhi, and "Pragyan" at NIT Trichy.<br /><br />My flight left in the afternoon. The usual litany of complaints apply: My Lyft driver was scary. Check in took forever. Security was even more slow and pointless. The gate lounge was overlit, noisy, and crowded. The flight was delayed an hour. Eventually I found my seat, which was a window on the left side. As I had hoped, as we flew over northern Canada I was able to watch the aurora out the window for about 20 minutes. Unfortunately my phone camera wasn't able to capture it, even with fully manual control. The light on the plane wing got in the way, but it was still pretty cool. The only other time I saw the aurora was flying back from India on my last trip. Any flight in the northern hemisphere that will result in terrible jetlag, is conducted during the northern winter, and leaves at the right time of day will fly over the pole in darkness, which is a pretty good opportunity to look for the pale green washes of light.<br /><br />The sun rose as we cruised past Iceland. We flew over the Shetland Islands and I saw a bunch of oil platforms in the North Sea, the coast of Norway, the edge of Denmark, and a bunch of gigantic windmills. In the haze of exhaustion, dehydration, and tiny seat compression I had a remarkably clear vision of how I could adapt the Australian parenting philosophy to my own questionable life choices. "First, we'll go to Australia to play with gigantic poisonous snakes. After, we'll decompress by hitchhiking to Siberian gulag." We flew over Turkey, and Iraq, where I saw the Tigris river. There's something special about the northwest corner of the Indian Ocean and early civilization.<br /><br />Two days later we landed in Abu Dhabi, where my fully loaded long haul 777 flight on Etihad, the state flagship carrier, was forced to unload down a single mobile staircase. I had about 90 minutes to clear security and immigration for transit, and as usual it was complete bedlam. Of course the departing flight was sneakily delayed, so I did make it. The seat next to mine was filled by a very broad shouldered man who snoozed and leaned over, bracing me securely against the bulkhead, where I was able to doze. <br /><br />In Delhi airport there was, of course, no signage anywhere in the gigantic terminal, but eventually I found a corridor next to another corridor with 6 different kinds of unlabeled immigration lines, handed my passport over, and had arrived. Delhi is a bit of a tough city to visit - though it is improving. I wasn't overwhelmed by the heat, pollution (which stings your eyes before the plane even lands), supposed scams, terrible traffic (still better than LA), but by a general feeling of institutionalized bureaucracy, which seems to affect every capital city I've ever visited. Delhi is just on another level in terms of scale.<br /><br />Fortunately in Delhi I was met by a couple of the IIT students at the airport and transported to the connecting terminal for my next flight. It was about 5 miles away and had no formal connection system, just a sea of taxis. The security line had a bag X-ray, gender segregated metal detectors, and a frisking system. In practice this meant giant piles of baggage blocking the whole thing up due to multiple interlocking deadlocks. But what's the rush? I eventually found my flight, boarded, and had been traveling for just over 24 hours. The last flight to Vadodara was mercifully short, as the plane was full of mosquitoes and my repellent wasn't accessible. Let's just say I was ready to be out of planes!<br /><br />Fortunately the plane landed and let me out, and the trip got dramatically better. I was met by three local students who took me to the hotel, where I was in my room by 8am. I thought the students might be tired by their early start, but they were so excited in the lead up to their festival that they, and about a hundred other student organizers, hadn't slept much for days. I took an incredible shower, changed my shirt, then attacked the buffet breakfast in the hotel dining room. By 10am I had met A, a student assigned to look after me. I like to walk around a bit in blinding sunlight to help the jet lag set in, so we walked to the engineering school, sussed out the schedule, and said hi to everyone. The level of preparation for the opening the following day was at fever pitch. <br /><br />That afternoon we walked to Laxmi's palace, the closest monumental palace open to the public. It was built by the Maharaja in the late 1800s, has more than 500 rooms, and all the latest technology, including elevators, lighting, electricity, air conditioning, and a gigantic golf course. The armory, containing about a million exquisite Indian steel swords, was a particular highlight. <br /><img height="196" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/7gISJRCQ6aqio_BLLzYN7IzoFT-sDTBruN_hFUkAXu_0xF4oR7oFvqvWUmFvy4i849bjNLvIMrsosJSHiPG5krEOP-zf0Fgcv2vCQoqutikA3CPO9AVWSypsGbINfS2EhFzK8Co-" width="400" /><br /><br />I had plans to go to dinner in the evening, but I was mostly insensible by about 4:30pm, then slept in until 6am the following day. I took the opportunity to write a few words for a new book, then got dressed and headed to the festival opening ceremony. There I met another speaker, the neuroscientist Dr Vaughn, the various deans, and the university Chancellor, Shubhangini Raje Gaekwad, who lives in the palace I visited the previous day. I spent most of the rest of the day taking photos, signing things, talking to people, visiting various booths, checking out fighting robots, and watching the talks by Dr Vaughn and also Vineet Mehta, Tesla's power train specialist.<br /><br />The following day, I woke up early, practiced my talk, then traveled to the venue, a large auditorium in part of the local hospital complex. I was a bit nervous, but I got to the end with plenty of time for questions. The floor microphone failed, so I jumped down and ran my microphone to various people asking questions, which was a lot of fun! I felt like a TV reporter. After the talk, I bailed to the green room, changed into cooler clothes, and went to a sponsoring restaurant for lunch with everyone, which was amazingly good dahl and roti. <br /><br />Back at the school, I checked out the robot fighting arena. A raised platform with a mesh screen to catch larger bits of shrapnel, the robots were sometimes direct DC drive remote controlled via thick cables. D:<br /><img height="225" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/sv3GUw3am8uIqlzDkrF0th4c7fmsUTkbfDevP9gtPQ6XDW04rMNMU57MYy-VIPR8phqbyQLbAOZCHXbb62LRf2gIN0KGcXKK4or1y_jWvm0-wF2r7T7E7rX3-7HmyEkmsNZzfHe3" width="400" /><br /><br />My hosts asked if I would like to rest. I insisted I was fine, but they found an empty room, carried in a couch, and politely insisted that I take it easy. I guess a lot of their guest speakers are more distinguished people from colder climates who drop like flies in the early afternoon? I probably should have napped, but instead just read for a while, then took a car to the airport, performed the now familiar security contortions (don't put your boarding pass in the scanner) and waited for the flight. Back in Delhi, the students found me again, drove me to the IIT Delhi guest house, where I failed to operate the hot water heater, washed some clothes, and passed out.<br /><br />The following morning I was woken by the strains of a brass band at 5am, so I took the opportunity to wander around the university incognito and try to get some context and detail for my talk later that day. I saw many peacocks, including some that were flying, which was pretty amazing. Also prominent at all the universities were multilingual signs explaining the zero tolerance ragging/hazing and sexual harassment policies - an encouraging sign! <br /><br />I found the lecture hall and, the talks being sequential on a tight schedule, showed up in plenty of time. For some reason, the students ushered me to some separate room so by the time we got mic'd up and started it was 20 minutes late. So I cut the more depressing parts of my talk and then bailed out for lunch. I considered running away to Agra to see the Taj Mahal, but instead wandered around talking to some students, then decided to call an Uber and get out of dodge. I traveled to the nearby Qutub Minar, an 800 year old semi-ruined mosque. Particular highlights include the 72m tall minaret and the Iron Pillar of Delhi, a 7m tall iron post that is thousands of years old and rust free. It was pretty amazing. At the entrance, though, were two separate lines. A very busy line for Indians, and a short line for foreign tourists, who pay about 20 times as much to get in. It reminded me a bit of Cuba, which has separate currency for locals that is intended to provide cheaper goods and services for tax-paying locals, but in practice renders foreign money irresistible. <br /><img height="400" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/v9REmTc--FPWs9GZfTghGFCdFeuMbInf7x6wcsvUVbtSOCW_UP9mTPgk1pxCGFPLoCO-SFhNZeCXzBqNIn9e7p7rJgPomZIUi1OXFIo1P8ErFlKlxrd2mJ4gkYK76QyHSozoz_9I" width="225" /><br /><br />I found my way to the nearest metro station, then zoomed on the modern, efficient metro to Central Secretariat, in the middle of New Delhi. Here, I walked through a local park to the India Gate, and then up the road to Connaught Place, a very intense shopping district. All too soon it was time to return to the university by metro, grab dinner, and put my feet up. I walked about 17km that day, and I felt it. I think I must be getting soft. <br /><img height="225" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/JwXuAPRZexbOtFv6mPS3MB2ckxL8_0kmJ-SOw55RwpBYDtv-3Af4SogVsmpg4IZqnC3IiDbBaQSD9n-DYvnuZlYlCUo5ZKVRe_HWEDAkpha-zGkO6dgKlfGEv6sjNnVy_pERbUDW" width="400" /><br /><br />The following day, I went into the festival again and saw Robert Metcalfe's talk. He invented ethernet, the lowest level of the tech stack that powers the internet. After lunch, we teamed up and traveled into town to visit the American Center, where UT Austin and the US State Department have teamed up to build Nexus, a startup hub that's focused on training various incubators to help bootstrap the local ecosystem. Apparently there are about 400 incubators in Delhi! The local contractor had lived all over the world and had some amazing stories. <br /><br />We considered heading to the Red Fort in Old Delhi, but cut our losses and instead took an autorickshaw to the Lodhi Gardens, a landscaped park around 4 ancient tombs dating back to about 1500. Delhi is the site about about 11 ancient cities, many of which were partially or totally destroyed, built over, and left a variety of ruins, monuments, and other stuff. I found it fascinating how urban planners drew lines around the densest collections of monuments, which are now tourist sites. And, in the surrounding areas, unrestored tombs of often forgotten people lurk in people's backyards. Somewhat like Athens, one can't take a photo or turn a clod of Earth without hitting some aspect of 4000 years of history.<br /><br />That evening, Robert and I were pretty wiped, but wanted to have dinner with the Tryst organizers. For some reason, finding a restaurant that wasn't an hour's drive away was impossible, so we piled into the guest house dining room, had a quick chat, then beat a hasty retreat. By now I had applied my decades of catastrophic over education and activated the hot water system, so had a decent shower before going to sleep.<br /><br />My flight left in the mid afternoon of the following day. Robert took off for the Taj Mahal, but I packed up then took a car to Humayun's Tomb, built a couple of generations earlier and, in some sense, a prototype. The wild traffic sharpened slightly as my car clipped a motorbike! For a place where accidents are reasonably common, few riders wear helmets. Accidents are much less common than you would think, though. It's not unusual to see trucks, autorickshaws, cars, bikes, pedestrians, dogs, cows, and even amputees on wheeled skateboards all sharing the same highway.<br /><br />I arrived about an hour before the tour busses and hordes of people all trying to take exactly the same photo. The complex has a large Persian style garden, about 10 tombs in varying states of repair, and a never ending scheme of conservation and restoration. It must be difficult to do, since the original construction was never documented and even obfuscated. The centerpiece is the tomb of Humayun, which looks similar to the Taj Mahal, but made of red sandstone rather than marble, and was monumental in every sense of the word.<br /><img height="225" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/5pXGvi47tCXYj9aY0I3pBCYfNgapCMMx7lugXKzIgqIitBXu3kX1aZUep5Tjv5wTvJxLKQb8LEuUaeMIDvh548azl7Gfoy7dafZNCulBFsXkN5Rlz_MoS9bHJSyfpe-Wkk4hPoPR" width="400" /><br /><br />I headed back to the guest house, ate some lunch, then headed to the airport. There were two connecting flights to get to Trichy, with a layover in Chennai. As usual, the layover involved buses, passing back through security, navigating the airport without signs, and a boarding zone order of 1, 4, 3, then 2. All I'm asking for is door-to-door super hypersonic suborbital transportation. I don't see what's so hard about it. <br /><br />I got a nasty headache on the flight, but fortunately was well met at the airport and taken to a very nice hotel in Tiruchirappalli, where I dosed up on Malarone and Tylenol, then had an incredible mushroom dish called "kulcha" and bread. I washed some clothes again and had precisely zero difficulty falling asleep. <br /><br />The next morning my gracious hosts apologized and asked if I would wear long pants, since we were going to visit some local temples. The first one was Ranganathaswamy Temple in Srirangam, an ancient temple to Vishnu on an island near Tiruchirappalli. We cloaked our shoes and then walked in through the first of seven concentric gates and walls around the central deity. The complex contains about 20 towers, was mostly built about a thousand years ago, and has several cloisters and halls with thousands of monumental exquisitely carved granite columns. The tallest tower, completed in 1987 after 400 years of intermittent progress, is 73m tall. The gate beneath, which is part of the original structure, is so tall it has powerlines routed through it.<br /><img height="400" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/hbql-pgOtpNlvaZTjS7A0tytJYqSi6YFh0fgRXrUWIxmQLGILOhP3Fzalg6ryMOYQ6mz2wqANo1GSvnNwhkPh9S2yQ5SrRQTPUqGjgBJq5Bax0eIUqnObB-Nt8CAKoZB296oV7MR" width="225" /><br /><br />Following this we visited a butterfly park and an ancient water control feature, used to supply irrigation, before overheating and getting some lunch in the hotel. That afternoon, a different pair of students appeared to take me to the Rockfort temple, right in the middle of the city. This is actually a set of temples built around and inside a monolithic granite hill, with over 300 (mercifully shaded) carved stairs to get to the top. There was a great view over the surrounding area from the top, with a decent breeze and many brightly colored buildings. Once back at street level we went to a few different shops, full of all sorts of things I couldn't fit in my bag! That evening I once again skipped dinner to sleep, and did not regret it.<br /><img height="225" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/3pjvEHN4mbGvEu4WLTyVTXAgET7oLR3VkTu-wKzhm5qjDL2eN4ZopoY7NckBMq8lGSOnrm-S3yapulFhgaDHRmEjtxyqrbijTbNhrQFyxkg4wzb3M7vdIUH8F0TJ8Acxq4RZDbsf" width="400" /><br /><br />The following day I caught up with Robert Metcalfe at breakfast, then drove to Brihadisvara Temple, another famous, ancient temple (among hundreds!) in the area. This one is devoted primarily to Shiva, and is most famous for its giant gopuram, or tower, with an 80T monolithic globe on the 60m tall peak. Noone is quite sure how it was built, but it is believed the entire complex was completed in only seven years. The structure was built without arches, and I'm really impressed by how the lintels were built without (mostly) cracking. It manages to be both enormous without being overly oppressive. One other detail which stuck in my mind was that in Hindu temples, most deities are also depicted with their "mount" nearby. Shiva's mount is a bull, so there's an adjacent shrine containing a very large carved bull. Like the Lascaux paintings, this animal depiction is stylized and contains a compelling animal character, almost like movement. I generally don't buy arguments that ancients knew more technical information than we do - in particular claims that modern engineering couldn't reproduce, say, the pyramids are quite silly - but I am always impressed by the artistic finesse of ancient art right back to the earliest known examples.<br /><img height="225" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/XvAno96tZBYUA8KkoznUa4GJGX1WCLaz7IYzM4cnDGq0HrQjkU66VCcanccNLprKQUtJ0RKTvYSCTRdMxwhCMbIUvVIlGT0TGI6dz0UYWidE41wZgbJdGTeMJOblw7gjmYXZnjN0" width="400" /><br /><br />That afternoon, we drove to the main campus to look around, look for animals, meet people, check out the robot construction lab, and attend the opening ceremony. The highlight of the inauguration, for me, was a terrific talk by Dr BN Suresh, former director of ISRO's Vikram Sarabhai Space Center, who spoke about the Indian space program. I was also amused by someone videoing the ceremony from a drone, flying inside the auditorium. Back at the hotel I prepacked by bag, practiced the talk, and fell asleep again.<br /><img height="225" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/DHfmMhWDeY9vZ64Gizs80JZlPVJ_uGmvw0hfpGrsPz6YSMQUh_9eXwxZLZ04VHJhb5cglUvftj7edN4JZQlENRu4oR6QegXDhd14viTpoe5Q5JWEtIKiYhxmZyvPqsi06B2rrqAf" width="400" /><br /><br />The next day was already my last day in India. I had two breakfasts to smooth a logistical issue, then traveled to NIT Trichy. I was dressed, shaved, combed, and I had a busy schedule of talking to student journalists, a couple of classes of mostly mechanical engineering students (I learned a lot!) and then gave the talk in an capacity lecture hall. After the talk I took a lot of questions, took the obligatory photos (selfie production line), received some lovely gifts, and then returned to the hotel to eat, shower, and pack.<br /><br />All too soon I was stepping off India back into a plane for the first of four flights, over 36 hours, back to the USA. Once again, my grumpiness was well induced. I had lactose free cheese sandwiches. I had gate lounges with inscrutable whistling covers of insipid Andrew Lloyd Webber. I had bad air quality. I had numerous frustrating interactions with unhelpful uniformed bureaucratic loafers. I spent many, many hours in various lines waiting for nothing to happen. I went through layers of security to access elevators that went nowhere. <br /><br />And, as usual, I somehow ended up seated in a section of crazy people on the long haul flight. There was the guy playing games on full volume on his phone, and then setting alarms that would go off throughout the night, waking everyone except him. There was the usual croaking chorus of tubercular coughing types. There were the chronically uncoordinated who insisted on shaking every chair as they staggered endlessly up and down the aisles, when they didn't grab a handful of hair by accident. There were the trash hoarders who somehow filled the underseat space with a mixture of half crushed water bottles, used wet wipes, unlabeled medicinal herb containers, and sputum. But the piece-de-resistance was undoubtedly the domino of people in my row who, as soon as I got up to go the toilet, immediately annexed my seat and fell into an unrousable horizontal sleep. And, when they got up, the next one in line annexed all three seats, same deal. I ended up standing by the exit door for about 5 hours, reading and looking out the window for polar bears. <br /><br />One person sitting next to me, after trying to treat their randomly targeted endless coughing and strategic sleep-destroying poking with some inscrutable mix of tea leaves, which mostly ended up on me, asked about an hour into the flight "Are we nearly there?" On arrival, 16 hours later, they asked if I would call their spouse to let them know we'd landed, but it transpired they didn't know their phone number. They always find me! How do they find me?<br /><br />The plane came down into LA, miraculously smog-less after a week of rain, I headed for the exit, and miracle of miracles one of the eight security screens ("Please remove your cash, shirt, belt, laptop, shoes, loose change, pancreas, IN THAT ORDER") in Abu Dhabi was pre-immigration, so they let us right out into the airport. I was home after only 40 minutes of terrifying driving. <br /><br />India! What an amazing place! I feel like I could spend a lifetime in a single state and still not scratch the surface.</div>
Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-55268354262486846492018-03-05T04:59:00.001+11:002018-03-05T14:53:57.245+11:00Footprints/Tryst/Pragyan speech transcript<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-69aa72ba-f227-1092-90e1-89d16dcfd2af" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In late February-early March, many Indian universities hold student-organized technical festivals, and in 2018 I was fortunate to be invited to speak at three of them: Footprints at MSU Baroda, Tryst at IIT Delhi, and Pragyan at NIT Trichy. The talks I gave had about 70% commonality and will eventually be uploaded to YouTube. Below, then, is a "final version" with a mix of local material.</span></span><b id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-69aa72ba-f227-1092-90e1-89d16dcfd2af" style="font-weight: normal;"></b><br />
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<b id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-69aa72ba-f227-1092-90e1-89d16dcfd2af" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(Don't speak too fast.)</span></b></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Sound check! Could the people in the back row please wave?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Vadodara: </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Gujarati - Kem cho</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Marathi - Sub prabat</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Hindi - Namaskaar </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Delhi: </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Hindi - Namaskaar</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Urdu - Assalamu alaikum </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Punjabi - Sat sri akaal</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Tiruchirappalli: </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Tamil - Vaṇakkam, eppidi irkreenga</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">G'day.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I am humbled and privileged to be present among such brilliant people, and to be given the opportunity to share some thoughts. Today I am going to talk about my experiences developing technology including the Hyperloop and how that meshes with a yet grander scheme - the bold, experimental invention of an improved, more just world enabled by innovation. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">If I have not yet had the pleasure of meeting you one on one, my name is Casey Handmer. Is anyone here on Quora? Excellent.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I was born and raised in Australia where, like you, I was attracted at an early age to the purity and truth of scientific exploration. I didn't really have access to scientific equipment or technical libraries until early adulthood, so I gravitated towards theoretical and mathematical studies. Later in life, I discovered many other mathematicians, like Ramanujan, who had taken a similar path, albeit much more brilliantly than I. Indeed, the experience of some intellectual isolation and technical frustration is known to have inspired the ancient greek mathematician Archimedes, responsible for very early treatments of calculus and also super weapons. Aren't we lucky to live in a place and time where it is possible to have colleagues! Isn't it great to enjoy the company of like-minded people?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I completed my undergraduate degree at the University of Sydney. Sydney is an incredible city on the edge of the world, and I've always felt fortunate to be able to call it home. But in 2010, it was necessary to find the toughest PhD I could, so I applied to numerous programs in the US. I was rejected from two thirds of them, including MIT and Stanford, but someone at Caltech admitted me and so, within a year of discovering that Caltech was even a place, I had moved there. Big Bang Theory wasn't a thing back then. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">At Caltech, I switched fields again and performed research into gravitational waves as part of the broader LIGO effort that culminated in detection in 2015, the year I graduated, and a Nobel Prize last year. To be clear, my doctoral work had nothing to do with the detection or Nobel Prize. I did meet my wife at a party at Kip Thorne's house, though. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Actually, this seems like a good time to talk about gravitational waves, the subject of the most recent Nobel physics prize. As you know, our sun is a star like the hundred billion stars in our galaxy, which is one of the hundred million galaxies in the observable universe. Our sun burns hydrogen, which mostly formed during the big bang. When stars get old, they exhaust their fuel and puff up into red giants, which will one day consume the Earth. After that, the glowing white hot remnant becomes a white dwarf star. About a century ago the Indian mathematician and physicist Chandrasekhar computed that if a white dwarf weighed more than 1.44 times the mass of our sun, it would collapse to form a neutron star. Neutron stars are so dense that a single teaspoon would weigh as much as the hill upon which the Rockfort temple is built. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It turns out that if a neutron star weighs more than 1.8 or 1.9 times more than our sun, it too will collapse further into a black hole. Who here has seen Interstellar? The black hole in that was called Gargantua, and at one hundred million times the mass of the sun, it is similar in size to the black hole at the center of the Milky Way. We know of black holes that weigh almost a thousand times as much. But the LIGO detection was focused on black holes that weigh about as much as our sun. Imagine a pair of such black holes. Each has an event horizon a few kilometers across, about the size of this campus. Each is separated by a few tens of kilometers, about the distance from here to the airport. They orbit each other at nearly the speed of light, emitting energy and angular momentum in the form of gravitational waves, spiraling inwards. They orbit so fast, they complete hundreds or orbits a second, which means that gravitational waves, if transformed into sound waves, are in the human auditory range. They sound like this.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">*Whoop*</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">And you might be surprised that at the end of that long process of inspiral and collision there is no final gigantic crash. In their final moment as separate black holes, each event horizon stretches out like two elephants high fiving with their trunks and then merge, all in about a thousandth of a second. That final gigantic crash occurs but the black hole event horizon grows and swallows almost all of it before it can escape. They swallow even their final scream. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The gravitational waves propagate outward through the universe at the speed of light forever, eventually passing through the Earth. When they do so, they stretch and squeeze the Earth by about the width of a hydrogen atom, which is significantly less that the deformation induced by stepping here to my left. But the LIGO detectors, one of which I think will soon be built in India, are able to filter out the noise and detect these incredible events. So, that's gravitational waves. I hope you were paying attention. There will be a short quiz next period.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I went to Caltech to learn about physics, as in the rules of the universe. What I was not expecting was to learn about physics, as in the way humans go about discovering, the rules of the universe. At 23 I was pretty sure that academia was a unique and privileged calling, and exempt from the mundane issues that plague any other attempt to get large numbers of people moving in the same direction! Well I have been wrong about many things, and I was wrong about that too! Management is non trivial and a skill that must be learned. The "academy" is not just a building that contains ideas. It also contains people.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">By the time I finished the PhD, I had seen enough of the way that research works in the US to decide that I would rather spend my time contributing to the wellbeing of humanity in a more direct way. In 2013, Elon Musk and his team put together the "Hyperloop Alpha White Paper" technical document discussing his idea for a high speed surface transportation system that combines the speed of airlines and the convenience of cars, while outcompeting high speed rail. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">As you know, the idea behind hyperloop is to adapt the concept of high speed maglevs and reduce air resistance by operating inside a vacuum tube. The advantage of the scheme is that the vehicle does not have to carry all its fuel, like a jet, it only has to carry the cargo, and can operate more efficiently on a given route.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I thought the document was pretty interesting, though even in 2013 I knew it was a long way from being technically complete. In particular, I was worried about how to route the tube over mountains. This geographic constraint was dramatically illustrated by the success of the Burma airlift, or "The Hump," over the Himalaya mountains in 1942. While obviously some parts of the world, like the Ganges plain, are relatively smooth, other parts, like the Tibetan plateau, are incredibly rough. How fast can vehicles travel while being close enough to the surface to avoid miraculous feats of civil engineering?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">2013 was about the time that gradually made an important transition in academic life. If you haven't already encountered this, you will soon. Up until this point, my preoccupation had been with getting 100% on every exam, and thus demonstrating total mastery of the sum total of human knowledge in my discipline. But at some point, you reach the edge of the known and emerge into an area where there are no known solutions, and sometimes even the problems are very poorly defined. In such a case, 0% is the default grade, so if you spend a month or a year or 10 years on a problem and raise the state of knowledge to 1%, that is a huge improvement. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Likewise, I was tiring of the perception, probably developed while being raised in Australia, that technology and engineering is done by other people, and that if I wait long enough, cool stuff will eventually come to me. This is surprisingly common - how many otherwise competent and well-resourced people are waiting around for Elon Musk to take some time out of his busy schedule and solve their problem for them? </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So I didn't need anyone's permission to run the calculations myself. Many cities are built near or between mountains, and my home town of Los Angeles is no exception. I wrote some basic code to try to optimize a route over the mountains. Today, four years later, I still use a descendent of that code to find terrain-optimal routes.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">And, in the meantime, all kinds of adventures occurred! On the back of that analysis I was hired, initially as an intern, at Hyperloop One in September 2015. If you've followed the news, you know that we've had a lot of excitement since then. It's certainly helped me learn a lot more about how large scale organizations with a diverse range of personalities, experiences, and skills can still work together to accomplish a common goal. I suppose the act of government is preoccupied with similar concerns though on a yet much larger scale.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">My primary responsibility at Hyperloop One was development of the devloop tech demonstrator levitation system. Most of the devloop systems were more conventional and had large teams of experts already hard at work. But we were trialing a few new kinds of levitation system and needed someone who could do the difficult quantitative analysis. And, by some crazy chance, I happened to walk through the door that very same day. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Step one was to get a handle on the underlying physics - electromagnetism, bulk currents, induction, and other stuff only just beyond a second year level. Step two, and for me the more unfamiliar step, was to interface with other teams, understand requirements, and get channels of communication up and running. This was followed by preliminary and more detailed design. After design, it was time to go back to analysis and thoroughly characterize theoretical performance. This is a good start, but since we couldn't test the levitation system before the first flight, we needed multiple lines of reasoning to prove it would work before we finally pushed the big shiny red button.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So I started again from scratch, this time using finite element analysis methods. On the first try, the simulation disagreed with the analytic result by more than a factor of two. This would be great in astronomy, but not great for a flight system. We had about six weeks to sort it out, so over the next six weeks, we identified about half a dozen errors, mostly sneaky ones hiding in the simulation system, and harmonized the results. Then we moved on to new projects while the downstream processes of fabrication and assembly turned our dreams to reality.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Within a year of starting out, the finished vehicle was sitting in the loading dock, its assembly getting one last quality check, before putting it on a truck and moving it to the test site in the desert about four hours drive away. The test technicians loaded it into the tube and, like everyone else on the team, I held my breath and hoped that, if something horrible went wrong, it would at least be someone else's part. But it worked. The test pod flew down the test track, and over the coming weeks, the team pushed the speed up to 107m/s, which is about 380km/h. This is the fastest hyperloop demo yet performed. We could have gone much faster, but we were running out of track!</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Despite some setbacks, a few misunderstandings, and the constant stream of pessimism in the press, our team had taken a vision from imagination into the real world, and in only a couple of years. It is easier to criticise than to compliment. It is easier to destroy than build. So, it is always a struggle to innovate, to fail, and to try again, and again, and again, and eventually either succeed or die of old age. But it is worth it.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Enough about me. This is my first visit to your city, and I already can't wait to come back. I'm always happy to visit India, I'm not sure why. People told me the traffic would be bad, but honestly it's more scary in Los Angeles. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(MSU Baroda)</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I arrived in Vadodara the day before yesterday and the student organizers have just been terrific. I used to participate in student organizations but I've never seen anything like this! At the inauguration yesterday it was great to hear about the beginnings of the Footprints festival, now in its 18th year and going strong. Footprints are such a powerful metaphor for deliberate progress. </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="gmail-kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="gmail-kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">And Laxmi's Vilas Palace! To be honest, I had no idea what to expect here in Vadodara, but isn't it amazing to have such heritage and world-famous architecture in your backyard? I walked there. </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="gmail-kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="gmail-kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">There is one other thing I saw that I would like to comment on. Yesterday I visited the Mechanical Engineering department. Who here is studying MechE? When noone was looking I peeked into the Heat Engines Laboratory because I saw the aeroplane engine and I like planes. And then, tucked against the wall, I saw the machine shop tools, lathes, mills, saws, and so on. They were remarkable for me in two ways - and I've seen a lot of workshops. They are the oldest looking tools I've ever seen. Older than stuff I've seen in a museum! But, more importantly, they are the best-cared for looking tools I've ever seen. As you know, a half hour of carelessness on any tool can destroy it, and I think it's a great testament to the respect I've seen here for technology that these tools have trained maybe five generations of expert machinists and engineers, and could easily train another five. Sorry, I'm getting a bit emotional here. Technology is the gift we produce for the future, and love for technology is, along with aerodynamics, the thing that keeps planes in the air, factories working, and the rest of us clothed and fed. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(IIT Delhi)</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I arrived in Delhi late last night and stayed here on campus. Isn't it a beautiful place you have here to work. I walked through the gardens in the east part of the campus and encountered *herds* of peacocks who were friends with the local cats. I didn't even know peacocks could fly. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Walking through IIT Delhi, it seems clear to me that this is a very prestigious, very well resourced, very honorable, and very rigorous school. We are lucky to be the beneficiaries of such heritage, it will help us and our careers for the rest of our lives. I like to think about ways that I can take my good luck and pay it forward, to help to enrich this generous and powerful tradition. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(NIT Trichy)</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I arrived in Trichy the day before yesterday and I've had a great time exploring this ancient city. At MSU Baroda, they assigned one student to accompany me and help out, at IIT Delhi they left me to my own devices, but here it seems all the organizing students take it in turns to hang out with us guest lecturers, presumably so you still get a chance to enjoy this great festival! </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I have many Indian friends in the states, and when I mentioned I was going to Trichy, they said that it was famous for its temples. Well I had no idea what to expect, and then you took me to see Sri Rangam and Thanjavur. I have to admit they both kind of blew my mind. What I really liked was the juxtaposition of the eternal and the ephemeral. I walked through a gallery of ancient granite pillars, essentially unchanged since its building more than a thousand years ago. And then a cute toddler stared at me and offered me a bite of their snack - a singular moment, swamped immediately by the ongoing hustle and bustle. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I've enjoyed the sunny weather, which reminds me of home in California, and the cooling breezes, which we could do with more of! And finally, I got a chance to walk around the campus yesterday evening before the inauguration and check out all the new buildings and my favorite, the robot development lab. I've never seen so many robots being built so close to each other, it was practically a robot nursery!</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Who remembers the launch of the SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket two weeks ago? How good was that? StarMan is going to Mars! Let's talk about space for a bit, then move onto technology more generally. If you were at the inauguration last night, I have to warn you that Dr BN Suresh (former director of ISRO launch site) stole all my best lines, but I'll do what I can. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">71 countries have space programs. Only six of them have the ability to build, launch, and operate robotic satellites and deep space probes. Those countries are China, Europe, which isn't even a country, Japan, Russia, USA, and of course India. Australia has more kangaroos than any other country, but we do not have a space program. Arguably, North Korea has better space technology than Australia. I may live long enough to see Australia get a space program, but I would have to be very lucky indeed to see one anywhere near as good at India's!</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I think it's a big deal that India has such an excellent space program. In 2014 I had the pleasure of meeting Dr Koppollil Radhakrishnan when he visited Caltech, during his tenure as the director of ISRO, the Indian space agency. He was as aware as we all are that of the six countries that do space robots, India is arguably the poorest. From time to time, we hear criticism of space exploration on the grounds that it's expensive and there is no shortage of worthy uses for money here on Earth. Dr Radhakrishnan explained that India's space program is largely focused on Earth observation, and that the unique insights produced by the "eyes in the sky" help India predict, understand, and cope with natural disasters, unpredictable harvests and, more pressingly, climate change. In other words, the question is not "How can India afford space?" The question is "How can India not afford space?" How can we all not afford space?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">To this I want to add that the expense of a space program is small compared to other government programs of similar technical complexity, which are usually oriented toward secret weapons development. Furthermore, money spent on space technology isn't just put in a gigantic pile and burned - it employs us. Ten or hundreds of thousands of highly trained technical experts whose knowledge and abilities build wealth - the fundamental mechanism for alleviating poverty through technology.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">With that out of the way, let's talk about why the Falcon Heavy launch, and space more generally, is so exciting. ISRO has a deep space robot, the Mars Orbiter Mission, or Mangalyaan, which I just discovered is on the new 2000 rupee note. India is the fourth nation to send a probe to Mars. It is also the first to succeed on the first try! This is a big deal. Mars' hobby is eating robots for breakfast. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">While rather tiny compared to NASA's rovers, I think Mangalyaan is also very cute! Yes, robots can be cute. In fact, my favourite photo of Mars was taken by the Mars Orbiter Mission last year. It shows the planet about ¾ full, with clouds, ice, dust storms, mountains, craters, and canyons all visible. This volcano, Elysium Mons, is so tiny noone ever talks about it. It's twice as tall as Everest. This is Olympus Mons, which is three times as tall as Everest, and about as wide as India. This is Gale Crater, where NASA's latest rover lives. Even better, there is a tiny black speck to one side - the silhouette of a moon in front of this world!</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(Credit: ISRO)</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Today, there are 7.6 billion humans on Earth, of which 1.3 billion are in India, almost a whole world in itself! Perhaps 100 billion humans have ever existed. Let me be perfectly clear, there is no physical way that any but the tiniest fraction of today's 7.6 billion will ever fly to space. To this day, 315 rocket launches have flown humans to space. In total, 536 people have been launched into space, some of them up to eight times, which seems excessive. And only twelve of those have walked on another world, the moon. Of those twelve, only five are still alive - it happened a long time ago.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Even if all of our dreams, and all of Elon Musk's dreams come true, maybe one in ten thousand humans will ever go to Mars. Maybe only one in a million. Correspondingly, most of our concern and technological effort must address the reality that humans must keep Earth habitable. But while billions will remain, perhaps some will go to build another city, another branch of humanity on other worlds. Making life multiplanetary is a worthy challenge and, along with preventing our own extinction, probably the most important evolutionary milestone since oxygen breathing life first evolved. I see no reason why India could not contribute its proven expertise and spirit to this enterprise!</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I want to tell one more story about the very real dangers of apparently politically neutral technology. This story is a bit of a downer, but I chose it because it has an important point. Many technical people like to think of themselves as politically neutral, or apolitical. Afterall, a plane or a valve or a computer program is an idea that exists independent of ideology, except perhaps the basic philosophy of empiricism. In particular, no-one could describe a tool like a power drill as having a political party affiliation! How preposterous. Yet this attitude is not accidental. It is very unusual to find an academic mentor in the sciences who is even prepared to admit that they have political views, let alone specify what they might be. Why? I can understand why public servants employed by taxpayer money would be careful to avoid accusations of partisanship. Political policy does materially affect the wellbeing of our fellow humans, so there is something here that's worth thinking about.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In about 2010, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, started up a program known as Nexus 7. DARPA, founded in 1958, is a secretive US agency whose mission is, to paraphrase, "no surprises." That is, anticipate and develop secret technology so that, in the event of a future world war, the US could not be blindsided by a secret weapon. Many of DARPA's inventions have subsequently made it into public view, including the internet, street view, graphical operating systems, GPS, voice recognition, holographic displays, TOR, and stealth technology. To be clear, I only know about this project through reading newspaper articles!</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">At this time DARPA, under the leadership of Regina Dugan, was aggressively pursuing academic partnerships to modernize its outlook in machine learning, and wanted to find ways to help fight and ultimately end the war in Afghanistan. Some of my colleagues at Caltech, motivated by pacifism, signed up to go to Afghanistan and help develop these projects. One of them was intended to try to understand the flows of money. In particular, variations in prices of food seemed to predict local unrest. If you can predict unrest, you can prevent it, and that begins the process of trying to break the cycle of violence that has persisted in some of these places for generations. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Further, perhaps half a dozen bomb makers producing roadside IEDs were obviously being paid somehow. But cash transactions are hard to track in a cash-based economy with electronic espionage. In essence, there are a huge number of unknowns and a few constraints. Traditionally, solving this linear algebra problem would use least-squares, since in engineering this helps to minimize the energy. But in this particular problem, applying least squares doesn't work because it would assign small payments by nearly every citizen to nearly every other citizen - something that doesn't occur in reality. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The insight was the development of compressed, or sparse, sensing, now used for all kinds of things, including image enhancement in every phone camera. Most people never interact financially with most other people. Take the same data and close it with the L1 norm rather than the L2 norm, and a remarkably accurate picture of the missing information emerged. This project was deemed successful, the people I knew rotated off the project and resumed their PhD work in the US. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Ultimately unrelated extrinsic factors led to the loss of Jalalabad and an escalation of violence, despite best efforts to solve it. Sometimes despite perfect moves you still lose the game. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Fast forward a few years. Although my former colleagues have long left, the projects continued to be developed, and related algorithms were applied to mobile network data. Again, most people only routinely call or text a handful of other people, so analysing the network topology can help determine the identity of the users of various mobile phones, even if their names weren't known or confirmed through more traditional James Bond-style spying. For reasons I don't know, this method, which worked quite well for financial data, was pitched as being a terrorist-finding tool with mobile data, despite a lack, to put it mildly, of peer review. The US forces proceeded to drone a bunch of phones, and the people standing near them, in Pakistan and Afghanistan that had "terrorist patterns of use." This is the sad part. It turns out that there are other user profiles who also have sporadic bursts of activity calling dozens of people: Wedding planners. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This story isn't intended to discourage technical innovation, because there's always a chance that something you touch will end up being used to hurt someone, and most people won't get any sort of say in how their widget is deployed after they deliver it. It's merely to illustrate that even the lowest ranked engineer does get a say in the future they are building, as they build it. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">For the last part of this talk, I would like to zoom out and take a broader view of technical efforts in general. When we look at the gradual, incremental achievements of the past, the fruitless careers, the backwards steps in progress, it is easy to become discouraged. How can I be sure that what I'm devoting time and effort to will have any lasting effect? Well, the short answer is that on a long enough time scale, everything averages out to zero, even for Elon Musk or Steve Jobs. This can seem a bit depressing.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(Credit: Wikipedia)</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">But I had a thought yesterday, when I visited the Thanjavur temple. Consider the gopuram, that 80 tonne monolith at the top of the tall tower, and our confusion and uncertainty about how the builders put it there, a thousand years ago. There will, inevitably, come a time when our knowledge, identities, and methods are just as mysterious to people then as the builders of Thanjavur are to us today. But consider the present day. If the builders of Thanjavur could build all that in only seven years, what can we, with our internet, mechanization, computers, and science build in seven years? </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Further, as far as we know, humans are the only entities in the universe capable of self contemplation and progress through technology. And we are fortunate to live in an era where we are already beneficiaries of so much painstaking progress. We can live long, peaceful lives relatively free of deprivation and pain. What I am trying to say is that there is an art, a performance art, to practicing science and living a technically contributive life. This is optimism in practice. A belief that our children will inherit a better world, and a belief that it's worthwhile to expend our blood, sweat, and tears to ensure that we leave this world better than we found it.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So why be technical at all? Why not let other people invent cool stuff? I will tell you a secret. Technically literate people have a special advantage. Through the practice of technology, we actually have a magical power, the ability to imagine a better future, and then to bring the rest of humanity forward with us. In fact, you can think of technical ability as a special kind of democratic power, a power that naturally comes with a level of responsibility. In addition to the vote you cast every few years for your own government, every code commit, every drawing release, is another vote for a particular type of future. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In the US, and Australia, and maybe in India, there is an unaccountable and irrational nostalgia for a simpler time back in the distant, and imaginary, past. Back when things were supposedly simpler and life was slower and we all lived healthy agrarian or even hunter-gatherer lives. Well if you've ever had a toothache you know just how shallow this romantic fantasy is. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In 2018, the human species faces all kinds of truly daunting challenges. These include, but are not limited to, resource depletion, climate change, poverty and greed, food security, internet security, energy security. Regressing to an agrarian way of life is not an option. Mass starvation is not an option. Zombie fantasies are not an option. Mass death is not an option. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The only way forward is up, meaning emancipation through technology. We need every brain working on these problems. Not just US brains, or Australian brains, or Indian brains. Not only white brains, male brains, christian brains, or rich brains. And not just physicist or software brains. We need them all. I challenge each and every one of you to think about how much more we can all do. What we can do to promote the diversity we desperately need to transcend the human challenges of the 21st century. There is no one way to be a scientist, engineer, or technician. In particular, please don't try to duplicate my poor example and numerous career mistakes! There are an infinite number of paths to technical enlightenment.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Finally, what can we look forward to in 2050, now only 32 years away? Here are some things I would personally like to see. This is in some sense a fantasy, but it's not forbidden by the laws of physics. I feel they are very achievable.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Zero humans living in poverty. A sufficiency and dignity for all.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">And yet, all humans treading lightly on this one Earth we share.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Ecologically conservative and restorative industry. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Renewable, clean energy and recycled resources.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Zero humans dying in war.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Zero humans suffering oppression or injustice. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Security, safety, and freedom on the internet. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Access to affordable, efficient mass transportation. Shoutout to hyperloop!</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Humans living and working in space, on the moon, and on Mars.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Things we haven't even dared to dream of yet.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It's not enough to wish for these things. As technical people, it is our responsibility to build this future. We can, and we must, do everything we can to see these better futures brought about. I look forward to seeing you there!</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">***</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="gmail-kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="gmail-kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Alright, let's move to some questions. I want to get through as many as possible, so please keep them short.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I am sorry if we didn't get to your question. Ask me on Quora or Twitter? Thank you!</span></div>
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Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-89932413075447513062018-02-21T11:26:00.001+11:002018-03-06T11:47:57.597+11:00Science fiction short story - That Final Moment<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I wrote this in 2016 and finally decided to publish it on this blog. It was my first written foray into the mechanics of deep space industrialization. <br /><br /><br />THAT FINAL MOMENT<br />by Casey Handmer<br /><br />"I am Sita." She could write a monologue of thoughts, organized by each activity at the moment of ideation. Identity and thresholds seemed to go together. She ran the flow check necessary to use the Mars surface airlock safely. Open valves to dump lock atmosphere into the air processor. Close valves. Check pressure on both gauges. Check the spacesuit was, in fact, not pajamas. Well sealed. Comms, temperatures, smell, pressure holding. Ears didn't pop--always a good sign. <br /><br />She reached for the external door locking wheel and put her weight behind the mechanism. It ran smoothly enough. With practiced motion the door unlocked, opened inwards. A tiny puff of dust, cut by slanting rays of faded sun. She stepped through the narrow portal, like a submarine bulkhead door. Like a birth canal, no wider than it had to be, at least for people. Their machines birthed through a different door.<br /><br />Vivid memories of her former life on submarines surfaced and just as suddenly faded into the depths. Between this outpost and those underwater islands of humanity, there was something fundamentally insular about society. Sita was here, now. She stretched towards the open sky for now there was no roof over her head. A few light steps over the trampled ground and, with intake of breath, a staring at, an acknowledgment of the horizon. If a problem is spherical, it is hard to see all of it at once.<br /><br /> Sita's problem was Mars. The outpost behind her looked no more worn than it actually was. Sita had accepted the mission with eagerness. Go to Mars, live there until something breaks beyond repair, then bail out. If you could. Sita had not flown with the exploration missions. She had waited on Earth and then flown with the outpost. She herself had explained it many times. "How do you solve the problem of machines eventually breaking more frequently than they can be fixed?" On Earth, all machines would eventually be retired, but on Mars, the very air was produced by a machine. <br /><br />Therefore, an outpost on a dusty plain where humans lived indefinitely, with resupplies of parts and sometimes crew, every other year. Sita and a few others lived in this experiment. Or the experiment lived in them, since the blood and toil that kept the concern operational was the sheer dexterity of human ingenuity, their own capacity for biological regeneration, far better than any machine, and occasionally a liberal dose of the will to not-die-that-day.<br /><br /> And, she mused, a gigantic nuclear reactor. Every machine, every light, every pump, every vehicle, every robot--they all needed power, and their nuclear reactors provided it. She could see a heat shimmer beyond a nearby hill where they operated and quietly irradiated the surrounding area. Heaven help them if it ever broke down! <br /><br /> She scuffed the ground. How many years ago had they trenched the ground here, laid the power cables deep enough that frost creep and spring blow and wheels couldn't damage them? That tractor had been trouble from the start. Like every other machine, they could and did completely disassemble it with basic tools they had in their inflatable workshop. But, like nearly everything else they had back then, it had broken too frequently to be worth repairing.<br /><br />Sita had dragged it out to the boneyard of orphaned machinery, a place of sculptures, metaphorical monuments to industrial ambition and too much clever complexity. There, with dozens of other unloved machines left by parents too busy to keep them alive, they waited only for oblivion. Which was worse? Gradually harvested for scrap, whittled away to nothing, and yet pieces living on as parts of other, more valued equipment? Or forever neglected, until sun and sand and aeons abraded the paint, wore away the shell, the chassis, and scattered every molecule in a wide, flat, glittery sand dune that ever so gradually slunk downwind from the outpost in shame?<br /><br /> Of course, Sita reflected, being recycled in some sense only delayed the inevitable for obsolete machinery. And indeed, explorers had passed, their bodies unretrieved, sometimes. Caught out at night, perhaps, and frozen to death. Or fallen and breached their suit. Or broken bones. Or poisoned by bad air. Or burned. So many abrupt paths to the end. <br /><br /> Sita had found one once. Kind eyes in his frozen, perfectly preserved face stared up through his wind abraded helmet, right into the void. Right into Sita's own black eyes. His peaceful expression reflected none of the ambition that must have driven him to Mars, to die out here alone. Her suit's profile, a hemispherical head with burning flashlight eyes, reflected in the glass of the deceased. The yet living and the dead superimposed in imago, like one hand covering the other. They placed him in the burial ground, opposite the boneyard and obscured beneath the crumbled surface. <br /><br /> Sita never found the other bodies. In her mind, they gradually transmuted from cogito ergo sum insularity to landscape. Wouldn't they all eventually find themselves blasted to smithereens by the passage of time, condemned to wander the northern latitudes by seasonal winds? Perhaps, given the risk of explosive decompression, that was why thoughts of identity and more importantly its willful continuation pervaded during airlock operation. <br /><br /> Sita's mind and eyes wandered the landscape as she stared into the horizon. Their outpost was spread out over a large area, a perfect island of solitude within a world that was, for now at least, empty. Positioned in a broad valley between distant ranges, their faded peaks in the distance. A tiny speck, a blemish, precarious in a nonsense landscape that told a garbled saga of dust and ice and wind and countless ancient impacts. <br /><br /> Her booted heel scratched at the ground as she turned to take in the view. She felt the sun's weak warmth through her pressurized carapace, her inner reptile took a second breath. In the distance, beyond the greenhouse, beyond the burial ground, she spied their return vehicle. The rocket sat there, inert, waiting to take them back to Earth. It had waited a decade. Four times, Earth had swung across the sky, daring them to cease their foolishness and fly home. Four times, they had duly performed the procedures to wake the sleeping behemoth and prepare it, just in case. Four times, Earth had passed out of range, its pale blue dot fading amongst the rest of the stars, and their loyal rocket had been put back to sleep. Sita wondered if the rocket could tell that Earth was no longer really home. That morning, something had changed. Everything had changed.<br /><br />Sita felt she could have been happier. Against the odds, that same morning her mission had been deemed successful, by the squints up on the big world. Her team had proven the design methodology that could keep them alive indefinitely. Now, humans could come. Humans would come. First by the dozens, then the hundreds, then the thousands. An unstoppable rain of humanity from the sky. And her maintenance protocols would keep them alive, most of them, while they built their mines and refineries and foundries and factories and farms and cities, until humans could live on Mars without continuous resupply voyages from Earth. <br /><br /> Industrial autarky. Involuntary industrial autarky, necessitated by the hundred million miles of space between the nearest money and her. At least until someone made a warp drive or something. Then people would come by the million. Sita felt numb at the prospect. For a decade, just her and a handful of others under the Martian sky. Long rover traverses, endless testing, breaking, and repairing. Blue dawns to red days to blue dusks to black nights. Nothing but a planet and a mind, her mind, in it. Building Field Camp 18 in the next valley, confirming the aquifer. Building out a farm, growing food. A lifetime of learning and building and fixing and learning all over again.<br /><br />They had one hundred days left. A message from the pale blue dot, confirming launch after thundering launch sending cargo and passengers to Mars. One hundred more days of relative solitude, before the new Martian hordes landed at the field camp aquifer, unfurled a gigantic tent over the barren plain and made the frozen desert bloom. There would be so many new faces. What does a face even look like? From the outside? <br /><br /> Sita didn't have to wait around to find out. There were still tasks to complete, systems to check, failures to diagnose, procedures to document. And Sita still had one hundred days of solitude to tread the rocks beneath her feet. Some were dark, scattered, their faces faceted and scored by wind. Some were rounded, perhaps some ancient alluvial disaggregate. And beneath them all, more rocks. Rocks on rocks, all the way down, enough rocks to hold a person to the planet's surface with a gentle, forgiving force. Sita could jump right over a rover in the three-eighths gravity. Not such a good idea, she thought as she eyed the dozens of patches holding her pressure suit together. It would be thought exceptionally bad form to leave the ranks of the living just before things got really interesting.<br /><br /> Sita stared beyond the return vehicle, right out along the almost featureless plain until the horizon's pastel browns and reds smeared ground right into sky. The horizon on this tiny world was never that far away. She could walk over it before lunch, find the outpost completely out of view. She could even make it back without running out of air, probably. Her helmet's glass fogged slightly with each breath. It was never warm outside. She checked her gas and power levels, then sat down on what had once been a voice command mainframe interface, its little silicon brain zapped by a cosmic ray. It had been a slow death, rambling ceaselessly in idiomatic Esperanto while Sita attempted repair before it, too, succumbed. Now it was a bench outside the airlock. <br /><br /> Sita leaned back and looked up towards the zenith, where the sky is always white. Why does the universe contain introspection? Why so little? Why at all? Her eyes looked through a few inches of air, a millimeter of polycarbonate visor, the pitifully thin Martian atmosphere, and then infinite space, where the very first photons were stretched beyond the limits of human eyes. If you look far enough in any direction the view is deepest red. <br /><br /> Metal robot oblivion dust is probably more glittery than the scoured remains of dead Martian explorers. Sita wondered how glittery she'd end up. If she lived long enough for the new city to get its biosphere up and running she'd request they recycle her remains. Nitrogenase and tyrosine are hard enough to come by without dumping them onto the frozen, ultraviolet blasted surface. But how was being eaten by worms any different from her recycling parts of broken machines? Were not humans machines themselves? Thinking, feeling, self-repairing and optionally self-replicating machines, but machines nonetheless?<br /><br /> Sita could cut off her oxygen supply with trivial ease. She could purge her suit's fuel right into the dirt. There would always be new ways to die a pointless death on Mars. But nothing could stop the new ships bringing new people to their new world. Sita's mission had shown that humans could live on more than one planet. Her identity was now part of the tapestry of human destiny. Something to mull over.<br /><br /> Sita stared at the sky and remembered the site as it was before they had built the outpost. She liked its design, a central hab connected to a variety of satellite structures by cylindrical tunnels. Against the odds, a tiny patch of human-habitable volume in an unlikely corner of the universe. Her project, her refuge, her home, her triumph. As much as she empathized with her ragtag family of machines, only flesh and blood could rebraid itself into humanity's raging torrent. More than her physical constituents would survive her passing. The contribution of her life's labor to the pool of human achievement might even someday enable her to find meaning despite the inevitability of both death and self pity.<br /><br />Sita once more looked into the distance, where together they would all build their new city. In her mind's eye she saw their arrival on Mars. They would come, just as the previous cargo resupply missions had come. One by one the ships streaked across the sky. They came as a bright dot, then an expanding fireball, each brighter than the sun. Then the crack and jolt of the sonic boom, the roar of engines felt through her feet. The sun careened off the panels of each ship as they hovered, descending suspended on point-like engine glows and fat columns of dark, rushing smoke. And when the last of the ships had landed, their engines cooling but their effervescent contents not yet disgorged, Sita alone would savor that final moment of silence.</div>
Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-16128867390383867942018-02-08T18:35:00.001+11:002018-02-13T05:20:28.027+11:00Falcon Heavy and the era of post-scarcity heavy lift launch<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Yesterday (February 6 2018), SpaceX successfully launched the Falcon Heavy rocket. </div>
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This rocket, first publicly announced in 2011, had been a dream for so long I almost could not believe it was only a week away. Then a day. Then an hour. At the moment of lift off, 30 colleagues and I were crammed in a tiny conference room around a laptop with tinny speakers. Several of us had worked on this particular vehicle over its protracted development. You could hear a pin drop. </div>
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And then the 27 Merlin engines roared to life. It flew to space. It staged successfully. It landed two boosters on the ground, and narrowly missed the hat trick. The upper stage flew a whimsical payload of space suit, star man, and Tesla Roadster around the world (and over Australia) once before firing for a third and last time over its home in LA, boosting it away from Earth toward the orbit of Mars. It will orbit in empty space for many thousands of years.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhif1UrHyKb24PvkIcNQNHBNNaTVY-4t0Plko_ikj_wZnoBnBgHqb_pgEntnyphwTyk6Nk-0uhdyZMLoekspKOgkxz5xJZ3jeO7dneAQPTuEw5kYI-Xye-9tVMidANOvieayZtngugaP0s/s1600/image-757859.png"><img alt="" border="0" height="218" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6520084016666377634" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhif1UrHyKb24PvkIcNQNHBNNaTVY-4t0Plko_ikj_wZnoBnBgHqb_pgEntnyphwTyk6Nk-0uhdyZMLoekspKOgkxz5xJZ3jeO7dneAQPTuEw5kYI-Xye-9tVMidANOvieayZtngugaP0s/s400/image-757859.png" width="400" /></a><br />
Image: SpaceX YouTube. </div>
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What does this mean? SpaceX does hype well, and millions of people tuned in to watch the launch. People reacted to this concatenation of the impossible in many different ways. I felt a profound catharsis, a joy, a renewed faith in humanity.</div>
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As usual, media got a handful of details wrong. This is not the first car ever launched - but it is the first production electric car ever launched! The French mounted (but didn't launch) a Renault once upon the Diamant BP4 rocket, NASA launched 3 electric rovers to the moon in the early 1970s, the Soviets landed two nuclear powered robotic rovers (Lunakhod) on the moon, the Chinese one solar powered rover (Yutu), and of course NASA has also dropped a total of four electric robotic rovers on Mars (Sojourner, Spirit, Opportunity, and Curiosity). </div>
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Second, the Falcon Heavy has been described as the most powerful rocket since blah. As far as I know, it is the most powerful liquid fueled American rocket since the Saturn V. Other rockets with greater thrust include the Soviet N1 rocket, which experienced four catastrophic launch failures in the 1970s, the Soviet Energia rocket, which launched twice in the 1980s, and the space shuttle, which derived most of its thrust from solid rocket boosters rather than liquid engines.<br />
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It also has the largest payload to orbit of any American rocket since the Saturn V. Technically the shuttle had more mass in orbit, but a lot of that was shuttle, and its total payload was, at 25T, comparable to other modern rockets. Officially, Falcon Heavy can deliver 64T to LEO in expendable mode. </div>
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Usually, though, Falcon Heavy will be used in reusable mode. In this configuration, it can launch a similar payload to a single stick Falcon 9 expendable launch, or around 25T. Provided that recovery is usually successful and turnaround on the ground quick and cheapish, this mode for medium lift launch is extremely competitive. </div>
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SpaceX, enjoying a high profile, has an unusually high concentration of public pundits, commentators, and self-appointed experts who are always ready and eager to deliver a verdict on a mission or design choice. Let me add to their chorus and say that launch is really hard, and getting it right the first time is just extraordinary. It is impossible to overstate the magnitude of this technical achievement, particularly given that it was privately funded and relatively quickly developed. It is always easier to critique than to build, and I was somewhat dismayed by the usual twitter outrage over everything from the carbon footprint of the rocket to the colour of the car. </div>
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People, SpaceX *deliberately* chose to be provocative. Why? Because they're competing in an industry against incumbent heavyweights who, instead of using their launches to sell electric cars or liberate the launch market, lobby for protectionist policy and sell weapons to third world despots. If you think humanity has a future, that future involves space, and it has to be done somehow.</div>
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So, of course there was Elon's red Tesla sports car driven by a mannequin in a space suit with cameras on every angle, a bunch of memes scattered around, and a tiny hot wheels Tesla with a tiny space suit on the dash. I wouldn't be that surprised if this particular car was retrieved in flight and plonked in a museum before I die of old age, or internet outrage.</div>
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This launch and its excitement was important. It showed the two generations born since Apollo that space was cool again, space is relate-able, and space is exciting. NASA does space very well, but NASA is beholden to a bizarre incentive and funding structure, and as a result must be extremely risk averse in both mission execution and PR. NASA and SpaceX have formed a productive partnership in part because, for cents on the dollar, NASA has been able to outsource a lot of development and branding risk to SpaceX. </div>
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As a serious space nerd, I was born in the late 80s, an era of shrinking ambition and fading glory. As I learned more about the practice and prospects of space travel, I grew more and more despondent. There was every chance I would live and die without seeing the next big step. This launch was not that step, but it foreshadows it. I can now live with hope. Hope to see, and perhaps to participate in, this really exciting adventure. Maybe Australia will even get a space program?</div>
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The single most overwhelming fact about Falcon Heavy is its size. During the shuttle era, there was a belief put into practice that space activity could be modularized and large stations assembled in orbit. That belief has been tested now for 30 years. It is possible, but it seems that, unless there is no other way, assembling stuff on Earth, where one can breathe, is preferable. I am currently working on a book chapter dealing with ideal division of labor by environmental hostility, but the bottom line is that:<br />
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"There isn't a problem in space that can't be most effectively solved by building an even bigger rocket on Earth."</div>
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My generation of space nerds has spent decades working out how to design ambitious missions with small, bite-sized launches. Falcon Heavy is big enough that it significantly raises the bar for harebrained space activity design. And SpaceX is deep in development of the BFR, a rocket so mind-numbingly huge that it can launch perhaps six times as much as Falcon Heavy. Instead of spending a decade playing space lego in LEO, a rocket like this can launch an entire neighbourhood in fifteen minutes. </div>
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The final point I want to make goes back to the cost efficiency and reusability of Falcon Heavy. Falcon Heavy is really just a special center core that is compatible with any two normal Falcon 9 boosters that happen to be lying around. Provided that SpaceX has perhaps half a dozen Falcon Heavy cores, plus steady upper stage production, it can perform essentially on-demand heavy lift launch. SpaceX has already successfully recovered 21 Falcon 9 boosters - more than half the total they've ever flown. </div>
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We are on the cusp of a paradigm shift in launch. Today, launch is so expensive and missions so difficult and dangerous that program management necessarily has to function in an incredibly risk averse way. In the early 1960s, the US launched dozens of Ranger and Surveyor spacecraft at the moon in preparation for Apollo. What is the difference? In the 1960s there was an essentially unlimited supply of ICBMs that could be used to launch experimental, iterative, minimalist designs. </div>
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Today, a single space robot carries the hopes, dreams, and careers of hundreds of engineers, scientists, and technicians. But there's essentially no reason why previously flown systems, such as the Curiosity Rover, can't be mass pro<span style="font-family: inherit;">duced and one with custom instruments sent to Mars for every university on Earth. It is my fervent hope that Falcon Heavy symbolizes the return of launch supply abundance and post-scarcity robotic space exploration. <span style="background-color: rgb(255 , 255 , 255); display: inline; float: none; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">One Falcon Heavy launch could easily fly six Curiosity-style rovers or literally thousands of solar powered drones to Mars. We're going to need to upgrade the Deep Space Network!</span></span></div>
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I would like to see NASA, ESA, JAXA, or any other funded agency sign a contract with SpaceX today that <u>guarantees a Falcon Heavy launch to every planetary exploration target on every launch window</u> - a steady campaign of about one launch per year per planet. With a steady pipeline of launches guaranteed, the race will be on to fill each one up with a variety of complimentary and innovative payloads. Let's do this!</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqERE_EePv8uv_vH8owRibcwJnsrMilDylTGQYP5hIyLr8XTzPOplSTrRepXzDxF0HYMkFfcsRiaxchkaas59dtIGF0ZIcD5ObTDb9DPZCM-uL4PkwdeiSkC8Rwp5nzheLO2oWLxMHb2k/s1600/image-760511.png"><img alt="" border="0" height="266" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_6520084032449468098" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqERE_EePv8uv_vH8owRibcwJnsrMilDylTGQYP5hIyLr8XTzPOplSTrRepXzDxF0HYMkFfcsRiaxchkaas59dtIGF0ZIcD5ObTDb9DPZCM-uL4PkwdeiSkC8Rwp5nzheLO2oWLxMHb2k/s400/image-760511.png" width="400" /></a><br />
Image: Wikipedia.</div>
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Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-66459973971562722102018-02-04T16:52:00.005+11:002018-02-05T09:23:37.205+11:00Rocket launches!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">This post is the first in a series describing a number of recent projects that I've recently completed! This one is to do with rockets.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12.8px;">Some time in 2015 I was reading some space exploration history and came across this photo on Wikipedia.</span><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_X_SxN79AqKobhAFayEse98tMATTM0SZ_lmzWZV-kSDKVgMOr3f8znfYkWtWsXBPDheL6XqT7_Vnj34CIlb0lWU_bx8-66B99-QmaQt0YdgfTxjEGCHuGAPZWaDy5cRBDSQUqfmrpjbo/s1600/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A13%253A30.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; font-size: 12.8px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="562" data-original-width="638" height="351" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_X_SxN79AqKobhAFayEse98tMATTM0SZ_lmzWZV-kSDKVgMOr3f8znfYkWtWsXBPDheL6XqT7_Vnj34CIlb0lWU_bx8-66B99-QmaQt0YdgfTxjEGCHuGAPZWaDy5cRBDSQUqfmrpjbo/s400/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A13%253A30.png" width="400" /></a><br />
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It depicts the Redstone and Atlas rockets launched with humans on board as part of Project Mercury - the first six flights to space by US astronauts - at their moment of lift off. At this moment, the rocket is supported entirely by hot expanding gases at its base and is pushing hard to escape the Earth. Of course no crewed flight has ever completely escaped Earth's gravity (yet) but getting to orbit is just staggeringly difficult and amazing.</div>
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Here's another photo in a similar vein.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7iHUE5KMeSTOvVFV0UjA_eXWdeQ0-pW8Uxk1sPdvf1bEjgdvwM-vjRlUaICfeLX_R5WlynHy_tz0F4M8ZcquqHMTdsBxSCQ2YC99H85GMryjZMx4vrmt67mupRhNELtkoAUH6StafB0g/s1600/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A14%253A48.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="327" data-original-width="638" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7iHUE5KMeSTOvVFV0UjA_eXWdeQ0-pW8Uxk1sPdvf1bEjgdvwM-vjRlUaICfeLX_R5WlynHy_tz0F4M8ZcquqHMTdsBxSCQ2YC99H85GMryjZMx4vrmt67mupRhNELtkoAUH6StafB0g/s400/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A14%253A48.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.8px;">These are the launches in Project Gemini, ten crewed launches by Titan II to Low Earth Orbit to test technologies for the Moon landing. Each flight tested a variety of things, such as space walks, docking, control, orbital rendezvous, and the systems that made them possible. </span></div>
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The following Apollo program used two types of rocket, the Saturn IB and Saturn V. The Saturn V was the most powerful rocket ever launched, and here's a photo of every flight.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8ywO9-9_wFnqwtNiyPhQUUtasyTgZBMEO6HJ56SPCQilI0EQxquXvG24AAV34dkkxAxoR4sSvtdQ6VH57d6cVqW6fIsy_1BzzhIpEH2m8oWXNA_G-n0TFxvFeX_qES-jZTsAS8ZCx-zw/s1600/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A16%253A53.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="334" data-original-width="633" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8ywO9-9_wFnqwtNiyPhQUUtasyTgZBMEO6HJ56SPCQilI0EQxquXvG24AAV34dkkxAxoR4sSvtdQ6VH57d6cVqW6fIsy_1BzzhIpEH2m8oWXNA_G-n0TFxvFeX_qES-jZTsAS8ZCx-zw/s400/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A16%253A53.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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The first two flights, and the last flight, didn't have people on board. But Apollo 8-17 took three humans each into space. Six of these flights (11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17) landed two people on the moon, a total of twelve humans who have ever walked on another rock. As of February 2018, seven of these have died of old age, leaving just five alive. Given the time it takes to develop space exploration programs, there's a good chance that even if China, Russia, the US, or any other country began development in earnest tomorrow, all twelve Apollo moon walkers would be gone before anyone else landed there. Food for thought.</div>
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After Skylab was launched on the last Saturn V flight, the three remaining vehicles were parked in various museums or fields and the US space program turned to the space shuttle. Over about 30 years, the five shuttles launched nearly 800 people into space on 134 separate successful launches. One more launch was not successful, and one re-entry was also not successful. The shuttle was retired in 2011, and since then no astronauts have launched to space from US soil. </div>
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Hopefully this won't be a permanent state of affairs. Several entities, including NASA, Boeing, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic are developing human rated space vehicles which are due to fly in the next few years.</div>
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Still, I was captivated by the minuscule number of rocket launches that have *ever* launched people to space, so I decided to make a version of the images above that included every single launch. </div>
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This process began with identifying every launch and a photo online and collating them in a gigantic spreadsheet. While I was at it I wanted to collect metadata - the who, when, where, why, and how, and combine this somehow. And since I was being ambitious, I have a separate spreadsheet for Soviet/Russian and Chinese launches of humans into space. In total, a meager 321 flights to date. Fact checking and proof reading all the metadata took FOREVER. But one really cool side effect was being able to make a world map with all the landing sites, colour-coded by program.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1FEgT70hW8GXaC04kPQt1I0C7jLTfirXBLsacrxksQkurOGFVaJkQlRBCBPysluoT-hHhG2UzwlFLirpYLkkyIgv1lwldqwyp1PJOT9NikoPinYzq2cvnkIlEyFYew-FhpKbOved14w0/s1600/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A18%253A11.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="635" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1FEgT70hW8GXaC04kPQt1I0C7jLTfirXBLsacrxksQkurOGFVaJkQlRBCBPysluoT-hHhG2UzwlFLirpYLkkyIgv1lwldqwyp1PJOT9NikoPinYzq2cvnkIlEyFYew-FhpKbOved14w0/s400/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A18%253A11.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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This is what the metadata formatting looks like in the final version. If you find any errors, be sure to let me know!<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1hyQIszTPqLMMGkr__PzfgdDZJkbSnBlEqyj4t7PSdGu66KDPpDkWNGQxijVixQQgvfoRhyphenhyphenHVz8b0RJuMyXYEOLu46ms5id6dRAboxqrCzq6Z3TrmxMvOGw0MQVXe3siOLruIIo_fSrM/s1600/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A19%253A18.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="599" data-original-width="414" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1hyQIszTPqLMMGkr__PzfgdDZJkbSnBlEqyj4t7PSdGu66KDPpDkWNGQxijVixQQgvfoRhyphenhyphenHVz8b0RJuMyXYEOLu46ms5id6dRAboxqrCzq6Z3TrmxMvOGw0MQVXe3siOLruIIo_fSrM/s400/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A19%253A18.png" width="276" /></a></div>
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I quickly realized that photos at the moment of launch and the same perspective, while being in some cases difficult to find, are also very similar and thus monotonous. So I found a variety of photos of launch that captured some of the power and diversity of the experience. In 2011 I personally witnessed the last launch of the space shuttle in Florida, and it is really something else, even from 10 miles away.</div>
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After two years of neglect and then a few months of work, I'm pleased to report that the US launch poster is complete, and indeed hanging on the wall behind me! Moreover the metadata poster is also done. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://sites.google.com/site/caseyhandmer/home/art/space-launch&source=gmail&ust=1517809875935000&usg=AFQjCNGyglhckk9Ti1SkzRzAYn3zFrpOsg" href="https://sites.google.com/site/caseyhandmer/home/art/space-launch" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">The full size images are available on my website</a>, but this is what they look like!<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgABsrADiuUrLiK65iZbvJgICvPrh5b6XXKEiLj-C15jQecuZ8_UnDGNaxkHUemsQdIofsxCFDzxELriFE395c4U_8yE2fY4t35JM-_kLeoTVY_VnLM7AJ0WWV-i8X0bkEOcT5Y1nP9YeU/s1600/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A20%253A23.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="392" data-original-width="638" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgABsrADiuUrLiK65iZbvJgICvPrh5b6XXKEiLj-C15jQecuZ8_UnDGNaxkHUemsQdIofsxCFDzxELriFE395c4U_8yE2fY4t35JM-_kLeoTVY_VnLM7AJ0WWV-i8X0bkEOcT5Y1nP9YeU/s400/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A20%253A23.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: black;">And the version with all the metadata. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjNctUOvDd54SsRIxbzo7QgSQcy3VOK623r262xWcNrJyW5FT7QI5AL0GtIpG_xLzv73vvt0aA2r7VgjD5Uzbto0juasyi_Ni_uRUKx4g5UDDB034iDeLXCnzIWXGyqwoS-l9MunbdVp0/s1600/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A21%253A25.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="392" data-original-width="637" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjNctUOvDd54SsRIxbzo7QgSQcy3VOK623r262xWcNrJyW5FT7QI5AL0GtIpG_xLzv73vvt0aA2r7VgjD5Uzbto0juasyi_Ni_uRUKx4g5UDDB034iDeLXCnzIWXGyqwoS-l9MunbdVp0/s400/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A21%253A25.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: black;">As an important note, Challenger's final flight is not included in this list as it did not make it above 100km, the boundary of space, before catastrophe struck. By this criteria, other failed missions including Columbia's last flight, Soyuz 1, Soyuz 11 are included as they reached space before suffering fatal accidents during landing. Finally, Soyuz 18a, which suffered a staging fault but reached an apogee of 192km before (barely non fatally) crashing to Earth, would also be included. Early X-15 flights which went above 50 miles (80km) but not 100km, are excluded.</span></div>
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<span style="color: black;">I would love to make a Russian version or even a combined version, but unfortunately publicly available photos of Russian launches are often of very poor quality, or even missing entirely. If anyone can find me a photo of Vostok 3, Vostok 5, Soyuz 12, Soyuz 18a, Soyuz 22, Soyuz 23, Soyuz 34, or Soyuz T-14, that would be amazing. Russia is still regularly flying people to space, so the poster would probably have to have a few blank spaces towards the end!</span></div>
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<span style="color: black;">In the meantime, I literally cannot wait for a new US human space launch so I have to update and fix the poster. I'm glad to have finished it off and I hope you enjoy looking at it as much as I enjoyed making it. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-YZ5PiD7dCG9YLzm6ztxZQ59fJN7Qxh5k66aZEkblZ_pLTdFBKX71dG-0VI9dJP06trY3o8Xu0ZNqYfHhfzNEPAHWm2mg1LIHmBNTsG4jj3y9_cbympPZI2Dmt0hG4pQ-9daCAuy-ijA/s1600/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A22%253A28.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="299" data-original-width="480" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-YZ5PiD7dCG9YLzm6ztxZQ59fJN7Qxh5k66aZEkblZ_pLTdFBKX71dG-0VI9dJP06trY3o8Xu0ZNqYfHhfzNEPAHWm2mg1LIHmBNTsG4jj3y9_cbympPZI2Dmt0hG4pQ-9daCAuy-ijA/s400/Screenshot+from+2018-02-04+14%253A22%253A28.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-73290181532200843762017-10-28T17:58:00.001+11:002017-10-30T14:38:02.687+11:00Principles of Mars urban planning (first pass)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-b3d0bc5f-61ba-2bc2-b95c-71fb2acea858"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Autarky</span><span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Complete and indefinite self sufficiency, or breakout capability to reach such with trivial effort. </span></span></span></div>
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<span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-b3d0bc5f-61ba-2bc2-b95c-71fb2acea858"><span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Regular readers will know that I occasionally discuss aspects of Mars settlement. This blog is inspired by some slides presented by SpaceX at IAC2017, which showed a SimCity base growing on Mars. Since Mars cities won't look like this, what will they look like? </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img alt="SpaceX2017MarsBase.png" height="332" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/3WUHi7qXfQLIip0yQ9GkMv3vYx96GTXJSOOkJ3ATuU9e7zi0ultH11gqLcHY4xr4MUf3YXirefo6YIiJKqjMxRpDGysoluiU-9knO8mrBtGz6mPEKUdGfYJn6KP6ObbYIBOKKnup" style="border: none; margin-right: 0px; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The first city on Mars is oriented toward rapidly developing autarky, to minimize exposure to the period of time when the base is dependent on shipments from Earth. This differs a lot from a mostly static Antarctic station outpost, and thus determines a lot about how the city must be planned. No one knows for sure how many people are needed for autarky, but is likely at least a million and will thus require decades of blistering growth. The primary role of fixed infrastructure on Mars then, besides keeping death out, is enabling growth.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In </span><a href="http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2017/09/estimating-mars-settlement-rates.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Estimating Mars Settlement Rates</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, I attempt to estimate growth rates using ship construction and utilization estimates, combined with a population/self sufficiency relation. The Earth Mars launch window occurs every 2.2 years, and initial population growth targets are a factor of 4 per window, later dropping to a factor of 2 depending on ship production, capacity, and reuse. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">No city in history has needed or managed to sustain growth this fast. On Mars, the primary task is building more city for impending arrivals, and the primary constraint is labor availability. To maximize production efficiency, construction will need to use mechanization, automation, and wherever possible, a shirtsleeves environment. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">All this is fairly obvious. Can we now draw a map? Not really. I don't know what a self sustaining Mars city looks like and I probably will not live long enough to find out. Indeed, attempting to learn from experience that doesn't yet exist is a pointless endeavor. But I will wave my hands a bit about the first decade of growth.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In addition to enabling its own maximal growth, the Mars city will perform every other kind of function from life support, transport, recycling, and entertainment to privacy, education, mining, manufacturing, communication, and emergency management. Some of these functions will be distributed, others more centralized. To maximize the utility of limited living space, for instance, compact apartment geometries can be imported from Earth, while landing and launch operations, and other especially hazardous activities, will have to be separated from more vulnerable or less defensible areas. Practically speaking, all functions span a continuum from local to centralized. Somewhere in the middle of this continuum is a point of mandatory separation, and it is here around which individual pressure vessels, habs, vaults, arcades, tunnels, small domes, and vehicles will be divided from each other. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">All of the more local functions (health, education, libraries, sport, food, recreation, spirituality, music, common space, food distribution, non-transformative recycling, life support, temperature control, atmospheric processing, grid stabilization, communications, data storage, residential, non-hazardous industrial live-work spaces, etc) are ideally collocated. Since these all take place in a climate controlled pressure vessel, each pod is self-contained and resilient enough to withstand substantial extrinsic challenges, while nominally meshing and sharing capacity with adjacent systems. Vacuum ops are required only for initial construction and exterior maintenance. Everything else is done in shirtsleeves at minimal marginal labor cost. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Opinions vary on ideal structure design and material, and methods will no doubt continue to evolve drastically during deployment. My personal preference is for hangar-like structures. A cylindrical roof spreads pressure, requires no internal support, can be shielded with dirt, and unlike spherical domes, has simple curvature and decouples ideal volume from geotechnical concerns in the foundation. With few or no windows, the interior could be somewhere between a modern submarine or a Vegas casino - both structures quite comfortable despite uninhabitable exterior environments. I envision structures ranging in size from Quonset huts to Hangar One at Moffett field and larger. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Arched structures of various scales (lrtb). Quonset huts, Project Iceworm, South Pole logistics archways, some building in Hawthorne, Hangar One, Atlantic City Convention Hall.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">They may be connected by sealable bulkhead doors, while the roof can support solar panels or farms, especially the equatorward face of east-west oriented pods. They also have good volume to material/labor ratios. Building materials can range from curved prefab panels to locally produced concrete or brick. Brick vaults may be assembled robotically without formwork using a variety of techniques. Brick and concrete structures are compressional so need preloading before pressurization with several meters of dirt. Numerous other materials and methods are possible, including inflatables. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A growing Mars base, then, could be a densely packed crosscutting network of arched pods, with outskirts being built out at ever more ambitious scale. Manufacturing, chemical work and other non residential activities can be confined to dedicated pods, which can be repurposed (loft conversion!) over time as demand shifts. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Primary demand for water, (nuclear or solar) power, fuel synthesis and storage is associated with launch, so it makes sense to collocate much of this capacity outside the city. Pads with retractable hoses and robot arms can handle ship surface operations at each pad. If the city outgrows the spaceport, construction of new pads and pipes is much less labor intensive than demolishing and/or rebuilding pressurized pods. Spaceports will ideally be located 5-10km north and/or south of the city to keep east-west approach/departure paths clear. On Mars this is well over the horizon! </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">While it may be possible to house a million people under a square km of high rise roofs, and contain industrial processes under 10sqkm, farming on Mars, while not an immediate priority, will eventually require the bulk of covered land, perhaps 100sqkm. It makes sense to operate at the same pressure as the base, rovers, and suits (perhaps 340mbar) but with enriched CO2 for plant growth, and every other trick worked out by decades of dedicated research that hasn't happened yet! The primary difference between farming and habitation structures is that farms need transparent roofs, though ideally still with a layer of water, ice, or glass to mitigate radiation. I like the idea of transparent inflatables sealed to the ground at the periphery and anchored with cables at regular intervals to spread the pressure load into the ground. There's no reason why residential pods couldn't be interspersed between greenhouses. </span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">These structures, similar in concept to an air mattress, would look a bit like this.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img height="247" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/zXY0fBg6kiOpYeT6wxz6DmWb-1RWINSpD41IRlURsXHSTUF7Ge2soTcHZ5i6xwfuVgy-pykCa1pQYjOs3R1lQzk7gTHkt7ETfHWjbHjrI7Ehb5espzE2C8pvUqMEr0-7KnSK3UbI" style="border: none; margin-right: 0px; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">One final consideration is scaling and congestion. Pod bulkhead doors are natural choke points. While clever neighbourhood designs will keep the base walkable for most activities (food, hygiene, schooling, training, recreation), movement of large equipment or lots of people may require progressively larger thoroughfares. This is a great problem to have, since that many people on Mars implies many other problems have already been solved! I think use of tunnel boring machines for subgrade roads and repurposing of legacy structures will prevent problematic congestion.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This is my first pass at Mars urban planning. I have no doubt overlooked many details and obvious issues. I'm interested in developing sensible system design axioms from which any given city plan can be more-or-less trivially derived. I don't know of much other work done with such an aggressive focus on growth, and I'm curious to get a better understanding.</span></span></div>
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Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-74624830299049145222017-10-26T11:39:00.001+11:002017-10-26T11:39:18.018+11:00Visit to Ohio and Australia<div dir="auto"><div dir="ltr">Last week, C and I had back-to-back weddings and excitement. <div><br></div><div>Photos: <a href="https://photos.app.goo.gl/1gD4PDoqNNXiaNa02" target="_blank">https://photos.app.<wbr>goo.gl/1gD4PDoqNNXiaNa02</a></div><div><br></div><div>It started late Friday evening. We found our way to a conspicuously ultra-baseline economy flight, settled in behind an actual dog, and took the red eye direct to Columbus, Ohio. There, we met C's mother's new cat and celebrated the delightful marriage of E and G, whose subsequent honeymoon was, we hear, rather exciting!</div><div><br></div><div>I ate a belated birthday cake and then we flew back west once more, passing over spectacular canyon scenery, various faults, a Hyperloop prototype, and the Ivanpah solar thermal plant on the California-Nevada border. Back in LA the sky was a bruised colour from numerous fires, and we found our way to a lounge in the international terminal. </div><div><br></div><div>Later that evening, we boarded a flight to Sydney. I read a few books, watched the latest Pirates of the Caribbean film, and tried to understand system properties of urban planning in space. On the ground, we were unexpectedly collected at the airport by my parents B&A, and whisked off to our rental apartment. We had planned relatively little for the first few days so that essential tasks like finding suits could be taken care of. I squeezed myself into a sharp blue number, while finding time for a few hikes, avocado toasts, and admiring the luxury cat home my parents transformed their flat into.</div><div><br></div><div>All too soon it was time to dress up and help my brother M into a matrimonial state. The wedding went off without a hitch. Or rather, only one hitch! We had readings from Song of Solomon and sang Jerusalem, and I didn't burst into flames. Then out to the harbour foreshore for photos, then the golf club for a fabulous dinner reception. Once again I was required to engage in some gentle brotherly ribbing as I gave a mercifully short speech welcoming my new favourite sister (sorry A) into the family.</div><div><br></div><div>C and my wedding in August was conducted on a remote island, so it was fortuitous that M was able to assemble the entire family in one place for C and my convenience so soon after. I enjoyed catching up with all the rellies, recharging my accent, and doing some sneaky research into my family's more mysterious origins on the continent. This will be the subject of a future blog post!</div><div><br></div><div>Well, we breathed a huge sigh of relief, borrowed dad's car, and set off on a road trip to see a bit more of Australia than we had on prior trips. Australian roads are good but the speed limits are horribly low and the drive thus extremely boring. We did see a good variety of wildlife though. </div><div><br></div><div>First stop was the NSW central coast, where we gatecrashed my grandmother's choir rehearsal, investigated the giant pelicans, went for a hike, and attempted to avoid being dive bombed by seagulls while rowing around the bay. C and I cooked a huge dinner for my grandparents which was well received. One of the parts were potato latkes, which seem to me to be a lot of work to get out something which is basically a baked potato. </div><div><br></div><div>After a couple of days we set out once more, traveling via Norah Head Lighthouse, where we got the best Australian accent lesson ever, to Buttai, a remote corner of the Hunter Valley where my great grandfather used to "go off the leash" with his brothers in semi retirement, reliving their incredibly poverty stricken childhood. Sooner or later the entire area will be strip mined, so good to check it out while I have the chance. </div><div><br></div><div>We continued up the road, turning off on the Bylong Valley Way, a picturesque route through the Wollemi National Park, and also soon to be strip mined. At the town, we enjoyed a quick snack in the general store and explored a nearby graveyard. Almost all the graves dated from around Australia's regional grazing boom (1870-1930) but there were two fresh graves from 2015 in which a 97 year old couple had been (post mortem) interred.</div><div><br></div><div>Nearly there. We arrived in the late afternoon at my aunt G's farm outside Rylstone, finding noone but a lot of dogs and a half-cooked dinner. Perfect for exploration, so we found the new house site, the folly (a whimsical shed to contain us) and, eventually, living humans. </div><div><br></div><div>There was much excitement in town because it was the start of the semi-annual international chainsaw large scale wood sculpture symposium. Later, we met a local who was involved in making a horror film documentary, so all things considered it was an ideal time to spend a few days sleeping in an isolated shed with no electricity, running water, phone service, or much but trees and kangaroos around. </div><div><br></div><div>We enjoyed meeting the sculptors and seeing the incredible art being installed everywhere. We found a lot of large spiders, not all of them still alive. The biggest by far was Mr Tiny, a 4" wide huntsman spider who kept a few eyes on us while we took a shower. Later he refused to stand still so we took him outside. </div><div><br></div><div>Overnight it began to rain, so the next day we suited up and went for a quiet walk down the main ridge of the property. This part of the world has some incredible "beehive" sedimentary rock formations. I have long had a secret ambition to hollow one of them out and build a cozy house inside. Once, I stayed in hollow rocks in central Turkey. It might be easier to build the house and then clad it in rock-like material. Getting useful windows that are invisible from outside would also require some finesse. </div><div><br></div><div>All too soon it was time to head back to the city. We drove south and east via the Three Sisters near Katoomba, then spent a few hours at my old school talking to students about careers in STEM fields. That evening we gathered a few friends and gatecrashed my sister's house for an amazing dinner of purple risotto and music. The following day we relaxed with family, hung out with my old neighbours whose house is full of Antarctic art, and then flew back to the US. About an hour after taking off I looked out the window and saw Lord Howe Island cruising by! It's also a pretty cool place to visit, some time.</div><div><br></div><div>Recently it has seemed as though I make it to Australia about once a year. It's odd to see evidence of how much time has passed, but I'm sure the experience is similar for Australian residents who rarely see me! I have a few more years before my grey hairs become overwhelmingly obvious, I think.</div></div></div> Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-67219553538776806252017-10-01T19:13:00.001+11:002017-10-01T19:13:58.381+11:00SpaceX update at IAC 2017<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-14201587-d6fe-18b8-ba3d-81df938f0dfa"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Late last Thursday evening I enjoyed watching Elon Musk deliver his second update on SpaceX's plans for Mars, or Making Humans Multiplanetary. If you haven't seen it, watching this </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdUX3ypDVwI" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">video</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> will make the rest of this blog much less confusing. I've </span><a href="http://www.caseyhandmer.com/home/mars" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">written a bit about Mars over the years</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, and I'm always excited to hear what SpaceX has been up to. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A year ago, </span><a href="http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2016/09/spacex-mars-plan-analysis.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I wrote a blog</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> about the plan as then presented, and I'm thrilled to see its evolution and write a bit about my new thoughts. I'm going to split this blog into three parts. The first will deal with the major development - money. The second will discuss the mission profile. The last will deal with Mars urban planning.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In 2016, it wasn't immediately obvious how to pay to develop the Mars rocket let alone run the program. A couple of months ago, I wrote a </span><a href="http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2017/09/how-to-fund-space-settlement-where-does.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">blog on this topic</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. And I'm thrilled that not only did I not guess what SpaceX was planning (though I was closish), what they have proposed is a better idea than anything I wrote about there.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">SpaceX plans to retire the Falcon and build only BFRs for every mission it can think of. It will redirect all its engineering know how to building the new system, and thus finally find a method to freeze design of the Falcon 9 at Block 5 without further meddling! Why is Falcon a dead end? It is not fully reusable.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">SpaceX can build and sell the Falcon 9 for about $65m for a single expendable launch. While their recovery of the first stage can help their business both by decreasing their fixed costs by a factor of perhaps three and increasing the number of boosters available, they can do a lot more. Even if they could refly the first stage hundreds of times with marginal cost per launch, the fixed cost of the expendable second stage, which must be near $10m, means that they can't revolutionize launch completely. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Here comes the realization. At $65m a launch they're already crushing the competition. With the landing of the booster SpaceX lacks credible competition for at least a decade. They could lower their launch cost to maybe $20m a launch and nourish the microsatellite market, but the overall demand for launches is likely to remain fairly static in terms of mass to orbit. This is because thousands of cube sats don't weigh much compared to the really big communications and military satellites. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Enter the BFR. The BFR might cost $500m to build. But if SpaceX charges $65m a launch - the same as it is doing today - and the BFR is entirely reusable, then it can recoup that cost within the first year of launches and then some. The BFR only has to fly about 10 times to close the business case, and there's no reason it couldn't eventually fly hundreds of times. Given that the cost of fuel is somewhere around a million dollars per launch, SpaceX has a huge advantage, because customers have no ability to force the price down against other competition who already charges between four and ten times as much as SpaceX. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The BFR is hugely over specced for any launch currently manifested. With a nominal capacity of 150T to LEO and perhaps 40T to GTO, there isn't a satellite it can't launch. Hell, it could probably launch any existing satellite into the sun. Well, not quite - it turns out that's really difficult. Does it matter that there's no real demand for 150T to LEO launches? Does it matter that the BFR will thus fly 5% full for most launches? </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: italic; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Not if those launches are profitable.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> The airline industry's costs are about 13% for fuel, so a single BFR launch may cost as much as $5m, but SpaceX won't have many of the airlines fixed costs, like hiring pilots. So while the BFR's capacity could enable huge space telescopes or probes to Saturn or gigantic space stations, it can also fly mostly empty, or perhaps carry SpaceX's own cargo (such as fuel or internet satellites) with its excess capacity. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Here's another way to think about it. Given the current cost of launch is 100x the fuel cost, a fully reusable rocket could be 100x too big and still make economic sense. Why 150T, then? SpaceX wants these rockets to be big, for moving stuff to Mars. But really large rockets are harder to build and transport. Elon tweeted that the BFR was sized to fit through a door in an assembly facility. The door size constraint also set the size of the Saturn V. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Since last year's presentation, the performance of the Raptor engine has deteriorated slightly, which probably reflects its development path. It's worth pointing out that while a heavier BFR with a less exquisite Raptor might not be very useful for flying back from Mars, it is still capable of flying there, and more than capable of launching stuff into orbit around the Earth. Big dumb rockets suffer a design constraint which is that small changes in structural efficiency have big (and bad) effects on overall system performance. A good illustration of this is the evolution of the Falcon 9 rocket. When it first flew, it could only just loft 9.5T into orbit. Today, it is rated at 22.8T, even though the underlying plan remains the same. What changed? The engines got a bit better, and the rocket got a bit lighter. Imagine if the Mars ship, designed to lift 228T to Mars, turned out for the first few years to only lift 95T? The mission would be over. Elon briefly addressed this in the talk, when explaining a benefit of on-orbit refilling of fuel and oxidizer. Even if the booster turns out to suck, the spaceship can still be fully fueled in orbit, retiring that developmental risk. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">What about the possible use case for high speed transport on Earth? Very roughly, the numbers check out here too. Oxygen and methane cost about $200/tonne, and each rocket needs about 4000T of fuel. So taking the airline numbers again, each flight could cost $5m. If each rocket can carry 150T of payload, that's about 1500 passengers, so the per head cost might come to $3000, which is comparable to current long haul costs. Interestingly, over shorter distances, the spaceship alone (without the booster) could make a flight. So this seems to address current usage patterns and cost structures, though is much more marginal than the launch business. Finally, although Elon would no doubt love a launch pad near every city, they are noisy places and town planners generally did not provision for the 4-6 mile exclusion zone they require. My eyebrows remain raised!</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So what are we to make of the other efforts to bring about industrial capture of disruptable industries? Even though SpaceX's plan is to capture the launch market with a fully reusable rocket ("shuttle done right") it has a few other plays in internet satellites (Starlink) and tunnel boring (The Boring Company). I think these efforts are developing technology which is important for the Mars project and may eventually become huge sources of revenue themselves.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mission Profile</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Elon Musk provided a few updates on the mission profile. As an example, the spaceship has enough ΔV to fly to the Moon and back without lunar refueling if refilled in an elliptical Earth orbit. This would take about three times as many tanker flights, first to fill up a tanker completely in LEO, then fly that to an elliptical orbit several times to refill the spaceship. A Mars ship launched like this could also take much more cargo to Mars, though its Mars entry would be proportionately more difficult. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I have heard some discussion about distribution of the engines and their uses. It is important to remember that the rocket is ten times heavier when fueled up, and the bigger engine bells work much better in space. Therefore, while one Raptor engine is adequate to land a nearly empty spaceship, all 31 on the first stage are needed to lift the whole stack off the Earth. Similarly, a fully fueled ship lifting off from Mars needs four high efficiency vacuum engines, while two sea level engines are adequate for landing. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I was fascinated to see the section on the </span><a href="https://youtu.be/tdUX3ypDVwI?t=35m29s" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mars entry profile</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, as I wrote a </span><a href="https://github.com/CHandmer/MarsEDL" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">somewhat less sophisticated model</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> to study this problem some time ago. Landing on Mars is very difficult for all kinds of reasons, but attentive watchers may have noticed that the spaceship enters the atmosphere </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-style: italic; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">upside down.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Why is that? It turns out that entering the Mars atmosphere at 8500m/s, as SpaceX plans to do, is easily fast enough to skip off and escape the planet entirely. The spaceship is a lifting body and uses its lift not to fight gravity, but to help gravity pull the vehicle closer to the ground as it tries to skip off the atmosphere. In my model I computed that the spaceship would have to fly below about 40km to be able to beat centrifugal force. In this way, the entering vehicle curves around the planet. When its speed drops below Mars orbital velocity (~3700m/s) then it gradually rolls to a nose up attitude, where its lift continues to dissipate speed until, falling straight down it lights the engine and performs a flawless landing on the surface. The 2017 spaceship has really pointy legs, so I hope they pick a really hard flat surface to land on. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The LEO refilling concept has also been simplified. Rather than two spaceships flying close along side like mating whales, they now back up to each other. A small thruster creates enough force for fuel to drain from the tanker to the ship. Alternatively, if the parking orbit is low enough, residual atmospheric drag could provide some ullage force.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Although this was not explained, I presume that the landing pads build on Mars have hatches beneath which coiled hoses can be lifted to the spaceship for autonomous refueling. For this and related reasons, I think the spaceship might need a robot arm. Similarly, while a crane on the ship can lower cargo to the surface, an established Mars base would have to have mobile gantries that can be rolled alongside like siege machinery to facilitate rapid unloading and loading of cargo. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mars urban planning</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Finally, Elon had a couple of slides on how the </span><a href="https://youtu.be/tdUX3ypDVwI?t=39m19s" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mars base would grow</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. I like the images. I like all space-related concept art. </span><a href="http://www.humanmars.net/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">www.humanmars.net</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> has some of the best! </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img alt="SpaceX2017MarsBase.png" height="332" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/_o9GoIZUCNpKY6OVV_0V7qFxoGSI5B8gM93fWgh8nIuXAkAqhC70pqxCvInNvE_8U7SxVj0bpXVDKpDspd9ldZbvDci_Q5slCkQP75LB4fAutzalRTxPaJ2O2E0qamvd7iE726a_" style="border: none; margin-right: 0px; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">But these images are very Sim City. Will a Mars base actually look like that? What will a Mars base look like? Why? I talked a bit about Hab design principles in </span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/How-Get-Earth-Mars-Solving-ebook/dp/B01MR6BOP0/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">my Mars book</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. But Mars urban design is not an established field, and I think Elon was trolling us with this design. Indeed, I think SpaceX's main goal at present is to systematically derisk a human Mars mission to entice NASA and Congress to bite. Designing Mars bases is a few steps ahead. Moreover, SpaceX would like other titans of industry to join in and collaborate on these issues.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In particular, all those glass domes are just 200m from the landing pad! How far from the landing pads does the city have to be? What are its primary functions? What are its design principles? All these questions are good topics for a future blog. But clearly balancing primary needs for transport, power, water, fuel, and above all growth, are non-trivial! </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Conclusion</span></div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I can't wait to see what comes out over the next year. This, the settling of another planet, remains the single most challenging, exciting, and worthy problem for all of humanity. I firmly believe that if my generation doesn't achieve this, the eventual extinction of humanity is all but certain. For more in this vein, check out </span><a href="https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">these epic Wait But Why posts</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0 , 0 , 0); font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span></span></div>
Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-76024529337812532052017-09-19T04:27:00.001+10:002017-09-22T04:08:33.303+10:00Estimating Mars settlement rates<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-1243957d-9637-2811-18a2-be8995657867"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Question:</span></span></div>
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<span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-1243957d-9637-2811-18a2-be8995657867"><u><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">How to get to an industrially self-sustaining Mars settlement </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-style: italic; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">in the minimum time?</span></u></span></div>
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<span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-1243957d-9637-2811-18a2-be8995657867"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Previously I've approached the broader problem in a book (<a href="http://www.caseyhandmer.com/home/mars">http://www.caseyhandmer.com/home/mars</a>) and several blogs, focused on a transport roadmap (</span><a href="http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2017/05/a-roadmap-to-industrially-self.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2017/05/a-roadmap-to-industrially-self.html</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">) and potential sources of money</span></span></div>
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<span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-1243957d-9637-2811-18a2-be8995657867"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(</span><a href="http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2017/09/how-to-fund-space-settlement-where-does.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2017/09/how-to-fund-space-settlement-where-does.html</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">). In this blog I'll attempt to integrate previous knowledge and make projections about time frames and costs.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Edit: Now all the <a href="https://github.com/CHandmer/mars-cargo-model/blob/master/GlobalDataTable.csv">data is available</a> (csv) so you can slice and dice it.</span><br />
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<span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-1243957d-9637-2811-18a2-be8995657867"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In the previous post, I used the following graph to explain the relationship between population and self-sufficiency under a variety of scenarios, including constant and linearly increasing cargo capacity. It turned out that the final result did not much depend on how many rockets were available when, but the timescale certainly does. In this blog, I will build on the SpaceX exploration architecture. The most fundamental bottleneck is the rate of rocket construction and launch, so we will explore how construction rate affects the population and self-sufficiency timeline.</span></span></div>
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<span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-1243957d-9637-2811-18a2-be8995657867"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="336" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/M1_m_YXjbXN4j8Z7hSZW7pTL-DLRHMzbOdEfF8luOez416FG_mA0EZsCO_sloRT_cZ1qBsSj0Cya3ddjWzjq4uXlxOzTVRdC0HXWyABgovGOWmlkCr31K8bWqhBJJ55Wa1utxj68" style="border: none; margin-right: 0px; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
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<span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-1243957d-9637-2811-18a2-be8995657867"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This graph shows a schematic relationship between population (horizontal axis) and mass self-sufficiency (vertical axis) under a cargo-constrained Mars settlement scenario. The settlement begins at the bottom left and scales towards the top right, where at some population likely exceeding a million people they are sufficiently industrially diverse that they no longer depend on crucial technology to be shipped from Earth. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Before I dig into actual numbers, I'm going to state my assumptions. For better or for worse, a lot of space-exploration themed writing, technical or otherwise, does not hew to the best possible standards for rigor. Here, I'm not going to delve into religious disputes about asteroid mining, lunar fuel stops or any other peripheral concept that's not related to the core bottlenecks. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">There are two primary phases of the settlement timeline. The first, corresponding to the region of the red line below the purple cusp in the diagram above, marks the phase where scaling population within the limits of cargo shipments is a growing challenge. Loosely speaking, this challenge peaks with the successful instantiation of ore mining and refining for every industrially relevant metal and chemical - requiring interaction with the raw, unfriendly Mars environment. This phase is also the phase most directly applicable to current technology and projections. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Assuming the first phase proceeds more or less as planned and everyone doesn't die, the second phase marks the rush from the cusp to full industrial independence. By this point in the program, at least decades after initial landings, technology at every point of the exercise will have evolved to the point where predictions are difficult to make in 2017. Specifically, I expect that the forcing function of extreme Mars labor scarcity will result in drastic improvements in rockets, automation, manufacturing, and so on. It is possible, even likely, that this flowering of technology will reduce the minimum viable technology population more rapidly than ever-expanding immigration increases it. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">That is, at the point of the cusp perhaps 20 years after initial landings, best estimates may still place the minimum viable population at 10 million, at least 30 years away even if the population doubles each launch window. At that cusp, net immigration could be in the tens of thousands per window but will have to increase to 100x that, something I think it rather unlikely.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Instead, rapid improvements in extraction and manufacturing technologies will reduce the minimum viable population to less than a million and perhaps less than the tens of thousands. As this trend continues, it will be possible to launch entire self-sufficient cities in one go, and perhaps a few decades later Mars will have thousands of self-sufficient towns, even though the total population may never reach the 10 million originally required.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It is important to emphasize that self-sufficiency is represented in reality as more capability than practice, since trade will always help increase overall economic efficiency. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I will sketch a picture of phase two, but first I will provide some numbers. Afterall, if the first self-sustaining settlement doesn't get built, there'll be no way for the ones that come after.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><u>Phase One</u></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">As I explain in my book, the hard part is getting rockets from Mars to Earth, and to a lesser extent, from Earth to Mars. Here, I'll explain the constraints on total shipping capacity, then build a model that creates a plausible shipping capacity roadmap.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A spaceship has a number of important properties. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Cargo capacity to the Martian surface.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Based on the IAC2016 talk and subsequent tweets, initial SpaceX Mars ships will have a cargo capacity of around 300T to the Martian surface. Second generation ships may increase this to around 1000T, but further increases are limited by a variety of physical constraints including the thinness of Mars' atmosphere.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Whether it can be reused and rate of reuse.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> The Mars ship is composed of a space ship, a tanker, and a booster. Initial boosters and tankers will be flown 6-30 times to refill the spaceship. The first spaceship will fly to Mars, spend nearly 2 years on the surface making propellant, then fly back to Earth. While the first few spaceships will be put near the Smithsonian, later spaceships will be able to fly to Mars every launch window after the emplacement of a fuel/ox plant and storage by the launch zone. Much later, improvements in engines could permit two flights to Mars per launch window. Over this time, the total number of Mars flights a spaceship can perform before retirement will also gradually increase. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Rate of construction.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> These spaceships are super complicated and difficult to make. Initial spaceships could easily take multiple years to build. Over time, the construction time will decrease and a single line can make more of them per launch window, increasing the total number of spaceships. Additional parallel lines can be built, perhaps by other space agencies using related technology, which also increases the total number of spaceships.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So how many spaceships are there per year?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">To answer this question I built a Mathematica model that takes as inputs a function for the construction rate of various types, and outputs all sorts of information about total flights and total mass. This model can be downloaded from my github at <a href="https://github.com/CHandmer/mars-cargo-model">https://github.com/CHandmer/mars-cargo-model</a>. But here are the key results.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="260" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/zdLeZAm5ug4xGhI38v6M51kLT-xYYWx8G57B75Uj3FSrrm7FU_lLrzdH3PfwD74MM6oa70KW-p0ew_GEYi2m5rz-KZd5sbrETz7RG00ssdsrG0G8E4F996FS2HafSABLeJuQrLpI" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This table contains a summary of all the different types and versions of spacecraft used in the model. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="194" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/woiUMWb6euJy_v_J6_cXZPcap_fpuxN41TrxUnx-olSeSZG208ibqVtnpNE62ymzZqMJpqm41lzQMmt5CrF9OMG0EzsEbQm6AkJAY2dqao5Rln8aIQ6xdCed3IuGL2AcpgVberdq" style="background-color: white; border: none; font-family: Arial; font-size: small; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This is a reconstruction of build rate (per window) from the global manifest data. We see here that as Version 1 reaches rate Version 2 is in the early production phase, on a roughly 8 year design cycle. After 2042, Version 2 production dominates investment and an additional line is added.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="225" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/LycmPiRNAYjWbPd20KIOkJMTMRW87IRFdHuLh_Vx8A7vIy-sbTDpa26L0-FBGclA13rc4639gViT3ld8-iPV_bBHB0LaOgExlG5kzCyNW45156WxUbiufwbtWXsDtToXQ-8vlOHK" style="border: none; margin-right: 0px; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This graph shows how spaceship production and reuse increase the payload to Mars year over year. From 2042, Version 2 lifts the total throughput by nearly an order of magnitude.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="231" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/qgh6NsRBuxQbD1IFYcAfsF_Ftx5vm51zg4QlwuRJTRCEh_SQc1QifdJvQHmH08SyfcP3AZUxvm7vN4NnMSN-Bpob7OLF2RUrEfen3D9c13uu46qz9oAh02yJcGyFsv62-haMiO_o" style="border: none; margin-right: 0px; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This graph shows the cumulative cargo transported to Mars, reaching the crucial million tonne mark in about 2052. Given that mass transport begins in 2027, this process takes only 25 years to achieve.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I had a couple of surprises when seeing the results of this model. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">First, total payload capacity increases very quickly. The period of time for which an initial settlement is constrained by quasi-constant cargo capacity is basically non-existent. This actually makes sense heuristically, in that it's easier to build lots of spaceships on Earth than it is to build a complete industry in space. It has a positive consequence too, which is that if the general relation between population and mass independence is maintained, the overall population can be scaled up even more quickly than before. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The second surprise was that there is genuine utility to building a Version 2 spaceship with 3x the capacity - as it compresses the timescale to reach a million tonnes of cargo by 15 years.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So how quickly does the population scale?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This is another difficult question to answer, but assuming a population-industry trajectory like the red curve given in the first graph above, the total mass each sequential settler has to bring with them can be predicted and a population-mass relation extracted.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="208" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/2M1kofNz3L2vOZNZyIY7-Q2ScSXo0WlQB3U342GhOcz6h-zJEZFJekx9wTgdB8EyH8LOVh2FRS9gJjD3J_kd8tJMZjRnz67at3o9Ec4ViVT5xmDIQ8Lz6CdpGZeBXYfZC0qW7Wr-" style="border: none; margin-right: 0px; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This graph shows the total mass payload per person, assuming that the first 10 people, landing in 2027, consume the 900T of payload then available, and that the residual payload is 500kg, enough for a person and the food they have to eat on the journey.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="209" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/TI9TDxsdg96wAq-xxc3t_fMVrJ81PAfoo2F9_PbOlXG8j3bbLTASYfAJzv6iZ9jJIGDHFXA7Vw-YC0GYpNoEO_wMEsE6vRWAtDRbcrtM4nBq6DF9nlhqxMteYgiBhcJUrC6B3-GL" style="border: none; margin-right: 0px; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This graph shows how the cumulative mass shipped scales with population. The population reaches a million people as the cumulative mass hits 620,000 tonnes. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="244" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/ZRCR225VSC-oSv_XCT-2UCr__F9hqzzHQmx2n4zrmPkhwgNZQkEPxqy6c0nYiNQVWnBPdfE1-mAhXu6ASS9Yq2RkXLYHy1hruzr5wXtIhnlRh-HqtRKrHq_laz22oqadTTdgdoe7" style="border: none; margin-right: 0px; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This graph shows how population grows as a function of time. Here, the population exceeds a million in the 2050 launch window, 23 years after first landing.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="272" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/B7QlO62R1GNPXGVG7tPq4sI10t2xOq-VibidAEsCHyklYnNHoXjDQ6C1miUxHRqRerqqdjz_W7kVPINh7cPV52OCLzzGqgvK-4pO1LyZecq0DjHhC4CkxIA8vqQkLOrF-vRYP3fa" style="border: none; margin-right: 0px; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This graph shows the window over window fractional population increase. The population grows very rapidly in the first decade to around 10,000 people. This reflects the easy gains of rapidly increasing shipping capacity and gas/water processing for plastics and propellant. 10,000 people is enough to begin mining and processing of metal ores to complete the set of available Martian feedstocks for the development of advanced industry. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Window over window gains drop below 2 from 2045 as all available space in Mars ships is consumed with passengers. If further explosive growth is needed, more ships and more flights are needed to transport people.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">What does it cost?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In the previous section we eliminated mass to discover the population-time relations. Here, we reslice the data to discover the mass per passenger on a launch window basis.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="232" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/bvgTfJckP6tstcw37m6hXI4kwHHAQK0EYvHU_rIBGATbua9RPFizCy0weuF0a5Kr_RRqXl2tHCFiN3Q-GA_ykBTuN4b_3Gyyvzf3Oa1_Yo6uYJeNwdZjI2ubXba4wai4_6-JBRzz" style="border: none; margin-right: 0px; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This graph shows that by 2033, cargo mass per passenger has fallen to about a tonne, putting a ticket within reach of a middle class family. Someone arriving in this launch window could be the 10,000th person on Mars, and will mark the transition from program-selected specialists to self-selected professionals. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In 2035, a Version 1 spaceship can carry about 300 passengers, each with a tonne of cargo. By 2044, a Version 2 spaceship can carry about 2000 passengers, each with 500kg of cargo. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Let's adopt some ballpark numbers. A version 1.5 spaceship+tanker+booster may be constructed for a price comparable to a modern composite passenger jet, say $500m. Each refit costs $100m (of which a tiny fraction is propellant), for a total lifetime cost over 16 reuse cycles of $2b, or $125m per flight. If this is split evenly in time and between 300 passengers in 2035, the per ticket cost is around $420,000. A version 2.5 spaceship+tanker+booster will cost $500m to build, $50m to refit, and fly 30 times. Split evenly, the per-ticket cost in 2044 is $33,000, for a $65m/flight total cost.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Unfortunately it is difficult to be more precise than this, due to multiple cascading uncertainties. By the onset of "general admission" tickets in 2035, many billions will have already been spent on development and construction of spaceships which may not recover their construction costs in regular service for decades. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">That said, I can attempt to estimate development and construction costs. Design rate and cost for both spaceships is $500m and 20/window, which works out to around $4.5b/year. This starts at the beginning of the program, even if the production rate doesn't reach design rate until 8 years later. Thus construction costs alone reach $4.5b/year in 2022 and $9b/year in 2032. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Reuse costs are initially low due to low numbers of reused spaceships, but eventually dominate overall program costs. By this point, however, ticket revenue will effectively offset this cost, and eventually fund the construction of new ships and entire program.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The primary financial outlay, then, occurs between 2018 and 2040, and may total $132b at an average of $6b/year. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="244" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/qGpUntNPv31pceBLLaCAdBGMjDlGXv2osTm9SMRlkzd1w4ckXh5Y9t68idS2_TxI2abjJRgxnbJ6NP6zkd73dNkxDWH4RrFZBp4Y3hdqBatg-Qyev2E7ZPa8_HZZN4dEyDJcy3DG" style="border: none; margin-right: 0px; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This graph shows how the number of ships built and launched varies over time. If refit costs are 20% building costs, then building costs dominate until about 2040, by which time general admission revenue can begin to cover much of the program's operating costs.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Model Limitations</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This model is generated from rocket building history alone. It doesn't take into account any other aspect of the universe, including human mortality, accident rates, or the possibility of mission failure. While guessing numbers and adding them to the model is technically easy, I judge that it would greatly increase uncertainty (fudge factor) while not adding much insight. Model complexity is only useful up to a point.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><u>Phase Two</u></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Earlier, I defined phase one as the era of cargo constraint, and phase two as the era of accelerating returns. As we've seen above phase two has a different kind of restraint, namely an immigration capacity restraint. By 2045, the critical path for growth is how many people can fit on a Version 2 spaceship, although under nominal predictions a million people are reached only 5 years later, by 2050.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Here, I will wrap up by listing technology concepts that could lift this constraint and permit further high rates of growth into the future. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Higher construction rate of Version 2. Constraints on construction and launch rate are so low that many thousands of ships could be launched every window. Construction rates could climb into the hundreds per year in a single factory. Ticket revenue could fund this, if a positive margin on launch business was maintained. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Faster ships that can launch multiple times in longer launch windows. This requires better engines and better mass ratios, but eventually there could be cargo and people arriving year round. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Entry of other companies and agencies into the bargain. Could achieve 10x, possibly 100x on rate. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">On the flip side, I think it's likely that the minimum viable population requirement will shrink to the point that even small outposts will have the ability to reach full autarky.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><u>Project Timeline</u></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mars 2020 - Aquifer search probes land, Version 0 ships performing atmospheric tests on Earth.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mars 2026 - First 10 crew arrive, 3 ships on surface. They scale propellant plant, assemble a lot of base for new arrivals. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mars 2030 - Middle of explosive growth phase, base population grows to near 1000. Pilots for all primary industries established. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mars 2035 - First private and 10,000th settler arrives. Mars spaceport hosts dozens of Version 1 ships and the Version 2 prototype, looming over the rest. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mars 2043 - Ticket prices fall below $100k and the population exceeds 100k. All secondary industries at least in pilot phase. "Mission accomplished"</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mars 2050 - Population on Mars exceeds a million. Dozens of outposts formed.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "arial"; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mars 2060 - A web of towns and cities all over Mars, with the first base and by far the largest forming a sort of hub. </span></div>
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Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-77804711476019039042017-09-11T04:52:00.001+10:002017-09-11T04:52:28.550+10:00How To Fund Space Settlement - Where Does The Money Come From?<div dir="ltr"><span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-10219f4b-6d1d-3005-268f-3fda79826807"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="background-color:transparent;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial;white-space:pre-wrap">Regular readers will know of my enthusiasm for the settlement of humans in space. Last year, I wrote a book (<a href="http://caseyhandmer.com/home/mars">caseyhandmer.com/home/mars</a>) about unsolved technical problems connected to Mars. Here I'm going to take a slightly different tack and talk about the financial question. In a previous post (<a href="http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2017/05/a-roadmap-to-industrially-self.html">http://caseyexaustralia.blogspot.com/2017/05/a-roadmap-to-industrially-self.html</a>) I talked about launch cadence and shipping for industrialization of Mars on a rapid timescale. This discussion is oriented towards that problem, but I hope will be general enough to be useful for any other potential destination, including the Moon, asteroids, deep space, low Earth orbit, or beyond. </span><br></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Aspects of this discussion often take on a religious tone. Here, my only goal is to explicate various options and perhaps list the strengths and weaknesses of each proposal - certainly no single approach is adequate to the task. It is clear that this is a problem that can consume extremely large sums of money!</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">How much exactly? It is difficult to know for sure. Using the industrialization text as a start, I propose that a population of 10,000 people can be reached on Mars in 20 years with a steadily growing launch cadence, requiring the construction of a new giant rocket every year, with re-use gradually becoming more widespread. The construction of this vehicle, plus tech for the ground, could run into the billions of dollars per year. Therefore I will baseline assumptions that a Mars settlement program will require billions, but perhaps not many tens of billions, per year for the indefinite future. This sounds like a lot of money. This isn't the place to justify expenditure of huge quantities of treasure on a project that will benefit practically no-one alive today, and maybe no-one ever. I will state merely that it is of the order of NASA's current budget, or slightly less than the cost of air conditioning in military bases in Afghanistan. It is also comparable to national expenditure on cosmetics, or a medium scale infrastructure project such as maintaining the interstate system.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">In the following I have split various proposals into a few subheadings, but there is substantial crossover.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Finance</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Broadly speaking, finance-backed concepts draw on the only limitless resource on Earth - human greed - and try to provide a mechanism for a big payday down the road. Generally speaking, any Mars-related investment could probably get better returns in less time on any other project on Earth. In particular, most very wealthy people don't have 50 years to wait for their money to grow! This is the primary obstacle to finance-based funding methods. Nevertheless, the quantities of money being spent, and the outrageous scarcity of certain key resources along the way, make for many business opportunities with shorter timescales for ROI. No-one doubts that settlement of space won't make a lot of people very wealthy, but the overall source of wealth is another question entirely!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Value capture. As space transport tech improves (as it must), the value of assets in space increases disproportionately. It is possible to hedge this increase in value by, say, buying options on likely sources of key resources on Mars and holding the paper until someone needs to buy it. The primary weakness of this approach is that ownership of resources in space may be very hard to enforce, and existing legal frameworks are still very underdeveloped. Certain strategic materials or manufacturing know how on Earth has already proven to be a good bet. </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Arbitrage. Similar to value capture. Find a way of pricing some asset that has a lot of uncertainty in its future valuation, or is significantly undervalued in the market, and place a bet. Financial instruments surrounding insurance were key components of both the Dutch East India company and the 2008 financial crash. There's plenty of money available if one can figure out how to direct it.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Triangle trade. This will be useful down the track, where Mars will be the obvious staging post for asteroid mining in the main belt, if there's ever a need for that. The Mars settlement has to get to a certain size before this is possible. </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Media rights. It may be possible to control the flow of information to and from Mars well enough that selling the media rights provides enough capital to keep the program going. This was the idea behind Mars One, and I doubt it would produce enough revenue, at least after all the middle men on Earth have taken their cut.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Blockchain. Never say never. A Mars currency ICO? Or space-resource backed currencies more generally? I can imagine blockchain-based technologies becoming part of a collaborative design and manufacturing effort, but I doubt there are enough users and buyers of crypto currency to provide the steady stream of money needed.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Philanthropic</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">There is a long history of philanthropic space exploration. Indeed, since the invention of the telescope by Galileo, nearly all major telescopes have been funded by wealthy donors of one sort or another. Why? There's an industry devoted to discovering ways to get the rich to part with their money, but many of the 19th century industrialists who funded the famous instruments of Southern California wanted to contribute a positive legacy. </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- There are people who are so rich they have nothing to spend their money on but more money. Or a space program! At the most basic level, if each California billionaire bought the naming rights to one big rocket for a billion dollars, the problem would be largely solved. Who doesn't want to name a gigantic rocket in honor of Steve Jobs?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Crowd funding. Relatively small contributions by some large number of people can raise stupendous sums of money, as the IRS has shown. </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- At a more general level, space tourism could be a source of revenue, much as a handful of enthusiasts can get flown to the south pole or space station for absurd sums of money. The only other way to go is to be a professional, and that's more time consuming! I think the number of people who can afford to go to Mars and want to go will be quite small for quite a while though.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- There are companies with enormous and partially idle engineering resources. Caterpillar, AECOM, and numerous others have the technical might to solve corners of the problem without breaking a sweat. But why would they? It could help them compete for talent, provide prestige, training, brand development, or could form part of an incentives package with policy support.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Open Source/Volunteer/Collaborative Venture</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">This approach is very underdeveloped. Part of funding the space program is about finding ways to make it cheaper. There are tens of thousands of qualified engineers out there who could contribute their time after hours, if only there was a mechanism, platform, or more precisely, a protocol to form the method of exchange. While few in number, there are some prominent success stories borne of this approach, including the Linux kernel and open source software more generally. Applying OSS/Agile/SWE techniques to hardware engineering is an area of active experimentation. But finding a way to tie together any program that must involve more engineers than can fit in a meeting with something better than the status quo - reams of paper - is a goldmine in itself. If a hardware-oriented project management mechanism became the defacto standard, like git etc. has in software, then this provides an additional incentive for large companies to contribute resources to the problem.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Policy/Government</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Policy or law is the biggest stick with which to hit this problem by far. It's also the hardest to motivate, though perhaps a first move from a private company could see multiple governments reactively entering the space. </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Revision of the outer space treaty can enable a land grab or resource race. There are precedents for the governing body to issue resource or access licenses preferentially based on contributions to the central task. Either way, there needs to be well developed mechanisms for ownership, disposition of risk, dispute resolution, and evolution of the standards as new problems manifest.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Jobs program. Just spend a whole lot of money in key districts and states. Not the best way to minimize costs, but probably the best way to mobilize public money.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Social movement. Oriented towards planetary defense or fear of losing ground to a rival nation.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Restructuring of defense budget. This is the biggest slice of the pie by far, and most of the same companies would be making the money. Would require a broad consensus, so hard to do in a proactive way.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Bailout/rescue of failing private mission. Perhaps private space development needs additional investment to rescue the sector or safeguard strategically important technology. There is a precedent for this in the resurgence of the Russian space program in the 1990s due to strategic foreign investment.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Industrial capture</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Many of the above approaches place a lot of control or uncertainty beyond the realm where it can be definitively controlled. A more direct method is to directly create wealth and then use it for whatever you want, as long as that is space settlement. At its core, all wealth is created the same way. Create demand, then control supply. The more of each, the better. Creation of whole new classes of things to own, or whole new markets, are surefire ways to create the opportunity for fabulous wealth. </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Technology. Invent a magic widget everyone wants. Or find a way of generating something (eg energy) more cheaply. Defend the IP. Bank the difference.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Capture an industry. Is there a big industry out there with lots of revenue, lots of profit, and low competitiveness? Time to disrupt. SpaceX seems to be making a play towards satellite internet (a whole blog post in itself) and large infrastructure projects. The Boring Company seems poised to exploit a lot of latent demand for reduced travel time in congested cities.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Space mining/resource exploitation. If it was possible to mine certain strategic resources in space and find a market for them, then an industry devoted to that could be financed or bootstrap. The main obstacle to this concept is the sheer cost of doing anything in space. It may even be cheaper to supply the moon with anything it needs from Earth, rather than to obtain it locally. Mars will need local resources, but it's hard to imagine something valuable enough to be worth shipping all the way back to Earth, except passengers and functional spaceships. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Exotic/Enabling tech</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">One way to reduce the required sums of money dramatically is with advanced or even exotic technology. I'll rank these roughly by level of plausibility.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Re-usability and in situ resource utilization. This alone can reduce current costs by a factor of 100 or more.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Space power. There is probably no way to make money selling space-based solar power to the ground, but space nuclear reactors for use on Mars or gigantic mirrors for terraforming are an interesting concept.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- In space manufacturing. One driver of space costs is launch costs. Launch a factory once and make everything in space (from asteroids, say) and that problem can go away. It's not clear to me what the critical size of this industry is, but I'd estimate somewhere north of a million tonnes produced per year before launching from Earth becomes bottlenecked somehow. Note that self-replicating robots lower costs on Earth too!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Advanced propulsion. Anywhere from nuclear thermal rockets to warp drive. There's no reason why such concepts can't be developed in parallel with existing methods, but I don't think it's a good reason to wait.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">- Life extension. Perhaps during my lifetime we'll solve aging and humans, freed from their four score and ten will think about problems on a longer time scale. I think life extension is probably key to very long space voyages, and may unlock ways to avoid possible space-related illnesses. But I'm not holding my breath.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Conclusion</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">What do you think? Which of these sources will prove to be the most enabling?</span></p><div><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><br></span></div></span></div> Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3784553273521533552.post-61445064537056491572017-09-06T12:35:00.003+10:002017-09-06T12:35:35.640+10:00Honeymoon<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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After our wedding (blogged by C at <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://medium.com/@corbett/aotearoaconf-2017-aka-christine-and-casey-got-married-d4640fdc3569&source=gmail&ust=1504751138572000&usg=AFQjCNF8jLLvY1yMaCPNo_uieMcHodPgCw" href="https://medium.com/@corbett/aotearoaconf-2017-aka-christine-and-casey-got-married-d4640fdc3569" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">https://medium.com/@corbett/<wbr></wbr>aotearoaconf-2017-aka-<wbr></wbr>christine-and-casey-got-<wbr></wbr>married-d4640fdc3569</a>), C and I went on an eclipse-themed honeymoon! </div>
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Photos - <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://photos.app.goo.gl/W0QVA6Fwp8gQ6x9n2&source=gmail&ust=1504751138572000&usg=AFQjCNE_2GuMFv2nnpVJXw_p8mrQFO0vew" href="https://photos.app.goo.gl/W0QVA6Fwp8gQ6x9n2" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">https://photos.app.goo.gl/W0QV<wbr></wbr>A6Fwp8gQ6x9n2</a></div>
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Twitter honeymoon coverage - <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://twitter.com/search?f%3Dtweets%26vertical%3Ddefault%26q%3D%2523astrohoneymoon%26src%3Dtypd&source=gmail&ust=1504751138572000&usg=AFQjCNE70hY_3-Ce-PX8Gh6IOGHrGoJoDg" href="https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&vertical=default&q=%23astrohoneymoon&src=typd" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/search?f=t<wbr></wbr>weets&vertical=default&q=%23as<wbr></wbr>trohoneymoon&src=typd</a> </div>
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One doesn't always get the chance to take a week of holiday, so we had grand plans. We had already driven Space Car up to the bay area, so after finishing up at the NASA Frontier Development Lab, I hit the road and got stuck in awful traffic and searing heat for nearly four hours. </div>
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But I persisted and eventually made it to Davis, where I met C (just done with a public policy event at Sacramento) and another friend S. After a hearty dinner, we drove east, and a pigeon tried unsuccessfully to land on our car. We didn't stop, but shot up the Donner Pass and found the sketchiest hotel in all of Reno. We insisted on changing out of a room with multiple blood stains on the lamp shades (of all places!) to one with plastic bags over the smoke detectors. </div>
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The next morning we left Reno in great haste and drove east, stopping outside Tesla's Gigafactory for breakfast. The road took us east and north past Winnemucca to, eventually, Boise. Boise has a bizarre hotel with themed suites, and we stayed in the Sleeping Beauty room. It had a castle, suit of armor, waterfall and large bathtub, and the bedroom was inside a cylindrical tower. We explored the city and had a dinner so late (8pm) that I fell asleep on the plate.</div>
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<img alt="Inline image 8" class="CToWUd a6T" height="306" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&view=fimg&th=15e55015dcac67b1&attid=0.2&disp=emb&realattid=ii_15e54ffd63287494&attbid=ANGjdJ-Z7CA2rK_xf1nVEMZNCC3uW20_YxK0yowgNlSIyFBq6qWb5_fkq4xBggCo0yS47tfH-uJUTqIOswNef9OxHtFNmD834wlopyjqOlEWGWZ4UxBvnw5ZRzTJurM&sz=w1088-h612&ats=1504664738567&rm=15e55015dcac67b1&zw&atsh=1" style="cursor: pointer; outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="544" /></div>
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The next day we drove a few more miles north west to Ontario, just over the Snake River in Oregon. We started to run into people who looked like they might be eclipse hunting, with telescopes, filters, and themed teeshirts. We did some eclipse spotting location testing, but mostly found a series of depressing towns around Weiser. Back in town we checked into a hotel, met our friend M who had flown into the airport, and eventually found a terrific Mexican restaurant behind the truck stop behind the other truck stop, where everything was cooked in lard. As it should be! </div>
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Migrants on the Oregon Trail would travel down Snake River to Farewell Bend, the last place to die a good death before traversing hundreds of miles of deserts to the west. Today, it's a lovely state park and on this day it was full of cars and people all set to have themselves a wonderful time. </div>
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We arrived at Farewell Bend about an hour before first contact, and the place was very busy. We parked Space Car about a mile up the road, loaded up with gear (inflatable couch, binoculars, filters, camera, camp food and cooking equipment, sunglasses, hats, water, drone) and walked in. We found a patch of lush grass between widely spaced trees (for shade) and got settled. A nearby viewer introduced himself as a 60s era Caltech alum working on cold fusion, and a few dozen yards down the hill were a bunch of amateur astronomers with all kinds of telescopes and fancy filters.</div>
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Farewell Bend is the place where people on the Oregon Trail left Snake River to cross the desert to the west, and to this day it has a great outlook over the river and some mostly barren hills opposite. The sun was high, and the sky was totally cloudless. We got our gear in order and settled in. I ran into another more recent Caltech alum by a line of suspiciously neat porta-potties. </div>
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At every point during the event the crowds' collective murmurs kept us informed as to what was going on. Christine and I wore shirts with variations on "scientist! ask me anything" written on them, but everyone we talked to seemed to know more than we did. Later, someone said it was their 12th eclipse and not as good as the one last year!</div>
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Around 10:20am first contact occurred, when our filtered binoculars showed the edge of the moon touching the edge of the sun. The moon progressed toward the lower left, over the next 70 minutes covering more and more of the sun until, with just minutes before totality, the light got noticeably darker, the colours stood out like an overly-processed photograph, and shadows got sharper. Dappled shade behind trees was a total mess of overlapping crescents - the splotches of light in the shade of trees are, afterall, slightly defocused images of the sun.</div>
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<img alt="Inline image 9" class="CToWUd a6T" height="306" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&view=fimg&th=15e55015dcac67b1&attid=0.1&disp=emb&realattid=ii_15e5500e21a3cc6a&attbid=ANGjdJ-xeqs3zfEwGhBuY-mQbXAx7aaJwXZGBn97fziykGhnAuYzkV9igolHnwGzTnwNGHc52ND0uOuTSHZzi47fW6UJ-6-dDpSAygcucUZ_7j1-kGB0VIkUnyb8bG8&sz=w1088-h612&ats=1504664738568&rm=15e55015dcac67b1&zw&atsh=1" style="cursor: pointer; outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="544" /></div>
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A minute before totality, the area of the sun was so reduced that ripples in the atmosphere bent the light coherently enough to get shadow bands, rushing streaks of black and white like the bottom of a pool. It was as though, in the last rapid fading of the day's light, the light itself was breaking into shards. </div>
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The opposite sky darkened and the moon's shadow rushed towards us at the speed of the fastest military planes and, with the last diamond of the sun extinguished, the sky became totally black. Venus, Mars, and Mercury were all visible. The horizon was sunset colours in 360 degrees. The sun was now an inky black disk, like a hole in the sky, with the light coloured streaks of the solar corona shooting out from both sides, like a mustachioed devil. Through unfiltered binoculars we could see two solar prominences in vivid pinkish purple at about 2 o'clock and 5 o'clock on the face of the sun. </div>
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Despite promises, birds didn't go nuts (though I saw this in an annular eclipse a few years back), but a few dogs and children lost their minds. </div>
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Two minutes felt like two seconds, and the sun peeped out from the other side. The moon's shadow rushed away up the opposite hills, the sky steadily lightened, shadows returned and then began to gradually blur once more, though tree shadows looked weird for much of the next hour. By 12:44pm it was all over. We ate some lunch, crashed a toy drone 4000 times (learning!) and eventually drove out via some amazing windmills. Traffic was pretty reasonable - nothing like the horror we were yet to encounter in Yellowstone.</div>
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We returned to the crazy Boise hotel and this time stayed in the Treasure Island suite, themed as a sailing ship with a crows nest, plank, beach, and coconut palm shower. We found a local place with a secret vegan menu, did some work, and then passed out. Solar eclipses are amazing. I highly recommend them!</div>
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<img alt="Inline image 1" class="CToWUd a6T" height="306" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&view=fimg&th=15e55015dcac67b1&attid=0.4&disp=emb&realattid=ii_15e54fb1270cd607&attbid=ANGjdJ-k07j3bdL4Ppm4Ves6Tws130sdnMg1ClZkwKKG9sbxSwQ6rv6H8vrPxhAez2Rzzu6pdsq5rfBW8ZBd_ND9z7h0wGkl08nem9j8drLj7WXxbbH9lzhhgN5rTOg&sz=w1088-h612&ats=1504664738569&rm=15e55015dcac67b1&zw&atsh=1" style="cursor: pointer; margin-right: 0px; outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="544" /></div>
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The next day we headed further east, stopping at the incredible lava fields of Craters of the Moon National Monument (also full of people), and hiking through a huge lava tube. We had a freeze-dried risotto for lunch, then drove on to Jackson in Wyoming, which contained numerous examples of extreme mediocrity for extreme expense. But was rather pretty for all that.</div>
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<img alt="Inline image 2" class="CToWUd a6T" height="306" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&view=fimg&th=15e55015dcac67b1&attid=0.6&disp=emb&realattid=ii_15e54fb94b6407b7&attbid=ANGjdJ-GM6CuoZwREMFlTMeV-1eRBBs-dMVhA-4VpinLf1T-tmt-z1R6PMhiT6K_VsvxlI1elyXIczqm6MbLJtiZseqYvzF1x-tkVq69hi7eezR2U4byB4Fb1UMAoqc&sz=w1088-h612&ats=1504664738569&rm=15e55015dcac67b1&zw&atsh=1" style="cursor: pointer; outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="544" /></div>
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The next day we drove north to Yellowstone National Park, where we spent 2 hours in crawling traffic because a 3 mile section of road was reduced to one lane - but eventually made it to the geyser fields, which were pretty good. I have seen the geysers in New Zealand and Kamchatka, so I suppose the next stop is Iceland? We walked around all of them, watched Old Faithful do its thing, and eventually drove north and west out of the park, enduring only 10 more miles of stop-go traffic, and nearly running out of gas. Once back in Montana and Idaho, we stepped on the gas, getting dinner at Olive Garden (at least a pound of pasta) and staying the night in Pocatello. </div>
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<img alt="Inline image 3" class="CToWUd a6T" height="306" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&view=fimg&th=15e55015dcac67b1&attid=0.9&disp=emb&realattid=ii_15e54fc44c660a17&attbid=ANGjdJ_wA-ywz8smDldMDO2_pLRFdm2ZNxLRshkrn7mPtgLyOXgkVqw-jQmDAme8EHUJfm0BaE8ITpVMkEBuXSZM6uk-fQZEGBRsVVbAVcAMYC2ASMdLl41DRfQgROA&sz=w1088-h612&ats=1504664738570&rm=15e55015dcac67b1&zw&atsh=1" style="cursor: pointer; outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="544" /></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">The next day we drove south once more into Utah and got lunch in Salt Lake City. We listened to Book of Mormon to celebrate, then visited the library and the Grand American Hotel, which was staggeringly overdone. We had orange juice while a harp played! We left town, following wind turbines through a gap in the mountains to the east of the city and, after only the usual two or three hours at blazing speed, arrived at Canyonlands National Park in time for sunset, which was pretty fun. On the way out, we saw a fox and some deer, then spent the night at hotel in Moab. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><img alt="Inline image 4" class="CToWUd a6T" height="306" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&view=fimg&th=15e55015dcac67b1&attid=0.7&disp=emb&realattid=ii_15e54fd1000d75be&attbid=ANGjdJ8tk4UdTmQifdT4ezBM2XcwHdyjVVAH3wJbV959UwMicgBXxeAUGf_2FkgH-7P11GUvrgfG9BEQ7lpxXu6BUOQzTyWWxf9jkBNk8ULxDhRnKW-Xw5Xc1fINA24&sz=w1088-h612&ats=1504664738570&rm=15e55015dcac67b1&zw&atsh=1" style="cursor: pointer; outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="544" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Next morning we got underway early, visiting the busy and hot Arches National Park, which contained people, hundreds of stone arches, and balancing rocks, then cut west across rural Utah along the most mindbending Interstate (I70) I'd ever seen, eventually arriving at Bryce Canyon. C had never heard of it before so I got a picture of her face when she got to the edge of the cliff. We didn't have time to dispatch a long hike, so we headed on past Mt Carmel Junction to Zion, enjoying the tunnel and staying in the lodge, eating at the grill, and generally living the life. Once again we saw the Milky Way and some deer before bed.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><img alt="Inline image 5" class="CToWUd a6T" height="306" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&view=fimg&th=15e55015dcac67b1&attid=0.5&disp=emb&realattid=ii_15e54fd71a4f25c9&attbid=ANGjdJ8Nk2m5uxzjc0Ghx0tXsADrODrZdjaM7FqASmOchdSogiAeHJIzr-iKXvBmmtZnlF8YwZiAa8HDCviJrSyrDRJOOaBX1-yCdxJP9vp4FKdNrwIJvZGl1Gix9nA&sz=w1088-h612&ats=1504664738570&rm=15e55015dcac67b1&zw&atsh=1" style="cursor: pointer; outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="544" /></span></div>
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The next day we offset some of our enforced idleness by waking as early as 7 (!) and quickly strolling up Angel's Landing, a spectacular viewpoint looking out over the whole of Zion Canyon, accessed by a perilously narrow (4' wide) ridge with a 1000 feet drop on both sides. We followed that with a nice walk up The Narrows, took in lunch at the grill, drove back to the I15, down the Virgin River Canyon, then stopped in at Valley of Fire State Park. The Mormons also traveled through here, but I just love the red rocks, bluish plants, prehistoric carvings, animal tracks, dinosaur tracks, and weird shapes. </div>
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<img alt="Inline image 6" class="CToWUd a6T" height="306" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&view=fimg&th=15e55015dcac67b1&attid=0.3&disp=emb&realattid=ii_15e54fe7add0b155&attbid=ANGjdJ_ij6xGOxYCG9l8r59X3xDvXoATd_PxfxXt7YKV_T0m4rslqyiitK2RKWOQK7RoaHMeINsSR9TbaHnSFAaySD3PYJL8ZyzFVD2kYNmfVzlt4ZQj1iFpbPi9780&sz=w1088-h612&ats=1504664738571&rm=15e55015dcac67b1&zw&atsh=1" style="cursor: pointer; outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="544" /></div>
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Heading south we also stopped at Hyperloop One's test track by Apex Parkway, where I pointed out to C what parts I'd designed. The most obvious feature is the subtle curve of the tube following the landscape, though the original design was 12x as long! <span style="font-size: 12.8px;">Finally we got into Vegas, eventually managed to check in at the Rio (I wouldn't go back...), took in the Carnival World Buffet, the Penn and Teller magic show, then went to sleep. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.8px;"><img alt="Inline image 7" class="CToWUd a6T" height="408" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=ff20aea92d&view=fimg&th=15e55015dcac67b1&attid=0.8&disp=emb&realattid=ii_15e54ff0b2e5921a&attbid=ANGjdJ_jh58r08b3axBtXFtLi6pvnuUOds0FqEA8ZDKGGd_8TV6--8VQIXgOTnF_VGOq-bObXGd6ZQF_nUffK0IjgPGAN4Lpwjo2PVu5g7qZeulS91pu8Rg-YQSHMqE&sz=w1088-h816&ats=1504664738571&rm=15e55015dcac67b1&zw&atsh=1" style="cursor: pointer; outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="544" /></span></div>
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The next day we flew the drone around the room, had a $50 room service breakfast (stale cornflakes), checked out, then drove back to LA via the Baker Thermometer and the Victorville Whiskey Barrel, another establishment with a secret vegan menu. The Cajon pass on the 15 down to the LA basin is one of the scariest roads I've ever driven, but soon enough we were back in LA, exhausted but happy to be home.<br />
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And that is how we conducted our #astrohoneymoon. </div>
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Casey Handmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10894614796135316267noreply@blogger.com0